GERN
Geron Corporation Healthcare - Biotechnology Investor Relations →
Geron Corporation (GERN) closed at $1.53 as of 2026-02-02, trading 38.3% below its 200-week moving average of $2.48. This places GERN in the extreme value zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -44.8% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 65, indicating neutral momentum.
Over the past 1492 weeks of data, GERN has crossed below its 200-week moving average 31 times. On average, these episodes lasted 31 weeks. Historically, investors who bought GERN at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +15.4%.
With a market cap of $977 million, GERN is a small-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at -29.6%. The stock trades at 3.9x book value.
Share count has increased 87.3% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 28.7 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in GERN would have grown to $25, compared to $1187 for the S&P 500. GERN has returned -4.7% annualized vs 9.0% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Growth of $100: GERN vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After GERN Crosses Below the Line?
Across 31 historical episodes, buying GERN when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +10.8% after 12 months (median -9.0%), compared to +12.2% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 42% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +2.6% vs +16.2% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment GERN crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
GERN has crossed below its 200-week MA 31 times with an average 1-year return of +15.4% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 1997 | Aug 1997 | 5 | 29.1% | +26.9% | -78.2% |
| Nov 1997 | Jan 1998 | 8 | 9.7% | +30.8% | -82.3% |
| Jun 1998 | Nov 1998 | 21 | 52.7% | +27.8% | -82.0% |
| Apr 1999 | Apr 1999 | 3 | 4.8% | +196.6% | -82.5% |
| Oct 1999 | Nov 1999 | 1 | 4.2% | +134.9% | -83.0% |
| Nov 1999 | Nov 1999 | 1 | 1.1% | +126.8% | -83.5% |
| Mar 2001 | Aug 2001 | 24 | 36.5% | -42.6% | -88.8% |
| Sep 2001 | Oct 2003 | 109 | 88.3% | -73.6% | -88.9% |
| Oct 2003 | Jan 2005 | 62 | 43.1% | -37.9% | -87.2% |
| Jan 2005 | May 2005 | 16 | 23.8% | -3.3% | -79.8% |
| Jun 2005 | Jun 2005 | 1 | 3.1% | -6.0% | -77.5% |
| May 2006 | Oct 2006 | 25 | 21.7% | +2.9% | -77.6% |
| Nov 2006 | Dec 2006 | 1 | 0.1% | -17.3% | -79.3% |
| Feb 2007 | May 2007 | 13 | 16.9% | -38.0% | -79.8% |
| Jun 2007 | Oct 2007 | 16 | 27.1% | -49.4% | -79.6% |
| Oct 2007 | Jan 2009 | 66 | 63.4% | -55.9% | -77.9% |
| Feb 2009 | Jun 2009 | 16 | 43.3% | -11.6% | -74.6% |
| Sep 2009 | Oct 2009 | 1 | 1.9% | -13.6% | -74.3% |
| Oct 2009 | Mar 2010 | 18 | 15.7% | -8.7% | -73.5% |
| Mar 2010 | Sep 2013 | 184 | 74.9% | -19.0% | -72.6% |
| Oct 2013 | Oct 2013 | 1 | 3.5% | -36.1% | -47.4% |
| Mar 2014 | Jun 2014 | 13 | 40.6% | +150.9% | -11.5% |
| Jul 2014 | Nov 2014 | 17 | 25.4% | +71.5% | -38.7% |
| Feb 2016 | Feb 2016 | 3 | 5.7% | -17.1% | -41.8% |
| May 2016 | May 2016 | 2 | 4.2% | -3.0% | -42.7% |
| Jun 2016 | Mar 2018 | 92 | 35.9% | -4.7% | -44.8% |
| Sep 2018 | Jun 2020 | 92 | 66.8% | -23.3% | -13.1% |
| Jul 2020 | Jun 2022 | 102 | 44.5% | -37.7% | -25.0% |
| Oct 2023 | Nov 2023 | 6 | 6.5% | +138.7% | -15.5% |
| Jan 2024 | Feb 2024 | 3 | 4.3% | +52.9% | -19.0% |
| Feb 2025 | Ongoing | 50+ | 56.7% | Ongoing | -13.1% |
| Average | 31 | — | +15.4% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02