GBTC
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust Financial - Crypto ETF Investor Relations →
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) closed at $48.80 as of 2026-06-19, trading 3.5% above its 200-week moving average of $47.17. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 5.0% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 40, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 0.8x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.89 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 531 weeks of data, GBTC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 4 times. On average, these episodes lasted 25 weeks. Historically, investors who bought GBTC at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +251.2%.
Over the past 10.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in GBTC would have grown to $6856, compared to $427 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 51.1% vs 15.2% for the index — confirming GBTC as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Growth of $100: GBTC vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After GBTC Crosses Below the Line?
Across 3 historical episodes, buying GBTC when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +215.7% after 12 months (median +92.0%), compared to +25.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 67% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +301.7% vs +50.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment GBTC crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from GBTC's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
GBTC has crossed below its 200-week MA 4 times with an average 1-year return of +251.2% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2018 | Apr 2019 | 19 | 24.4% | +90.0% | +1007.0% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 6 | 17.3% | +691.1% | +754.8% |
| May 2022 | Oct 2023 | 75 | 61.7% | -27.6% | +174.2% |
| Jun 2026 | Jun 2026 | 1 | 0.0% | N/A | +4.3% |
| Average | 25 | — | +251.2% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GBTC below its 200-week moving average?
No. Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) is currently 3.5% above its 200-week moving average of $47.17. It would need to fall to $47.17 to cross below the line.
What is GBTC's 200-week moving average price?
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust's 200-week moving average is $47.17 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when GBTC drops below its 200-week moving average?
GBTC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 4 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +251.2%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 25 weeks on average.
Is GBTC a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about GBTC as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 40. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does GBTC compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 10.2 years, $100 invested in GBTC would have grown to $6856, compared to $427 for the S&P 500. That's 51.1% annualized vs 15.2% for the index. GBTC has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19