GATX
GATX Corporation Industrials - Rental & Leasing Services Investor Relations →
GATX Corporation (GATX) closed at $177.89 as of 2026-09-18, trading 27.0% above its 200-week moving average of $140.05. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 27.3% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 55, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.8x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.88 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2747 weeks of data, GATX has crossed below its 200-week moving average 28 times. On average, these episodes lasted 28 weeks. Historically, investors who bought GATX at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +19.5%.
With a market cap of $6.3 billion, GATX is a mid-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at 11.8%. The stock trades at 2.3x book value.
Over the past 33.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in GATX would have grown to $2890, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. GATX has returned 10.5% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 6.7% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: GATX vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After GATX Crosses Below the Line?
Across 15 historical episodes, buying GATX when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +16.4% after 12 months (median +25.0%), compared to +2.6% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 64% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +23.8% vs +7.9% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment GATX crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices GATX would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where GATX's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-20.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $164.99 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $172.12 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $179.89 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $188.40 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $197.76 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | $2.46 | $2.84 | +15.5% |
| 2026-05-07 | $2.28 | $2.35 | +3.3% |
| 2026-02-19 | $2.42 | $2.44 | +0.7% |
| 2025-10-21 | $2.32 | $2.10 | -9.6% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from GATX's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
GATX has crossed below its 200-week MA 28 times with an average 1-year return of +19.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1974 | Jul 1978 | 223 | 48.8% | -30.0% | +7427.8% |
| Oct 1978 | May 1979 | 31 | 16.5% | +21.7% | +11658.0% |
| Mar 1980 | May 1980 | 7 | 10.8% | +43.8% | +12145.7% |
| Sep 1981 | Jan 1983 | 71 | 33.7% | -15.3% | +10280.1% |
| Mar 1983 | May 1983 | 8 | 6.1% | +11.7% | +10271.1% |
| May 1983 | Jun 1983 | 1 | 0.6% | -0.3% | +10005.2% |
| Feb 1984 | Feb 1984 | 2 | 1.6% | +28.5% | +9952.0% |
| Apr 1984 | Apr 1984 | 1 | 0.7% | +13.9% | +9851.5% |
| May 1984 | Jun 1984 | 5 | 4.4% | +8.9% | +10032.4% |
| Jul 1984 | Jul 1984 | 3 | 3.9% | +9.8% | +9923.9% |
| Aug 1984 | Sep 1984 | 4 | 6.7% | +12.7% | +10502.2% |
| Aug 1990 | Dec 1990 | 17 | 24.9% | +68.0% | +4618.8% |
| Dec 1990 | Dec 1990 | 1 | 0.4% | +7.5% | +4304.8% |
| Nov 1991 | Dec 1991 | 5 | 15.4% | +26.7% | +4284.2% |
| Jan 1992 | Feb 1992 | 4 | 6.6% | +37.7% | +3879.7% |
| Mar 1992 | Jul 1992 | 17 | 8.2% | +36.7% | +3797.0% |
| Aug 1992 | Aug 1992 | 3 | 4.2% | +54.2% | +3714.2% |
| Sep 1992 | Nov 1992 | 8 | 8.7% | +57.9% | +3688.1% |
| Oct 1999 | Oct 1999 | 1 | 1.1% | +47.5% | +1216.2% |
| Jan 2000 | Mar 2000 | 6 | 5.5% | +65.3% | +1236.2% |
| Sep 2001 | Dec 2003 | 116 | 55.3% | -23.7% | +1086.7% |
| Jan 2004 | Jun 2004 | 21 | 21.7% | +30.8% | +1312.9% |
| Jul 2004 | Aug 2004 | 6 | 7.1% | +40.9% | +1109.2% |
| Dec 2007 | Jan 2008 | 4 | 11.6% | -6.3% | +740.6% |
| Feb 2008 | Mar 2008 | 3 | 3.4% | -47.4% | +699.5% |
| Sep 2008 | Nov 2010 | 109 | 60.9% | -20.9% | +710.2% |
| Aug 2015 | Nov 2016 | 64 | 26.0% | -0.8% | +395.2% |
| Mar 2020 | Oct 2020 | 29 | 15.5% | +65.5% | +267.0% |
| Average | 28 | — | +19.5% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GATX below its 200-week moving average?
No. GATX Corporation (GATX) is currently 27.0% above its 200-week moving average of $140.05. It would need to fall to $140.05 to cross below the line.
What is GATX's 200-week moving average price?
GATX Corporation's 200-week moving average is $140.05 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when GATX drops below its 200-week moving average?
GATX has crossed below its 200-week moving average 28 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +19.5%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 28 weeks on average.
Is GATX a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about GATX as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 55. Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is 11.8%. Price-to-book is 2.3x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does GATX compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.8 years, $100 invested in GATX would have grown to $2890, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That's 10.5% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. GATX has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does GATX pay a dividend?
Yes. GATX Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 146.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18