GEO
The GEO Group, Inc. Industrials - Security & Protection Services Investor Relations →
The GEO Group, Inc. (GEO) closed at $16.43 as of 2026-03-20, trading 11.2% above its 200-week moving average of $14.78. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -1.2% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 49, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.7x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.82 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1603 weeks of data, GEO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 25 times. On average, these episodes lasted 23 weeks. Historically, investors who bought GEO at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +21.1%.
With a market cap of $2.3 billion, GEO is a mid-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at 17.9%, a solid level. The stock trades at 1.5x book value.
Share count has increased 9.8% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 30.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in GEO would have grown to $1627, compared to $1972 for the S&P 500. GEO has returned 9.5% annualized vs 10.2% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -100% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: GEO vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After GEO Crosses Below the Line?
Across 24 historical episodes, buying GEO when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +20.6% after 12 months (median +24.0%), compared to +13.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 71% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +33.1% vs +33.2% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment GEO crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
GEO has crossed below its 200-week MA 25 times with an average 1-year return of +21.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1995 | Sep 1995 | 1 | 3.0% | +157.9% | +1826.2% |
| Oct 1995 | Oct 1995 | 1 | 1.0% | +89.7% | +1776.8% |
| Jul 1998 | Sep 1998 | 6 | 19.9% | +10.3% | +902.7% |
| Oct 1998 | Oct 1998 | 1 | 5.0% | -28.1% | +856.8% |
| Feb 1999 | Nov 2001 | 143 | 68.3% | -53.1% | +815.0% |
| Nov 2001 | Jan 2002 | 6 | 13.9% | -12.3% | +1211.8% |
| Apr 2002 | Apr 2002 | 1 | 2.3% | -27.8% | +1204.3% |
| Jul 2002 | Aug 2002 | 2 | 8.6% | +22.6% | +1219.3% |
| Aug 2002 | Apr 2003 | 35 | 30.8% | +33.7% | +1255.5% |
| Oct 2008 | Dec 2008 | 9 | 19.2% | +40.2% | +311.0% |
| Jan 2009 | Sep 2009 | 38 | 36.0% | +25.0% | +239.4% |
| Nov 2009 | Nov 2009 | 2 | 1.7% | +20.7% | +205.0% |
| Jan 2010 | Aug 2010 | 32 | 10.9% | +16.3% | +206.4% |
| Jul 2011 | Apr 2012 | 39 | 20.8% | +6.2% | +184.1% |
| Nov 2015 | Nov 2015 | 1 | 3.4% | +23.9% | +50.1% |
| Dec 2015 | Jan 2016 | 7 | 5.4% | +35.8% | +44.2% |
| Feb 2016 | Feb 2016 | 2 | 9.3% | +81.2% | +54.2% |
| Aug 2016 | Nov 2016 | 12 | 29.3% | +71.6% | +60.9% |
| Feb 2018 | Feb 2018 | 2 | 5.4% | +27.2% | +14.8% |
| Mar 2018 | Apr 2018 | 2 | 2.3% | +0.7% | +10.9% |
| Dec 2018 | Jan 2019 | 3 | 6.4% | -7.3% | +8.8% |
| Mar 2019 | Apr 2019 | 7 | 6.5% | -26.7% | +8.1% |
| Jul 2019 | Nov 2022 | 176 | 63.3% | -30.2% | +6.9% |
| Feb 2023 | Oct 2023 | 36 | 22.7% | +28.2% | +72.2% |
| Feb 2026 | Ongoing | 6+ | 9.3% | Ongoing | +15.6% |
| Average | 23 | — | +21.1% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GEO below its 200-week moving average?
No. The GEO Group, Inc. (GEO) is currently 11.2% above its 200-week moving average of $14.78. It would need to fall to $14.78 to cross below the line.
What is GEO's 200-week moving average price?
The GEO Group, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $14.78 as of 2026-03-20. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when GEO drops below its 200-week moving average?
GEO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 25 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +21.1%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 23 weeks on average.
Is GEO a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about GEO as of 2026-03-20: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 49. Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is 17.9%. Price-to-book is 1.5x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does GEO compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 30.8 years, $100 invested in GEO would have grown to $1627, compared to $1972 for the S&P 500. That's 9.5% annualized vs 10.2% for the index. GEO has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-03-20