GCO
Genesco Inc. Consumer Cyclical - Apparel Retail Investor Relations →
Genesco Inc. (GCO) closed at $35.67 as of 2026-06-19, trading 12.6% above its 200-week moving average of $31.67. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 33.6% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 67, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.2x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.08 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2734 weeks of data, GCO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 43 times. On average, these episodes lasted 32 weeks. Historically, investors who bought GCO at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +6.7%.
With a market cap of $396 million, GCO is a small-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 20.0%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 3.7%. The stock trades at 0.7x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 14.4% over the past three years. This stock also meets the Yartseva multibagger criteria as a small-cap with strong free cash flow yield and reasonable book value.
Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in GCO would have grown to $362, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. GCO has returned 3.9% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: GCO vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After GCO Crosses Below the Line?
Across 25 historical episodes, buying GCO when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -1.5% after 12 months (median -22.0%), compared to +13.5% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 27% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +25.6% vs +31.2% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment GCO crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices GCO would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where GCO's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-08-27.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $24.39 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $26.86 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $29.88 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $33.66 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $38.55 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from GCO's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
GCO has crossed below its 200-week MA 43 times with an average 1-year return of +6.7% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1974 | Dec 1975 | 100 | 56.4% | -33.3% | +483.9% |
| Oct 1976 | Mar 1977 | 22 | 16.0% | -26.7% | +600.7% |
| Mar 1977 | Mar 1977 | 1 | 2.8% | +20.9% | +633.3% |
| Jun 1977 | Jan 1978 | 32 | 31.3% | +26.8% | +669.1% |
| Oct 1978 | Sep 1980 | 99 | 43.4% | -24.3% | +752.2% |
| Sep 1980 | Oct 1980 | 5 | 5.5% | +23.7% | +729.8% |
| Feb 1982 | Jan 1983 | 46 | 30.7% | +12.2% | +669.1% |
| Jan 1983 | Jan 1983 | 1 | 2.3% | +43.9% | +669.1% |
| Mar 1983 | Mar 1983 | 1 | 2.6% | +17.1% | +669.1% |
| Feb 1984 | Feb 1984 | 1 | 4.3% | -8.3% | +556.9% |
| Mar 1984 | Mar 1984 | 1 | 5.0% | -8.3% | +556.9% |
| Apr 1984 | May 1984 | 5 | 7.9% | -10.4% | +556.9% |
| Jul 1984 | Jul 1984 | 2 | 5.2% | -41.2% | +518.3% |
| Sep 1984 | Jun 1987 | 141 | 56.1% | -49.1% | +494.9% |
| Jun 1987 | Jul 1987 | 1 | 1.1% | -10.0% | +688.3% |
| Oct 1987 | Jun 1988 | 36 | 33.1% | +43.3% | +951.1% |
| Jun 1990 | Jun 1990 | 1 | 1.3% | +2.4% | +650.8% |
| Jul 1990 | Jun 1991 | 47 | 42.1% | +9.5% | +650.8% |
| Jun 1991 | Jul 1991 | 3 | 9.8% | +5.3% | +729.8% |
| Oct 1991 | Oct 1991 | 1 | 4.4% | +39.0% | +669.1% |
| Nov 1991 | Dec 1991 | 6 | 15.0% | +71.4% | +650.8% |
| May 1992 | May 1992 | 3 | 2.0% | +77.3% | +616.6% |
| Jun 1992 | Jul 1992 | 7 | 11.1% | +80.0% | +600.7% |
| Oct 1993 | Oct 1993 | 2 | 8.2% | -56.5% | +585.5% |
| Nov 1993 | Apr 1996 | 125 | 68.7% | -65.3% | +543.5% |
| Aug 1998 | Mar 1999 | 29 | 48.4% | +86.0% | +530.6% |
| Jan 2000 | Mar 2000 | 10 | 19.9% | +132.9% | +271.0% |
| Jul 2002 | Nov 2002 | 16 | 36.1% | +38.2% | +190.9% |
| Dec 2002 | Feb 2004 | 61 | 33.6% | -12.5% | +116.6% |
| Jul 2004 | Aug 2004 | 5 | 8.7% | +92.7% | +92.7% |
| Nov 2007 | Aug 2008 | 39 | 41.7% | -61.0% | +18.3% |
| Sep 2008 | Mar 2010 | 77 | 64.3% | -19.5% | +25.7% |
| May 2010 | May 2010 | 1 | 1.2% | +41.5% | +23.8% |
| Jun 2010 | Sep 2010 | 14 | 14.9% | +78.2% | +24.6% |
| May 2015 | Mar 2016 | 42 | 21.4% | -1.2% | -46.1% |
| Apr 2016 | Apr 2016 | 1 | 0.3% | -24.0% | -47.2% |
| May 2016 | Jul 2016 | 12 | 9.5% | -18.6% | -45.6% |
| Aug 2016 | Dec 2019 | 170 | 64.1% | -52.7% | -27.3% |
| Jan 2020 | Jan 2021 | 52 | 76.3% | -11.3% | -17.3% |
| Aug 2022 | Sep 2022 | 1 | 2.9% | -21.9% | -17.1% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 5 | 11.3% | -30.9% | -14.5% |
| Dec 2022 | Dec 2022 | 3 | 7.9% | -28.8% | -16.7% |
| Mar 2023 | Apr 2026 | 162 | 57.2% | -36.7% | -14.7% |
| Average | 32 | — | +6.7% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GCO below its 200-week moving average?
No. Genesco Inc. (GCO) is currently 12.6% above its 200-week moving average of $31.67. It would need to fall to $31.67 to cross below the line.
What is GCO's 200-week moving average price?
Genesco Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $31.67 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when GCO drops below its 200-week moving average?
GCO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 43 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +6.7%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 32 weeks on average.
Is GCO a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about GCO as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 67. Free cash flow yield is 20.0%. Return on equity is 3.7%. Price-to-book is 0.7x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does GCO compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in GCO would have grown to $362, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 3.9% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. GCO has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19