FWRG
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. Consumer Cyclical - Restaurants Investor Relations →
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG) closed at $17.54 as of 2026-02-02, trading 0.6% above its 200-week moving average of $17.43. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -8.1% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 55, indicating neutral momentum.
Over the past 179 weeks of data, FWRG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 10 times. On average, these episodes lasted 8 weeks. Historically, investors who bought FWRG at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +19.7%.
With a market cap of $1071 million, FWRG is a small-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at 0.8%. The stock trades at 1.8x book value.
Share count has increased 2.8% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 3.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in FWRG would have grown to $121, compared to $203 for the S&P 500. FWRG has returned 5.6% annualized vs 22.4% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -100% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Growth of $100: FWRG vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After FWRG Crosses Below the Line?
Across 10 historical episodes, buying FWRG when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +21.0% after 12 months (median +19.0%), compared to +18.2% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 100% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +17.0% vs +56.7% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment FWRG crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
FWRG has crossed below its 200-week MA 10 times with an average 1-year return of +19.7% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 6 | 10.5% | +25.0% | +16.1% |
| Nov 2022 | Jan 2023 | 9 | 15.6% | +8.9% | +12.8% |
| Jan 2023 | Apr 2023 | 13 | 5.2% | +33.2% | +11.3% |
| Jul 2024 | Nov 2024 | 18 | 19.0% | +11.7% | +10.9% |
| Mar 2025 | Apr 2025 | 4 | 6.6% | N/A | +6.4% |
| May 2025 | Jun 2025 | 8 | 14.6% | N/A | +11.2% |
| Jul 2025 | Aug 2025 | 3 | 3.7% | N/A | +4.2% |
| Sep 2025 | Oct 2025 | 5 | 12.2% | N/A | +3.1% |
| Oct 2025 | Nov 2025 | 4 | 4.4% | N/A | +6.4% |
| Dec 2025 | Ongoing | 9+ | 11.3% | Ongoing | +7.2% |
| Average | 8 | — | +19.7% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02