GES
Guess?, Inc. Consumer Discretionary - Apparel Investor Relations →
Guess?, Inc. (GES) closed at $16.81 as of 2026-01-23, trading 4.3% above its 200-week moving average of $16.12. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 4.3% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 48, indicating neutral momentum.
A big spike in selling this week — 3.6x the usual volume, and the price dropped. Sometimes this kind of heavy selling marks the end of a decline. The idea is that the last reluctant holders have finally sold, leaving fewer sellers left to push the price lower.
Over the past 1489 weeks of data, GES has crossed below its 200-week moving average 19 times. On average, these episodes lasted 38 weeks. Historically, investors who bought GES at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +2.1%.
With a market cap of $877 million, GES is a small-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 4.2%. Return on equity stands at 17.2%, a solid level. The stock trades at 1.7x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 17.6% over the past three years.
Over the past 28.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in GES would have grown to $804, compared to $1189 for the S&P 500. GES has returned 7.6% annualized vs 9.0% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: GES vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After GES Crosses Below the Line?
Across 19 historical episodes, buying GES when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -1.2% after 12 months (median -9.0%), compared to +13.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 37% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +14.8% vs +30.8% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment GES crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
GES has crossed below its 200-week MA 19 times with an average 1-year return of +2.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 1997 | May 1999 | 95 | 61.3% | -56.5% | +708.8% |
| Sep 2000 | Oct 2003 | 158 | 68.0% | -42.7% | +591.9% |
| Oct 2008 | Aug 2009 | 45 | 61.3% | +38.2% | +43.6% |
| May 2010 | Jul 2010 | 7 | 7.2% | +31.9% | +10.8% |
| Aug 2010 | Sep 2010 | 2 | 3.7% | +1.7% | +11.3% |
| Aug 2011 | Feb 2012 | 25 | 19.9% | +10.1% | +15.8% |
| Mar 2012 | May 2013 | 62 | 29.2% | -15.4% | +8.2% |
| Jun 2013 | Jul 2013 | 2 | 1.4% | -10.6% | +3.2% |
| Aug 2013 | Oct 2013 | 10 | 9.4% | -14.2% | +3.1% |
| Jan 2014 | Feb 2014 | 7 | 8.0% | -27.6% | +4.6% |
| Mar 2014 | Dec 2017 | 197 | 47.4% | -36.6% | +9.5% |
| Jan 2018 | Mar 2018 | 7 | 8.9% | +35.7% | +73.7% |
| Jun 2019 | Jun 2019 | 3 | 11.8% | -9.0% | +67.0% |
| Aug 2019 | Aug 2019 | 2 | 11.1% | -9.4% | +68.9% |
| Feb 2020 | Nov 2020 | 38 | 62.5% | +58.0% | +45.7% |
| Mar 2022 | Mar 2022 | 1 | 6.8% | +30.8% | +31.0% |
| Jun 2022 | Jul 2022 | 5 | 7.5% | +20.2% | +23.5% |
| Aug 2022 | Nov 2022 | 11 | 18.1% | +31.2% | +22.3% |
| Oct 2024 | Aug 2025 | 43 | 45.1% | +4.7% | +3.9% |
| Average | 38 | — | +2.1% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GES below its 200-week moving average?
No. Guess?, Inc. (GES) is currently 4.3% above its 200-week moving average of $16.12. It would need to fall to $16.12 to cross below the line.
What is GES's 200-week moving average price?
Guess?, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $16.12 as of 2026-01-23. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when GES drops below its 200-week moving average?
GES has crossed below its 200-week moving average 19 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +2.1%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 38 weeks on average.
Is GES a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about GES as of 2026-01-23: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 48. Free cash flow yield is 4.2%. Return on equity is 17.2%. Price-to-book is 1.7x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does GES compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 28.6 years, $100 invested in GES would have grown to $804, compared to $1189 for the S&P 500. That's 7.6% annualized vs 9.0% for the index. GES has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does GES pay a dividend?
Yes. Guess?, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 5.35%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-01-23