GBX
The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. Industrials - Railcar Manufacturing Investor Relations →
The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. (GBX) closed at $49.69 as of 2026-06-19, trading 15.4% above its 200-week moving average of $43.04. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 12.2% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 45, indicating neutral momentum.
Over the past 14 weeks, down-weeks have had more trading volume than up-weeks (0.67 buyers-vs-sellers ratio). That means when people are active, they're more often selling than buying. Sellers are still more in control than buyers.
Over the past 1618 weeks of data, GBX has crossed below its 200-week moving average 22 times. On average, these episodes lasted 32 weeks. Historically, investors who bought GBX at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +26.6%.
With a market cap of $1537 million, GBX is a small-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 8.8%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 9.3%. The stock trades at 1.0x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 5.3% over the past three years. This stock also meets the Yartseva multibagger criteria as a small-cap with strong free cash flow yield and reasonable book value.
Over the past 31.1 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in GBX would have grown to $666, compared to $2363 for the S&P 500. GBX has returned 6.3% annualized vs 10.7% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: GBX vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After GBX Crosses Below the Line?
Across 22 historical episodes, buying GBX when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +20.2% after 12 months (median +16.0%), compared to +17.9% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 64% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +70.2% vs +37.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment GBX crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices GBX would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where GBX's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-01.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $44.73 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $49.24 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $54.76 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $61.68 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $70.60 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from GBX's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
GBX has crossed below its 200-week MA 22 times with an average 1-year return of +26.6% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 1995 | Apr 1996 | 45 | 27.8% | +19.3% | +599.7% |
| Jun 1996 | Jul 1997 | 57 | 30.8% | -16.5% | +518.2% |
| Aug 1997 | Aug 1997 | 1 | 0.3% | +35.2% | +563.9% |
| Oct 1998 | Oct 1998 | 1 | 4.5% | -12.0% | +551.4% |
| Jan 1999 | Feb 2003 | 213 | 46.5% | -32.6% | +529.9% |
| Apr 2007 | May 2007 | 5 | 13.3% | +11.9% | +219.2% |
| Sep 2007 | Oct 2010 | 161 | 92.3% | -28.2% | +166.3% |
| Aug 2011 | Oct 2011 | 10 | 23.8% | -0.9% | +335.2% |
| May 2012 | Jun 2012 | 5 | 11.2% | +80.9% | +409.4% |
| Aug 2012 | Sep 2012 | 1 | 3.4% | +56.2% | +371.4% |
| Oct 2012 | Nov 2012 | 2 | 12.1% | +114.3% | +390.4% |
| Dec 2012 | Dec 2012 | 1 | 0.8% | +108.4% | +332.4% |
| Sep 2015 | Oct 2015 | 2 | 8.6% | +9.4% | +106.8% |
| Nov 2015 | Nov 2016 | 54 | 38.2% | +13.1% | +109.2% |
| Sep 2017 | Sep 2017 | 1 | 0.5% | +37.2% | +52.2% |
| Dec 2018 | Feb 2019 | 9 | 9.5% | -23.4% | +54.1% |
| Mar 2019 | Dec 2020 | 93 | 65.8% | -41.9% | +59.4% |
| Jan 2021 | Jan 2021 | 2 | 0.6% | +29.0% | +62.6% |
| Jul 2022 | Oct 2022 | 16 | 26.7% | +35.2% | +70.5% |
| Jan 2023 | Jun 2023 | 25 | 18.6% | +68.1% | +91.0% |
| Oct 2023 | Oct 2023 | 1 | 1.8% | +90.1% | +61.5% |
| Apr 2025 | Apr 2025 | 1 | 1.4% | +31.6% | +26.3% |
| Average | 32 | — | +26.6% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GBX below its 200-week moving average?
No. The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. (GBX) is currently 15.4% above its 200-week moving average of $43.04. It would need to fall to $43.04 to cross below the line.
What is GBX's 200-week moving average price?
The Greenbrier Companies, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $43.04 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when GBX drops below its 200-week moving average?
GBX has crossed below its 200-week moving average 22 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +26.6%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 32 weeks on average.
Is GBX a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about GBX as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 45. Free cash flow yield is 8.8%. Return on equity is 9.3%. Price-to-book is 1.0x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does GBX compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 31.1 years, $100 invested in GBX would have grown to $666, compared to $2363 for the S&P 500. That's 6.3% annualized vs 10.7% for the index. GBX has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does GBX pay a dividend?
Yes. The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 276.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19