GHC
Graham Holdings Company Consumer Defensive - Education & Training Services Investor Relations →
Graham Holdings Company (GHC) closed at $1143.43 as of 2026-09-18, trading 36.5% above its 200-week moving average of $837.47. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 36.4% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 45, indicating neutral momentum.
A big jump in activity this week — 2.3x the usual volume, and the price went up. Significantly more people than usual decided to buy. This kind of surge, especially on a stock already below its 200-week average, can be an early sign that sentiment is shifting.
Over the past 2747 weeks of data, GHC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 23 times. On average, these episodes lasted 26 weeks. Historically, investors who bought GHC at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +20.7%.
With a market cap of $4.8 billion, GHC is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 5.5%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 11.9%. The stock trades at 1.0x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 8.9% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in GHC would have grown to $1251, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. GHC has returned 7.8% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 21.7% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: GHC vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After GHC Crosses Below the Line?
Across 16 historical episodes, buying GHC when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +6.1% after 12 months (median +9.0%), compared to +6.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 79% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +17.6% vs +18.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment GHC crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices GHC would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where GHC's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-28.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $1101.40 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $1162.53 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $1230.84 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $1307.68 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $1394.75 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | $14.83 | $19.46 | +31.2% |
| 2026-04-30 | $13.11 | $16.79 | +28.1% |
| 2026-02-25 | $14.05 | $11.45 | -18.5% |
| 2025-10-29 | $11.23 | $14.08 | +25.4% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from GHC's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
GHC has crossed below its 200-week MA 23 times with an average 1-year return of +20.7% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1974 | Mar 1974 | 5 | 23.9% | +22.4% | +75433.1% |
| May 1974 | Jun 1974 | 3 | 7.4% | +38.3% | +62378.0% |
| Jul 1974 | Feb 1975 | 30 | 28.1% | +41.5% | +61616.1% |
| Sep 1975 | Nov 1975 | 8 | 6.7% | +92.9% | +60146.7% |
| Dec 1975 | Dec 1975 | 2 | 3.8% | +97.1% | +59089.7% |
| Mar 1980 | Jul 1980 | 18 | 9.1% | +54.1% | +18643.4% |
| Sep 1990 | Feb 1991 | 20 | 22.7% | +1.4% | +1310.7% |
| Mar 1991 | Aug 1991 | 22 | 6.1% | +7.6% | +1247.3% |
| Sep 1991 | Feb 1992 | 20 | 23.9% | +11.3% | +1291.9% |
| Mar 1992 | Apr 1992 | 2 | 0.7% | +8.4% | +1239.0% |
| Jun 1992 | Aug 1992 | 10 | 4.2% | +4.6% | +1238.7% |
| Oct 1992 | Dec 1992 | 8 | 3.1% | +9.6% | +1208.7% |
| Aug 1993 | Sep 1993 | 4 | 3.0% | +8.7% | +1219.0% |
| Jul 2000 | Jul 2000 | 1 | 0.3% | +23.5% | +459.1% |
| Sep 2001 | Jan 2002 | 16 | 5.6% | +29.7% | +423.5% |
| Jul 2002 | Jul 2002 | 1 | 2.4% | +39.5% | +394.1% |
| Oct 2005 | May 2006 | 28 | 5.1% | -2.0% | +232.1% |
| Jun 2006 | Nov 2007 | 74 | 10.5% | -1.1% | +221.1% |
| Nov 2007 | Dec 2012 | 267 | 53.3% | -56.3% | +213.0% |
| Oct 2016 | Nov 2016 | 1 | 1.8% | +24.8% | +183.5% |
| Jan 2020 | Jan 2021 | 51 | 45.5% | +4.9% | +122.8% |
| Jun 2022 | Jul 2022 | 4 | 5.2% | +7.4% | +121.0% |
| Aug 2022 | Oct 2022 | 7 | 5.4% | +7.9% | +114.2% |
| Average | 26 | — | +20.7% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GHC below its 200-week moving average?
No. Graham Holdings Company (GHC) is currently 36.5% above its 200-week moving average of $837.47. It would need to fall to $837.47 to cross below the line.
What is GHC's 200-week moving average price?
Graham Holdings Company's 200-week moving average is $837.47 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when GHC drops below its 200-week moving average?
GHC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 23 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +20.7%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 26 weeks on average.
Is GHC a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about GHC as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 45. Free cash flow yield is 5.5%. Return on equity is 11.9%. Price-to-book is 1.0x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does GHC compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.8 years, $100 invested in GHC would have grown to $1251, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That's 7.8% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. GHC has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does GHC pay a dividend?
Yes. Graham Holdings Company currently pays a dividend yield of 66.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18