GFF

Griffon Corporation Industrials - Building Products & Equipment Investor Relations →

NO
53.7% ABOVE
↓ Approaching Was 58.9% last week
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%+
Buy Threshold $59.30
14-Week RSI 68
Rel. Volume (14w) This week's trading vs. the 14-week average 1.3x
Buyers vs. Sellers (14w) Are up-weeks or down-weeks getting more volume? 0.83

Griffon Corporation (GFF) closed at $91.13 as of 2026-06-19, trading 53.7% above its 200-week moving average of $59.30. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 58.9% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 68, indicating neutral momentum.

Trading volume is running at 1.3x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.83 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.

Over the past 2724 weeks of data, GFF has crossed below its 200-week moving average 42 times. On average, these episodes lasted 29 weeks. Historically, investors who bought GFF at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +9.4%.

With a market cap of $4.2 billion, GFF is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 1.4%. Return on equity stands at 28.9%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 44.5x book value.

The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 18.8% over the past three years.

Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in GFF would have grown to $2105, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. GFF has returned 9.5% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.

Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.

Business Health

Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.

Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)

Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy

Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)

ROIC Return on invested capital (%)

FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal

Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)

Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)

Growth of $100: GFF vs S&P 500

Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.

What Happens After GFF Crosses Below the Line?

Across 22 historical episodes, buying GFF when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +10.2% after 12 months (median +14.0%), compared to +12.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 55% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +37.9% vs +32.2% for the index.

Each line shows $100 invested at the moment GFF crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.

Bean Score Experimental

The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices GFF would reach each dislocation threshold.

Current Bean Score -0.64σ
Current FCF Yield 7.19%
Baseline Yield 8.63%
Historical σ 0.81pp

Dislocation Price Levels

Prices where GFF's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-08-05.

LevelσPriceSignal
Deep Value+2σ$65.81Unusually cheap — potential buy zone
Value+1σ$72.09Cheap vs. own history
Fair Value+0σ$79.69Historical mean behavior
Expensive-1σ$89.09Expensive vs. own history
Deep Expensive-2σ$101.00Unusually expensive — potential trim zone

Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end

Data depth: 2 quarterly baselines, 22 price observations — Limited history (4+ quarters preferred for reliability)

Signal Accuracy Collecting Data

The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"

11 / 13 weeks minimum

Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.

Dislocation Scores Experimental

Each score measures deviation from GFF's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.

Yield Dislocation -0.72σ Dividend yield vs own 10-yr norm
Drawdown Score -0.85σ Distance from line vs own history
Sector-Relative -1.19σ Vs sector median this week
Buyback Acceleration +2.6pp YoY share change vs own 3-yr pace (− = accelerating)
Insider Intensity 23th TTM buys / market cap, percentile of buyers
FCF Yield vs History -8.2pp Vs own recent annual mean
Earnings Quality Stable Accrual gap trend (-2.6pp of revenue)

Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.

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Historical Touches

GFF has crossed below its 200-week MA 42 times with an average 1-year return of +9.4% after recovery.

Crossed BelowRecoveredWeeksMax Depth1-Year ReturnReturn Since Touch
Apr 1974Jul 19756566.6%-23.1%+790.5%
Jul 1975Feb 19762953.4%-18.2%+952.4%
Apr 1976Nov 19778249.3%-50.0%+1057.6%
Dec 1977Dec 197714.1%+25.0%+1347.0%
Dec 1977Mar 19781014.6%+12.5%+1347.0%
Mar 1978Apr 1978111.8%+42.9%+1553.7%
Oct 1978Oct 197814.5%N/A+1347.0%
Dec 1978Dec 197815.3%N/A+1347.0%
Mar 1979Mar 197925.0%N/A+1347.0%
Apr 1979Apr 197914.8%-12.5%+1347.0%
May 1979Jul 197964.1%-12.5%+1347.0%
Oct 1979Dec 19791017.0%-12.5%+1347.0%
Mar 1980Mar 19815526.8%-25.0%+1347.0%
May 1981Feb 198730085.9%-83.7%+1347.0%
Mar 1987Mar 198713.0%-27.8%+6331.1%
Apr 1987Apr 198725.8%-33.3%+6331.1%
May 1987Nov 198913244.4%-35.3%+6709.4%
Feb 1990Feb 1990115.1%+63.6%+10423.6%
Apr 1990May 1990513.8%+91.7%+9546.7%
Sep 1990Jan 19912020.4%+183.3%+9546.7%
Jul 1996Jul 199615.2%+102.5%+1829.3%
Aug 1998Jun 200114951.5%-30.7%+1294.7%
May 2007Jul 201016866.4%-60.7%+487.3%
Aug 2010Oct 2010811.9%-37.6%+999.0%
Oct 2010Nov 201026.7%-24.5%+959.1%
Nov 2010Dec 201031.6%-23.6%+985.4%
Jan 2011Feb 201145.6%-15.3%+1005.4%
May 2011Jan 20123532.8%-23.0%+1156.4%
Feb 2012Mar 201223.5%+15.5%+1209.9%
Apr 2012Dec 20123527.2%+10.7%+1188.0%
Apr 2013May 201336.4%+9.1%+1159.9%
Jun 2013Jun 201311.1%+16.6%+1119.3%
Apr 2014Apr 201410.1%+63.4%+1087.5%
Jul 2014Aug 201413.2%+66.6%+1126.2%
Oct 2014Oct 201410.2%+64.4%+1092.3%
Aug 2018Aug 201810.5%+10.6%+573.2%
Sep 2018Feb 20192141.8%+23.4%+578.5%
Mar 2019Mar 201910.1%-1.3%+561.9%
Apr 2019Jul 20191317.4%-8.4%+572.8%
Aug 2019Sep 201932.0%+31.2%+563.7%
Feb 2020Jul 20202045.8%+43.6%+547.7%
Apr 2022May 202248.3%+78.9%+506.0%
Average29+9.4%

Frequently Asked Questions

Is GFF below its 200-week moving average?

No. Griffon Corporation (GFF) is currently 53.7% above its 200-week moving average of $59.30. It would need to fall to $59.30 to cross below the line.

What is GFF's 200-week moving average price?

Griffon Corporation's 200-week moving average is $59.30 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.

What happens when GFF drops below its 200-week moving average?

GFF has crossed below its 200-week moving average 42 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +9.4%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 29 weeks on average.

Is GFF a good value right now?

Here's what our data says about GFF as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 68. Free cash flow yield is 1.4%. Return on equity is 28.9%. Price-to-book is 44.5x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.

How does GFF compare to the S&P 500?

Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in GFF would have grown to $2105, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 9.5% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. GFF has underperformed the broader market over this period.

Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Data as of week of 2026-06-19