GGG
Graco Inc. Industrials - Fluid Handling Investor Relations →
Graco Inc. (GGG) closed at $76.26 as of 2026-09-18, trading 4.1% below its 200-week moving average of $79.51. This places GGG in the below line zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -3.5% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 54, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.5x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.73 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2378 weeks of data, GGG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 23 times. On average, these episodes lasted 8 weeks. Historically, investors who bought GGG at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +43.4%.
With a market cap of $12.4 billion, GGG is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 4.3%. Return on equity stands at 21.2%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 4.9x book value.
GGG passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 33.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in GGG would have grown to $23030, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 17.5% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming GGG as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 53.5% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: GGG vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After GGG Crosses Below the Line?
Across 8 historical episodes, buying GGG when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +4.7% after 12 months (median -14.0%), compared to -3.9% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 43% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +19.9% vs +10.3% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment GGG crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices GGG would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where GGG's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-21.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $64.30 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $68.59 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $73.48 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $79.13 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $85.73 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | $0.81 | $0.91 | +12.6% |
| 2026-04-22 | $0.74 | $0.66 | -11.1% |
| 2026-01-26 | $0.76 | $0.77 | +0.8% |
| 2025-10-22 | $0.74 | $0.73 | -1.1% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
the write-ups I read Simply Wall St · Visual company reports and write-ups. Free tier covers five reports a month. referral
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from GGG's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
GGG has crossed below its 200-week MA 23 times with an average 1-year return of +43.4% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1981 | Apr 1981 | 8 | 8.6% | +54.5% | +129870.8% |
| Mar 1982 | Mar 1982 | 1 | 0.2% | +30.8% | +109875.6% |
| Jul 1982 | Sep 1982 | 9 | 9.0% | +92.3% | +109875.6% |
| Oct 1982 | Nov 1982 | 2 | 1.4% | +73.1% | +109875.6% |
| Jul 1984 | Jul 1984 | 3 | 8.5% | +25.6% | +88562.5% |
| Dec 1984 | Jan 1985 | 4 | 8.4% | +86.0% | +88562.5% |
| Mar 1985 | Apr 1985 | 1 | 6.4% | +145.5% | +86547.6% |
| Apr 1985 | May 1985 | 3 | 5.7% | +163.8% | +81016.8% |
| Apr 1989 | May 1989 | 5 | 3.4% | +37.4% | +36067.0% |
| Jul 1989 | Sep 1989 | 10 | 7.4% | +42.9% | +34765.3% |
| Sep 1989 | Oct 1989 | 4 | 0.6% | +0.2% | +33538.3% |
| Dec 1989 | Jan 1990 | 2 | 3.4% | +30.8% | +34015.4% |
| Jan 1990 | Feb 1990 | 2 | 2.0% | +44.3% | +33494.8% |
| Aug 1990 | Nov 1990 | 14 | 14.9% | +52.4% | +36973.0% |
| Dec 2007 | Mar 2008 | 13 | 10.4% | -26.8% | +798.3% |
| Jun 2008 | Jul 2008 | 1 | 0.1% | -40.5% | +724.9% |
| Jul 2008 | Aug 2008 | 2 | 2.3% | -29.8% | +731.3% |
| Sep 2008 | Mar 2010 | 82 | 59.3% | -29.2% | +741.0% |
| May 2010 | Jul 2010 | 7 | 8.7% | +69.1% | +868.1% |
| Aug 2010 | Sep 2010 | 6 | 7.5% | +35.0% | +884.0% |
| Jun 2022 | Jun 2022 | 1 | 1.1% | +53.0% | +41.2% |
| May 2026 | Jul 2026 | 11 | 6.3% | N/A | -1.3% |
| Aug 2026 | Ongoing | 4+ | 4.1% | Ongoing | -3.8% |
| Average | 8 | — | +43.4% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GGG below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-09-18, Graco Inc. (GGG) is trading 4.1% below its 200-week moving average of $79.51. The current price is $76.26.
What is GGG's 200-week moving average price?
Graco Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $79.51 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when GGG drops below its 200-week moving average?
GGG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 23 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +43.4%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 8 weeks on average.
Is GGG a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about GGG as of 2026-09-18: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 54. Free cash flow yield is 4.3%. Return on equity is 21.2%. Price-to-book is 4.9x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does GGG compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.8 years, $100 invested in GGG would have grown to $23030, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That's 17.5% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. GGG has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does GGG pay a dividend?
Yes. Graco Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 155.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18