GHC
Graham Holdings Company Consumer Defensive - Education & Training Services Investor Relations →
Graham Holdings Company (GHC) closed at $1144.66 as of 2026-06-19, trading 43.2% above its 200-week moving average of $799.48. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 47.4% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 63, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.4x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.84 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2734 weeks of data, GHC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 23 times. On average, these episodes lasted 26 weeks. Historically, investors who bought GHC at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +20.7%.
With a market cap of $4.9 billion, GHC is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 4.2%. Return on equity stands at 6.7%. The stock trades at 1.0x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 8.9% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in GHC would have grown to $1250, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. GHC has returned 7.8% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 21.7% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: GHC vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After GHC Crosses Below the Line?
Across 16 historical episodes, buying GHC when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +6.1% after 12 months (median +9.0%), compared to +6.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 79% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +17.6% vs +18.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment GHC crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices GHC would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where GHC's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-29.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $1006.30 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $1045.53 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $1087.95 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $1133.96 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $1184.02 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from GHC's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
GHC has crossed below its 200-week MA 23 times with an average 1-year return of +20.7% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1974 | Mar 1974 | 5 | 23.9% | +22.4% | +75394.0% |
| May 1974 | Jun 1974 | 3 | 7.4% | +38.3% | +62345.6% |
| Jul 1974 | Feb 1975 | 30 | 28.1% | +41.5% | +61584.1% |
| Sep 1975 | Nov 1975 | 8 | 6.7% | +92.9% | +60115.4% |
| Dec 1975 | Dec 1975 | 2 | 3.8% | +97.1% | +59059.0% |
| Mar 1980 | Jul 1980 | 18 | 9.1% | +54.1% | +18633.7% |
| Sep 1990 | Feb 1991 | 20 | 22.6% | +1.4% | +1310.0% |
| Mar 1991 | Aug 1991 | 22 | 6.1% | +7.6% | +1246.6% |
| Sep 1991 | Feb 1992 | 20 | 23.9% | +11.3% | +1291.1% |
| Mar 1992 | Apr 1992 | 2 | 1.1% | +7.9% | +1238.3% |
| Jun 1992 | Aug 1992 | 10 | 4.1% | +4.6% | +1238.0% |
| Oct 1992 | Dec 1992 | 8 | 3.1% | +9.6% | +1208.0% |
| Aug 1993 | Sep 1993 | 4 | 2.9% | +8.7% | +1218.3% |
| Jul 2000 | Jul 2000 | 1 | 0.3% | +23.2% | +458.8% |
| Sep 2001 | Jan 2002 | 16 | 5.5% | +29.7% | +423.3% |
| Jul 2002 | Jul 2002 | 1 | 2.4% | +39.5% | +393.9% |
| Oct 2005 | May 2006 | 28 | 5.1% | -2.0% | +231.9% |
| Jun 2006 | Nov 2007 | 74 | 10.5% | -1.1% | +220.9% |
| Nov 2007 | Dec 2012 | 267 | 53.3% | -56.3% | +212.8% |
| Oct 2016 | Nov 2016 | 1 | 1.7% | +24.8% | +183.4% |
| Jan 2020 | Jan 2021 | 51 | 45.5% | +4.9% | +122.7% |
| Jun 2022 | Jul 2022 | 4 | 5.2% | +7.4% | +120.9% |
| Aug 2022 | Oct 2022 | 7 | 5.4% | +7.9% | +114.1% |
| Average | 26 | — | +20.7% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GHC below its 200-week moving average?
No. Graham Holdings Company (GHC) is currently 43.2% above its 200-week moving average of $799.48. It would need to fall to $799.48 to cross below the line.
What is GHC's 200-week moving average price?
Graham Holdings Company's 200-week moving average is $799.48 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when GHC drops below its 200-week moving average?
GHC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 23 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +20.7%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 26 weeks on average.
Is GHC a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about GHC as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 63. Free cash flow yield is 4.2%. Return on equity is 6.7%. Price-to-book is 1.0x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does GHC compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in GHC would have grown to $1250, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 7.8% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. GHC has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19