GABC
German American Bancorp, Inc. Financial Services - Banks - Regional Investor Relations →
German American Bancorp, Inc. (GABC) closed at $44.99 as of 2026-06-19, trading 29.6% above its 200-week moving average of $34.71. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 32.5% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 72, GABC is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.4x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.21 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1678 weeks of data, GABC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 23 times. On average, these episodes lasted 18 weeks. Historically, investors who bought GABC at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +13.2%.
With a market cap of $1690 million, GABC is a small-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 12.2%. The stock trades at 1.4x book value.
Share count has increased 27.1% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 32.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in GABC would have grown to $1778, compared to $2927 for the S&P 500. GABC has returned 9.3% annualized vs 11.0% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: GABC vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After GABC Crosses Below the Line?
Across 23 historical episodes, buying GABC when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +11.6% after 12 months (median +14.0%), compared to +6.1% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 70% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +31.3% vs +19.1% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment GABC crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices GABC would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where GABC's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-27.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $41.38 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $42.97 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $44.70 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $46.57 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $48.60 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from GABC's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
GABC has crossed below its 200-week MA 23 times with an average 1-year return of +13.2% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 1995 | Jun 1995 | 1 | 1.3% | +23.9% | +1646.5% |
| Aug 1995 | Aug 1995 | 1 | 0.8% | +25.6% | +1635.2% |
| Sep 1995 | Oct 1995 | 2 | 0.1% | +33.5% | +1620.9% |
| Mar 1999 | Aug 1999 | 19 | 11.3% | -13.2% | +936.4% |
| Dec 1999 | Jul 2001 | 85 | 33.9% | -25.6% | +899.8% |
| Sep 2001 | Oct 2001 | 4 | 11.7% | +23.8% | +984.8% |
| Nov 2001 | Nov 2001 | 2 | 2.6% | +8.0% | +884.9% |
| Apr 2005 | Nov 2006 | 85 | 16.1% | -8.3% | +741.6% |
| Dec 2006 | May 2007 | 23 | 5.1% | -1.3% | +750.3% |
| May 2007 | Aug 2007 | 13 | 9.3% | +0.2% | +745.8% |
| Sep 2007 | Oct 2007 | 5 | 2.8% | +1.4% | +759.0% |
| Nov 2007 | Nov 2007 | 1 | 2.9% | -12.0% | +773.5% |
| Dec 2007 | May 2008 | 24 | 10.6% | -10.1% | +761.6% |
| Jun 2008 | Aug 2008 | 12 | 12.9% | +14.0% | +766.1% |
| Sep 2008 | Mar 2009 | 27 | 13.2% | +42.1% | +812.1% |
| Apr 2009 | Apr 2009 | 1 | 0.2% | +37.9% | +792.2% |
| Dec 2018 | Dec 2018 | 1 | 3.8% | +37.3% | +106.8% |
| May 2019 | Jun 2019 | 2 | 2.6% | +13.7% | +94.8% |
| Feb 2020 | May 2020 | 13 | 17.9% | +35.4% | +79.0% |
| Jun 2020 | Nov 2020 | 22 | 14.9% | +39.2% | +82.5% |
| Mar 2023 | Dec 2023 | 39 | 21.9% | -1.2% | +48.3% |
| Dec 2023 | Mar 2024 | 13 | 5.6% | +29.0% | +49.5% |
| Apr 2024 | Jun 2024 | 11 | 4.4% | +10.3% | +49.4% |
| Average | 18 | — | +13.2% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GABC below its 200-week moving average?
No. German American Bancorp, Inc. (GABC) is currently 29.6% above its 200-week moving average of $34.71. It would need to fall to $34.71 to cross below the line.
What is GABC's 200-week moving average price?
German American Bancorp, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $34.71 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when GABC drops below its 200-week moving average?
GABC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 23 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +13.2%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 18 weeks on average.
Is GABC a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about GABC as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 72 (overbought). Return on equity is 12.2%. Price-to-book is 1.4x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does GABC compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 32.2 years, $100 invested in GABC would have grown to $1778, compared to $2927 for the S&P 500. That's 9.3% annualized vs 11.0% for the index. GABC has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does GABC pay a dividend?
Yes. German American Bancorp, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 264.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19