FWRG
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. Consumer Cyclical - Restaurants Investor Relations →
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG) closed at $12.18 as of 2026-03-20, trading 30.2% below its 200-week moving average of $17.44. This places FWRG in the extreme value zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -33.9% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 34, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.0x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.10 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 185 weeks of data, FWRG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 10 times. On average, these episodes lasted 8 weeks. Historically, investors who bought FWRG at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +9.7%.
With a market cap of $745 million, FWRG is a small-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at 3.2%. The stock trades at 1.2x book value.
Share count has increased 3.2% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 3.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in FWRG would have grown to $84, compared to $191 for the S&P 500. FWRG has returned -4.7% annualized vs 19.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: FWRG vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After FWRG Crosses Below the Line?
Across 10 historical episodes, buying FWRG when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +11.8% after 12 months (median +19.0%), compared to +18.2% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 80% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +17.0% vs +56.7% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment FWRG crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
FWRG has crossed below its 200-week MA 10 times with an average 1-year return of +9.7% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 6 | 10.5% | +25.0% | -19.4% |
| Nov 2022 | Jan 2023 | 9 | 15.6% | +8.9% | -21.7% |
| Jan 2023 | Apr 2023 | 13 | 5.2% | +33.2% | -22.7% |
| Jul 2024 | Nov 2024 | 18 | 19.0% | +11.7% | -23.0% |
| Mar 2025 | Apr 2025 | 4 | 6.6% | -30.1% | -26.1% |
| May 2025 | Jun 2025 | 8 | 14.6% | N/A | -22.8% |
| Jul 2025 | Aug 2025 | 3 | 3.7% | N/A | -27.7% |
| Sep 2025 | Oct 2025 | 5 | 12.2% | N/A | -28.4% |
| Oct 2025 | Nov 2025 | 4 | 4.4% | N/A | -26.1% |
| Dec 2025 | Ongoing | 15+ | 33.9% | Ongoing | -25.6% |
| Average | 8 | — | +9.7% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FWRG below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-03-20, First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG) is trading 30.2% below its 200-week moving average of $17.44. The current price is $12.18.
What is FWRG's 200-week moving average price?
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $17.44 as of 2026-03-20. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when FWRG drops below its 200-week moving average?
FWRG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 10 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +9.7%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 8 weeks on average.
Is FWRG a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about FWRG as of 2026-03-20: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 34. Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is 3.2%. Price-to-book is 1.2x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does FWRG compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 3.6 years, $100 invested in FWRG would have grown to $84, compared to $191 for the S&P 500. That's -4.7% annualized vs 19.8% for the index. FWRG has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-03-20