GEO
The GEO Group, Inc. Industrials - Security & Protection Services Investor Relations →
The GEO Group, Inc. (GEO) closed at $15.90 as of 2026-02-02, trading 9.3% above its 200-week moving average of $14.54. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 10.2% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 45, indicating neutral momentum.
Over the past 1597 weeks of data, GEO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 24 times. On average, these episodes lasted 24 weeks. Historically, investors who bought GEO at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +21.1%.
With a market cap of $2.3 billion, GEO is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 0.3%. Return on equity stands at 16.8%, a solid level. The stock trades at 1.4x book value.
Share count has increased 14.5% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 30.7 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in GEO would have grown to $1574, compared to $2094 for the S&P 500. GEO has returned 9.4% annualized vs 10.4% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -8.5% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Growth of $100: GEO vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After GEO Crosses Below the Line?
Across 24 historical episodes, buying GEO when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +20.6% after 12 months (median +24.0%), compared to +13.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 71% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +33.1% vs +33.2% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment GEO crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
GEO has crossed below its 200-week MA 24 times with an average 1-year return of +21.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1995 | Sep 1995 | 1 | 3.0% | +157.9% | +1764.1% |
| Oct 1995 | Oct 1995 | 1 | 1.0% | +89.7% | +1716.3% |
| Jul 1998 | Sep 1998 | 6 | 19.9% | +10.3% | +870.3% |
| Oct 1998 | Oct 1998 | 1 | 5.0% | -28.1% | +825.9% |
| Feb 1999 | Nov 2001 | 143 | 68.3% | -53.1% | +785.4% |
| Nov 2001 | Jan 2002 | 6 | 13.9% | -12.3% | +1169.4% |
| Apr 2002 | Apr 2002 | 1 | 2.3% | -27.8% | +1162.2% |
| Jul 2002 | Aug 2002 | 2 | 8.6% | +22.6% | +1176.8% |
| Aug 2002 | Apr 2003 | 35 | 30.8% | +33.7% | +1211.8% |
| Oct 2008 | Dec 2008 | 9 | 19.2% | +40.2% | +297.8% |
| Jan 2009 | Sep 2009 | 38 | 36.0% | +25.0% | +228.5% |
| Nov 2009 | Nov 2009 | 2 | 1.7% | +20.7% | +195.1% |
| Jan 2010 | Aug 2010 | 32 | 10.9% | +16.3% | +196.5% |
| Jul 2011 | Apr 2012 | 39 | 20.8% | +6.2% | +174.9% |
| Nov 2015 | Nov 2015 | 1 | 3.4% | +23.9% | +45.2% |
| Dec 2015 | Jan 2016 | 7 | 5.4% | +35.8% | +39.5% |
| Feb 2016 | Feb 2016 | 2 | 9.3% | +81.2% | +49.2% |
| Aug 2016 | Nov 2016 | 12 | 29.3% | +71.6% | +55.7% |
| Feb 2018 | Feb 2018 | 2 | 5.4% | +27.2% | +11.1% |
| Mar 2018 | Apr 2018 | 2 | 2.3% | +0.7% | +7.3% |
| Dec 2018 | Jan 2019 | 3 | 6.4% | -7.3% | +5.3% |
| Mar 2019 | Apr 2019 | 7 | 6.5% | -26.7% | +4.6% |
| Jul 2019 | Nov 2022 | 176 | 63.3% | -30.2% | +3.5% |
| Feb 2023 | Oct 2023 | 36 | 22.7% | +28.2% | +66.7% |
| Average | 24 | — | +21.1% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02