GDEN
Golden Entertainment, Inc. Consumer Cyclical - Resorts & Casinos Investor Relations →
Golden Entertainment, Inc. (GDEN) closed at $28.55 as of 2026-05-08, trading 1.2% above its 200-week moving average of $28.20. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -8.6% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 71, GDEN is in overbought territory.
Over the past 1378 weeks of data, GDEN has crossed below its 200-week moving average 21 times. On average, these episodes lasted 32 weeks. Historically, investors who bought GDEN at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +5.6%.
With a market cap of $754 million, GDEN is a small-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 5.1%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at -1.4%. The stock trades at 1.8x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 7.1% over the past three years. This stock also meets the Yartseva multibagger criteria as a small-cap with strong free cash flow yield and reasonable book value.
Over the past 26.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in GDEN would have grown to $519, compared to $822 for the S&P 500. GDEN has returned 6.4% annualized vs 8.3% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -28.8% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: GDEN vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After GDEN Crosses Below the Line?
Across 21 historical episodes, buying GDEN when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +1.1% after 12 months (median -9.0%), compared to +7.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 33% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +9.8% vs +10.7% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment GDEN crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices GDEN would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where GDEN's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2025-12-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $19.56 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $22.56 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $26.63 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $32.49 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $41.67 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from GDEN's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
GDEN has crossed below its 200-week MA 21 times with an average 1-year return of +5.6% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 1999 | Jan 2001 | 57 | 28.0% | -5.6% | +390.1% |
| Apr 2001 | Apr 2001 | 1 | 1.9% | -21.5% | +354.6% |
| May 2001 | May 2001 | 2 | 0.7% | -14.6% | +345.4% |
| Jun 2001 | Jun 2003 | 104 | 51.7% | -8.6% | +456.7% |
| Nov 2005 | Jan 2006 | 10 | 20.1% | +50.4% | +178.4% |
| Jul 2006 | Sep 2006 | 10 | 17.5% | +31.0% | +136.0% |
| Nov 2006 | Dec 2006 | 1 | 4.7% | -29.7% | +118.0% |
| Jan 2007 | Mar 2007 | 11 | 20.5% | -38.8% | +108.3% |
| May 2007 | May 2007 | 1 | 2.3% | -43.4% | +95.8% |
| Jul 2007 | Jul 2007 | 1 | 6.5% | -50.7% | +98.1% |
| Aug 2007 | May 2012 | 247 | 78.0% | -39.5% | +90.0% |
| Aug 2012 | Nov 2012 | 12 | 14.2% | +55.0% | +751.2% |
| Nov 2018 | Nov 2018 | 3 | 10.9% | +11.2% | +148.6% |
| Dec 2018 | Dec 2018 | 2 | 14.8% | +35.7% | +155.5% |
| Mar 2019 | Dec 2019 | 39 | 28.2% | -31.8% | +176.1% |
| Jan 2020 | Feb 2020 | 4 | 8.3% | +10.2% | +94.9% |
| Feb 2020 | Dec 2020 | 42 | 80.0% | +45.1% | +120.5% |
| Jan 2021 | Feb 2021 | 1 | 10.6% | +165.9% | +111.1% |
| Oct 2023 | Oct 2023 | 1 | 2.4% | -1.1% | +8.2% |
| Feb 2024 | Mar 2024 | 3 | 5.5% | -6.3% | -0.3% |
| Apr 2024 | Ongoing | 109+ | 40.2% | Ongoing | -1.0% |
| Average | 32 | — | +5.6% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GDEN below its 200-week moving average?
No. Golden Entertainment, Inc. (GDEN) is currently 1.2% above its 200-week moving average of $28.20. It would need to fall to $28.20 to cross below the line.
What is GDEN's 200-week moving average price?
Golden Entertainment, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $28.20 as of 2026-05-08. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when GDEN drops below its 200-week moving average?
GDEN has crossed below its 200-week moving average 21 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +5.6%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 32 weeks on average.
Is GDEN a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about GDEN as of 2026-05-08: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 71 (overbought). Free cash flow yield is 5.1%. Return on equity is -1.4%. Price-to-book is 1.8x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does GDEN compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 26.5 years, $100 invested in GDEN would have grown to $519, compared to $822 for the S&P 500. That's 6.4% annualized vs 8.3% for the index. GDEN has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does GDEN pay a dividend?
Yes. Golden Entertainment, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 3.50%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-05-08