GEF
Greif, Inc. Consumer Cyclical - Packaging & Containers Investor Relations →
Greif, Inc. (GEF) closed at $82.71 as of 2026-09-18, trading 34.5% above its 200-week moving average of $61.48. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 33.1% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 73, GEF is in overbought territory.
A big jump in activity this week — 2.1x the usual volume, and the price went up. Significantly more people than usual decided to buy. This kind of surge, especially on a stock already below its 200-week average, can be an early sign that sentiment is shifting.
Over the past 1546 weeks of data, GEF has crossed below its 200-week moving average 29 times. On average, these episodes lasted 18 weeks. Historically, investors who bought GEF at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +10.8%.
With a market cap of $4.7 billion, GEF is a mid-cap stock. The stock trades at 1.6x book value.
Over the past 29.7 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in GEF would have grown to $1282, compared to $1601 for the S&P 500. GEF has returned 9.0% annualized vs 9.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -12.9% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: GEF vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After GEF Crosses Below the Line?
Across 29 historical episodes, buying GEF when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +13.1% after 12 months (median +13.0%), compared to +11.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 69% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +20.0% vs +20.9% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment GEF crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices GEF would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where GEF's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-28.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $67.34 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $72.58 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $78.70 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $85.95 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $94.68 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 | $1.11 | $1.61 | +45.3% |
| 2026-04-28 | $1.07 | $1.10 | +3.0% |
| 2026-01-27 | $0.68 | $0.48 | -29.1% |
| 2025-11-05 | $0.60 | $0.01 | -98.3% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from GEF's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
GEF has crossed below its 200-week MA 29 times with an average 1-year return of +10.8% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1997 | Jun 1997 | 13 | 15.7% | +27.8% | +1237.2% |
| Jun 1997 | Jul 1997 | 1 | 1.4% | +40.0% | +1261.6% |
| Oct 1998 | Oct 1998 | 2 | 9.2% | +4.5% | +1226.2% |
| Nov 1998 | Nov 1998 | 2 | 3.0% | -2.7% | +1119.3% |
| Dec 1998 | Dec 1999 | 54 | 27.8% | -6.2% | +1160.1% |
| Jan 2000 | Feb 2000 | 6 | 7.6% | -8.2% | +1190.9% |
| May 2000 | May 2000 | 1 | 2.5% | +5.4% | +1169.2% |
| Jun 2000 | Jun 2000 | 1 | 4.3% | +7.4% | +1191.2% |
| Jul 2000 | Sep 2000 | 10 | 14.9% | +6.8% | +1179.9% |
| Dec 2000 | Jun 2001 | 26 | 21.6% | +0.6% | +1154.8% |
| Jul 2001 | Jul 2001 | 1 | 0.4% | +13.3% | +1120.7% |
| Sep 2001 | Dec 2001 | 13 | 21.9% | -0.4% | +1234.7% |
| Jul 2002 | Sep 2003 | 63 | 38.3% | -11.0% | +1276.1% |
| Oct 2008 | May 2009 | 30 | 41.2% | +31.3% | +258.0% |
| Jun 2009 | Jul 2009 | 4 | 5.8% | +41.2% | +258.1% |
| Feb 2010 | Feb 2010 | 2 | 0.9% | +38.7% | +213.4% |
| Aug 2011 | Jan 2012 | 24 | 17.2% | -16.9% | +180.8% |
| Feb 2012 | Mar 2012 | 1 | 2.1% | +8.1% | +188.4% |
| May 2012 | Feb 2013 | 39 | 16.1% | +16.8% | +208.3% |
| Apr 2013 | May 2013 | 4 | 6.7% | +16.7% | +193.3% |
| Aug 2014 | Dec 2014 | 16 | 10.9% | -36.6% | +171.2% |
| Jan 2015 | Jul 2016 | 81 | 42.2% | -31.0% | +186.7% |
| Dec 2018 | Dec 2019 | 53 | 28.5% | +3.6% | +150.0% |
| Dec 2019 | Oct 2020 | 41 | 40.0% | +13.1% | +139.9% |
| Oct 2020 | Nov 2020 | 1 | 4.7% | +64.3% | +147.3% |
| Jun 2024 | Jul 2024 | 2 | 3.0% | +17.0% | +55.4% |
| Jan 2025 | Jan 2025 | 1 | 3.9% | +28.6% | +51.3% |
| Feb 2025 | Jun 2025 | 15 | 14.5% | +29.0% | +46.5% |
| Sep 2025 | Nov 2025 | 7 | 4.8% | N/A | +43.9% |
| Average | 18 | — | +10.8% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GEF below its 200-week moving average?
No. Greif, Inc. (GEF) is currently 34.5% above its 200-week moving average of $61.48. It would need to fall to $61.48 to cross below the line.
What is GEF's 200-week moving average price?
Greif, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $61.48 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when GEF drops below its 200-week moving average?
GEF has crossed below its 200-week moving average 29 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +10.8%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 18 weeks on average.
Is GEF a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about GEF as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 73 (overbought). Price-to-book is 1.6x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does GEF compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 29.7 years, $100 invested in GEF would have grown to $1282, compared to $1601 for the S&P 500. That's 9.0% annualized vs 9.8% for the index. GEF has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does GEF pay a dividend?
Yes. Greif, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 284.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18