GIS
General Mills Inc. Consumer Staples - Food Investor Relations →
General Mills Inc. (GIS) closed at $36.32 as of 2026-09-18, trading 34.1% below its 200-week moving average of $55.08. This places GIS in the extreme value zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -35.1% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 56, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.3x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.16 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2378 weeks of data, GIS has crossed below its 200-week moving average 15 times. On average, these episodes lasted 18 weeks. Historically, investors who bought GIS at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +11.5%.
With a market cap of $19.4 billion, GIS is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 11.9%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at -1.0%. The stock trades at 3.5x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 9.0% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in GIS would have grown to $749, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. GIS has returned 6.1% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -8% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: GIS vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After GIS Crosses Below the Line?
Across 15 historical episodes, buying GIS when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +9.2% after 12 months (median +8.0%), compared to +17.4% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 53% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +17.1% vs +35.9% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment GIS crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices GIS would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where GIS's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-09-23.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $24.89 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $28.04 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $32.10 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $37.54 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $45.19 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-01 | $0.80 | $0.95 | +19.2% |
| 2026-03-18 | $0.73 | $0.64 | -12.1% |
| 2025-12-17 | $1.03 | $1.10 | +7.1% |
| 2025-09-17 | $0.82 | $0.86 | +5.5% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from GIS's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
GIS has crossed below its 200-week MA 15 times with an average 1-year return of +11.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1994 | Feb 1995 | 50 | 13.8% | +14.1% | +783.8% |
| May 1995 | May 1995 | 1 | 1.3% | +22.0% | +713.2% |
| Jan 2000 | Mar 2000 | 9 | 7.7% | +29.1% | +413.3% |
| Aug 2000 | Sep 2000 | 5 | 6.1% | +37.1% | +398.1% |
| Feb 2009 | Jun 2009 | 15 | 11.4% | +41.5% | +154.5% |
| Aug 2017 | Sep 2017 | 1 | 0.3% | -10.9% | -4.5% |
| Sep 2017 | Nov 2017 | 10 | 5.1% | -9.7% | +0.1% |
| Feb 2018 | Apr 2019 | 59 | 28.3% | -8.0% | -4.9% |
| May 2019 | Jun 2019 | 1 | 2.7% | +32.2% | -3.5% |
| Feb 2020 | Mar 2020 | 1 | 1.8% | +16.1% | -5.3% |
| Oct 2023 | Oct 2023 | 3 | 1.3% | +21.0% | -33.9% |
| Jan 2024 | Jan 2024 | 2 | 1.4% | -4.3% | -35.5% |
| Feb 2024 | Mar 2024 | 4 | 3.0% | -2.2% | -34.4% |
| Jun 2024 | Jul 2024 | 4 | 3.3% | -17.0% | -35.9% |
| Nov 2024 | Ongoing | 97+ | 43.8% | Ongoing | -37.0% |
| Average | 18 | — | +11.5% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GIS below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-09-18, General Mills Inc. (GIS) is trading 34.1% below its 200-week moving average of $55.08. The current price is $36.32.
What is GIS's 200-week moving average price?
General Mills Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $55.08 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when GIS drops below its 200-week moving average?
GIS has crossed below its 200-week moving average 15 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +11.5%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 18 weeks on average.
Is GIS a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about GIS as of 2026-09-18: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 56. Free cash flow yield is 11.9%. Return on equity is -1.0%. Price-to-book is 3.5x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does GIS compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.8 years, $100 invested in GIS would have grown to $749, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That's 6.1% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. GIS has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does GIS pay a dividend?
Yes. General Mills Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 666.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18