GPI
Group 1 Automotive, Inc. Consumer Cyclical - Auto & Truck Dealerships Investor Relations →
Group 1 Automotive, Inc. (GPI) closed at $246.42 as of 2026-09-18, trading 23.9% below its 200-week moving average of $323.82. This places GPI in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -14.0% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 34, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.8x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.79 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1459 weeks of data, GPI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 20 times. On average, these episodes lasted 23 weeks. Historically, investors who bought GPI at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +27.8%.
With a market cap of $2.9 billion, GPI is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 4.6%. Return on equity stands at 9.5%. The stock trades at 1.0x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 15.7% over the past three years.
Over the past 28 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in GPI would have grown to $1773, compared to $1123 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 10.8% vs 9.0% for the index — confirming GPI as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 3 open-market purchases totaling $72,604,334. Multiple insiders purchased within a 30-day window — a cluster buy pattern that historically signals management confidence in the company's prospects. Notably, these purchases occurred while GPI is trading below its 200-week moving average — insiders are buying when the market is most pessimistic.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: GPI vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After GPI Crosses Below the Line?
Across 20 historical episodes, buying GPI when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +30.9% after 12 months (median +14.0%), compared to +13.5% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 65% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +55.8% vs +22.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment GPI crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices GPI would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where GPI's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-27.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $234.84 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $255.91 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $281.13 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $311.88 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $350.17 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | $10.60 | $9.61 | -9.4% |
| 2026-04-30 | $8.82 | $8.66 | -1.8% |
| 2026-01-29 | $9.16 | $8.49 | -7.3% |
| 2025-10-28 | $10.73 | $10.45 | -2.6% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from GPI's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
GPI has crossed below its 200-week MA 20 times with an average 1-year return of +27.8% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1999 | Apr 2001 | 81 | 46.7% | -40.2% | +1740.3% |
| Nov 2002 | Nov 2002 | 2 | 12.6% | +86.6% | +1504.9% |
| Mar 2003 | Mar 2003 | 2 | 4.8% | +82.9% | +1379.8% |
| Aug 2004 | Nov 2004 | 16 | 7.9% | +8.7% | +979.5% |
| Jan 2005 | Nov 2005 | 46 | 20.1% | +9.5% | +929.7% |
| Jul 2007 | Oct 2009 | 116 | 82.6% | -48.5% | +756.8% |
| Oct 2009 | Mar 2010 | 18 | 19.7% | +38.7% | +1034.2% |
| May 2010 | Sep 2010 | 20 | 17.5% | +52.5% | +975.4% |
| Jan 2016 | Nov 2016 | 46 | 29.4% | +33.8% | +357.4% |
| Apr 2017 | Sep 2017 | 25 | 24.1% | -4.9% | +304.4% |
| Oct 2017 | Oct 2017 | 2 | 1.9% | -19.7% | +283.2% |
| Dec 2017 | Jan 2018 | 1 | 0.6% | -25.3% | +274.0% |
| Feb 2018 | Mar 2018 | 1 | 3.8% | -8.5% | +283.5% |
| Mar 2018 | May 2018 | 10 | 14.0% | -4.3% | +312.9% |
| Jun 2018 | Jul 2018 | 5 | 11.0% | +32.0% | +318.3% |
| Sep 2018 | Apr 2019 | 27 | 27.3% | +41.6% | +304.7% |
| Mar 2020 | Jul 2020 | 18 | 48.8% | +236.9% | +396.5% |
| Mar 2026 | Mar 2026 | 1 | 2.0% | N/A | -17.5% |
| Jun 2026 | Jul 2026 | 6 | 9.2% | N/A | -20.6% |
| Jul 2026 | Ongoing | 8+ | 23.9% | Ongoing | -13.9% |
| Average | 23 | — | +27.8% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GPI below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-09-18, Group 1 Automotive, Inc. (GPI) is trading 23.9% below its 200-week moving average of $323.82. The current price is $246.42.
What is GPI's 200-week moving average price?
Group 1 Automotive, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $323.82 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when GPI drops below its 200-week moving average?
GPI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 20 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +27.8%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 23 weeks on average.
Is GPI a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about GPI as of 2026-09-18: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 34. Free cash flow yield is 4.6%. Return on equity is 9.5%. Price-to-book is 1.0x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does GPI compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 28 years, $100 invested in GPI would have grown to $1773, compared to $1123 for the S&P 500. That's 10.8% annualized vs 9.0% for the index. GPI has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does GPI pay a dividend?
Yes. Group 1 Automotive, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 89.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18