GEO
The GEO Group, Inc. Industrials - Security & Protection Services Investor Relations →
The GEO Group, Inc. (GEO) closed at $29.28 as of 2026-06-19, trading 85.9% above its 200-week moving average of $15.75. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 81.8% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 90, GEO is in overbought territory.
Over the past 14 weeks, up-weeks have carried more volume than down-weeks (1.57 buyers-vs-sellers ratio). When trading picks up, it's more often on days the price is rising — buyers are showing more interest than sellers.
Over the past 1616 weeks of data, GEO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 25 times. On average, these episodes lasted 23 weeks. Historically, investors who bought GEO at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +21.1%.
With a market cap of $3.9 billion, GEO is a mid-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at 19.2%, a solid level. The stock trades at 2.5x book value.
Share count has increased 9.8% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 31 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in GEO would have grown to $2899, compared to $2276 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 11.5% vs 10.6% for the index — confirming GEO as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -100% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: GEO vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After GEO Crosses Below the Line?
Across 25 historical episodes, buying GEO when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +20.6% after 12 months (median +24.0%), compared to +13.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 71% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +33.1% vs +33.2% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment GEO crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. GEO currently has negative free cash flow, so price-based dislocation levels are not available. The score still tracks yield deviation from baseline.
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from GEO's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
GEO has crossed below its 200-week MA 25 times with an average 1-year return of +21.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1995 | Sep 1995 | 1 | 3.0% | +157.9% | +3332.7% |
| Oct 1995 | Oct 1995 | 1 | 1.0% | +89.7% | +3244.7% |
| Jul 1998 | Sep 1998 | 6 | 19.9% | +10.3% | +1686.9% |
| Oct 1998 | Oct 1998 | 1 | 5.0% | -28.1% | +1605.1% |
| Feb 1999 | Nov 2001 | 143 | 68.3% | -53.1% | +1530.5% |
| Nov 2001 | Jan 2002 | 6 | 13.9% | -12.3% | +2237.7% |
| Apr 2002 | Apr 2002 | 1 | 2.3% | -27.8% | +2224.4% |
| Jul 2002 | Aug 2002 | 2 | 8.6% | +22.6% | +2251.2% |
| Aug 2002 | Apr 2003 | 35 | 30.8% | +33.7% | +2315.6% |
| Oct 2008 | Dec 2008 | 9 | 19.2% | +40.2% | +632.5% |
| Jan 2009 | Sep 2009 | 38 | 36.0% | +25.0% | +504.9% |
| Nov 2009 | Nov 2009 | 2 | 1.7% | +20.7% | +443.5% |
| Jan 2010 | Aug 2010 | 32 | 10.9% | +16.3% | +446.0% |
| Jul 2011 | Apr 2012 | 39 | 20.8% | +6.2% | +406.3% |
| Nov 2015 | Nov 2015 | 1 | 3.4% | +23.9% | +167.5% |
| Dec 2015 | Jan 2016 | 7 | 5.4% | +35.8% | +156.9% |
| Feb 2016 | Feb 2016 | 2 | 9.3% | +81.2% | +174.8% |
| Aug 2016 | Nov 2016 | 12 | 29.3% | +71.6% | +186.7% |
| Feb 2018 | Feb 2018 | 2 | 5.4% | +27.2% | +104.6% |
| Mar 2018 | Apr 2018 | 2 | 2.3% | +0.7% | +97.6% |
| Dec 2018 | Jan 2019 | 3 | 6.4% | -7.3% | +93.9% |
| Mar 2019 | Apr 2019 | 7 | 6.5% | -26.7% | +92.6% |
| Jul 2019 | Nov 2022 | 176 | 63.3% | -30.2% | +90.6% |
| Feb 2023 | Oct 2023 | 36 | 22.7% | +28.2% | +206.9% |
| Feb 2026 | Mar 2026 | 5 | 9.3% | N/A | +106.1% |
| Average | 23 | — | +21.1% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GEO below its 200-week moving average?
No. The GEO Group, Inc. (GEO) is currently 85.9% above its 200-week moving average of $15.75. It would need to fall to $15.75 to cross below the line.
What is GEO's 200-week moving average price?
The GEO Group, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $15.75 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when GEO drops below its 200-week moving average?
GEO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 25 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +21.1%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 23 weeks on average.
Is GEO a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about GEO as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 90 (overbought). Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is 19.2%. Price-to-book is 2.5x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does GEO compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 31 years, $100 invested in GEO would have grown to $2899, compared to $2276 for the S&P 500. That's 11.5% annualized vs 10.6% for the index. GEO has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19