GFF
Griffon Corporation Industrials - Building Products & Equipment Investor Relations →
Griffon Corporation (GFF) closed at $91.13 as of 2026-06-19, trading 53.7% above its 200-week moving average of $59.30. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 58.9% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 68, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.3x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.83 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2724 weeks of data, GFF has crossed below its 200-week moving average 42 times. On average, these episodes lasted 29 weeks. Historically, investors who bought GFF at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +9.4%.
With a market cap of $4.2 billion, GFF is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 1.4%. Return on equity stands at 28.9%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 44.5x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 18.8% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in GFF would have grown to $2105, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. GFF has returned 9.5% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: GFF vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After GFF Crosses Below the Line?
Across 22 historical episodes, buying GFF when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +10.2% after 12 months (median +14.0%), compared to +12.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 55% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +37.9% vs +32.2% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment GFF crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices GFF would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where GFF's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-08-05.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $65.81 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $72.09 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $79.69 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $89.09 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $101.00 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from GFF's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
GFF has crossed below its 200-week MA 42 times with an average 1-year return of +9.4% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1974 | Jul 1975 | 65 | 66.6% | -23.1% | +790.5% |
| Jul 1975 | Feb 1976 | 29 | 53.4% | -18.2% | +952.4% |
| Apr 1976 | Nov 1977 | 82 | 49.3% | -50.0% | +1057.6% |
| Dec 1977 | Dec 1977 | 1 | 4.1% | +25.0% | +1347.0% |
| Dec 1977 | Mar 1978 | 10 | 14.6% | +12.5% | +1347.0% |
| Mar 1978 | Apr 1978 | 1 | 11.8% | +42.9% | +1553.7% |
| Oct 1978 | Oct 1978 | 1 | 4.5% | N/A | +1347.0% |
| Dec 1978 | Dec 1978 | 1 | 5.3% | N/A | +1347.0% |
| Mar 1979 | Mar 1979 | 2 | 5.0% | N/A | +1347.0% |
| Apr 1979 | Apr 1979 | 1 | 4.8% | -12.5% | +1347.0% |
| May 1979 | Jul 1979 | 6 | 4.1% | -12.5% | +1347.0% |
| Oct 1979 | Dec 1979 | 10 | 17.0% | -12.5% | +1347.0% |
| Mar 1980 | Mar 1981 | 55 | 26.8% | -25.0% | +1347.0% |
| May 1981 | Feb 1987 | 300 | 85.9% | -83.7% | +1347.0% |
| Mar 1987 | Mar 1987 | 1 | 3.0% | -27.8% | +6331.1% |
| Apr 1987 | Apr 1987 | 2 | 5.8% | -33.3% | +6331.1% |
| May 1987 | Nov 1989 | 132 | 44.4% | -35.3% | +6709.4% |
| Feb 1990 | Feb 1990 | 1 | 15.1% | +63.6% | +10423.6% |
| Apr 1990 | May 1990 | 5 | 13.8% | +91.7% | +9546.7% |
| Sep 1990 | Jan 1991 | 20 | 20.4% | +183.3% | +9546.7% |
| Jul 1996 | Jul 1996 | 1 | 5.2% | +102.5% | +1829.3% |
| Aug 1998 | Jun 2001 | 149 | 51.5% | -30.7% | +1294.7% |
| May 2007 | Jul 2010 | 168 | 66.4% | -60.7% | +487.3% |
| Aug 2010 | Oct 2010 | 8 | 11.9% | -37.6% | +999.0% |
| Oct 2010 | Nov 2010 | 2 | 6.7% | -24.5% | +959.1% |
| Nov 2010 | Dec 2010 | 3 | 1.6% | -23.6% | +985.4% |
| Jan 2011 | Feb 2011 | 4 | 5.6% | -15.3% | +1005.4% |
| May 2011 | Jan 2012 | 35 | 32.8% | -23.0% | +1156.4% |
| Feb 2012 | Mar 2012 | 2 | 3.5% | +15.5% | +1209.9% |
| Apr 2012 | Dec 2012 | 35 | 27.2% | +10.7% | +1188.0% |
| Apr 2013 | May 2013 | 3 | 6.4% | +9.1% | +1159.9% |
| Jun 2013 | Jun 2013 | 1 | 1.1% | +16.6% | +1119.3% |
| Apr 2014 | Apr 2014 | 1 | 0.1% | +63.4% | +1087.5% |
| Jul 2014 | Aug 2014 | 1 | 3.2% | +66.6% | +1126.2% |
| Oct 2014 | Oct 2014 | 1 | 0.2% | +64.4% | +1092.3% |
| Aug 2018 | Aug 2018 | 1 | 0.5% | +10.6% | +573.2% |
| Sep 2018 | Feb 2019 | 21 | 41.8% | +23.4% | +578.5% |
| Mar 2019 | Mar 2019 | 1 | 0.1% | -1.3% | +561.9% |
| Apr 2019 | Jul 2019 | 13 | 17.4% | -8.4% | +572.8% |
| Aug 2019 | Sep 2019 | 3 | 2.0% | +31.2% | +563.7% |
| Feb 2020 | Jul 2020 | 20 | 45.8% | +43.6% | +547.7% |
| Apr 2022 | May 2022 | 4 | 8.3% | +78.9% | +506.0% |
| Average | 29 | — | +9.4% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GFF below its 200-week moving average?
No. Griffon Corporation (GFF) is currently 53.7% above its 200-week moving average of $59.30. It would need to fall to $59.30 to cross below the line.
What is GFF's 200-week moving average price?
Griffon Corporation's 200-week moving average is $59.30 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when GFF drops below its 200-week moving average?
GFF has crossed below its 200-week moving average 42 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +9.4%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 29 weeks on average.
Is GFF a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about GFF as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 68. Free cash flow yield is 1.4%. Return on equity is 28.9%. Price-to-book is 44.5x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does GFF compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in GFF would have grown to $2105, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 9.5% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. GFF has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19