GBTC
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust Financial - Crypto ETF Investor Relations →
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) closed at $54.63 as of 2026-02-02, trading 25.7% above its 200-week moving average of $43.47. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 50.8% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 21, GBTC is in oversold territory.
Over the past 512 weeks of data, GBTC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 3 times. On average, these episodes lasted 33 weeks. Historically, investors who bought GBTC at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +251.2%.
With a market cap of $37.8 billion, GBTC is a large-cap stock.
Over the past 9.9 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in GBTC would have grown to $7675, compared to $393 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 54.9% vs 14.8% for the index — confirming GBTC as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Growth of $100: GBTC vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After GBTC Crosses Below the Line?
Across 3 historical episodes, buying GBTC when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +215.7% after 12 months (median +92.0%), compared to +25.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 67% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +301.7% vs +50.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment GBTC crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
GBTC has crossed below its 200-week MA 3 times with an average 1-year return of +251.2% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2018 | Apr 2019 | 19 | 24.4% | +90.0% | +1139.3% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 6 | 17.3% | +691.1% | +856.9% |
| May 2022 | Oct 2023 | 75 | 61.7% | -27.6% | +207.0% |
| Average | 33 | — | +251.2% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02