FWRD
Forward Air Corporation Industrials - Integrated Freight & Logistics Investor Relations →
Forward Air Corporation (FWRD) closed at $13.62 as of 2026-06-19, trading 72.6% below its 200-week moving average of $49.68. This places FWRD in the extreme value zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -73.4% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 46, indicating neutral momentum.
A big jump in activity this week — 2.3x the usual volume, and the price went up. Significantly more people than usual decided to buy. This kind of surge, especially on a stock already below its 200-week average, can be an early sign that sentiment is shifting.
Over the past 1652 weeks of data, FWRD has crossed below its 200-week moving average 19 times. On average, these episodes lasted 27 weeks. Historically, investors who bought FWRD at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +39.5%.
With a market cap of $431 million, FWRD is a small-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 13.0%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at -69.1%. The stock trades at 5.3x book value.
Share count has increased 18.4% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 31.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in FWRD would have grown to $581, compared to $2744 for the S&P 500. FWRD has returned 5.7% annualized vs 11.0% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 1 open-market purchase totaling $4,034,950. Notably, these purchases occurred while FWRD is trading below its 200-week moving average — insiders are buying when the market is most pessimistic.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -58.9% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: FWRD vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After FWRD Crosses Below the Line?
Across 19 historical episodes, buying FWRD when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +32.5% after 12 months (median +21.0%), compared to +14.5% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 68% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +88.9% vs +31.3% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment FWRD crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices FWRD would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where FWRD's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $9.11 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $11.30 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $14.87 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $21.73 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $40.36 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from FWRD's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
FWRD has crossed below its 200-week MA 19 times with an average 1-year return of +39.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 1994 | Jul 1997 | 137 | 44.7% | -31.8% | +526.6% |
| Aug 1998 | Sep 1998 | 4 | 18.0% | +360.5% | +599.3% |
| Jul 2002 | Jul 2003 | 51 | 36.9% | +37.2% | +17.8% |
| Sep 2003 | Oct 2003 | 2 | 9.3% | +46.4% | -5.4% |
| Oct 2003 | Feb 2004 | 14 | 11.6% | +41.6% | -14.5% |
| Sep 2007 | Nov 2007 | 8 | 9.4% | -5.7% | -45.5% |
| Dec 2007 | Feb 2008 | 6 | 12.9% | -13.9% | -43.3% |
| Feb 2008 | Mar 2008 | 1 | 6.2% | -42.8% | -44.8% |
| Sep 2008 | Jun 2010 | 90 | 54.6% | -21.1% | -47.4% |
| Jun 2010 | Jul 2010 | 1 | 1.5% | +28.1% | -42.0% |
| Aug 2010 | Nov 2010 | 12 | 7.6% | +3.4% | -40.1% |
| Aug 2011 | Aug 2011 | 1 | 9.1% | +44.5% | -35.8% |
| Sep 2011 | Oct 2011 | 2 | 5.1% | +36.6% | -38.4% |
| Jan 2016 | Jan 2016 | 2 | 0.8% | +21.4% | -63.8% |
| Feb 2016 | Mar 2016 | 4 | 9.9% | +33.9% | -60.3% |
| Sep 2016 | Nov 2016 | 7 | 7.1% | +30.4% | -65.3% |
| Mar 2020 | Aug 2020 | 21 | 23.1% | +84.2% | -72.3% |
| Sep 2020 | Sep 2020 | 1 | 1.7% | +58.4% | -74.5% |
| Aug 2023 | Ongoing | 150+ | 85.1% | Ongoing | -82.3% |
| Average | 27 | — | +39.5% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FWRD below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-06-19, Forward Air Corporation (FWRD) is trading 72.6% below its 200-week moving average of $49.68. The current price is $13.62.
What is FWRD's 200-week moving average price?
Forward Air Corporation's 200-week moving average is $49.68 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when FWRD drops below its 200-week moving average?
FWRD has crossed below its 200-week moving average 19 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +39.5%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 27 weeks on average.
Is FWRD a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about FWRD as of 2026-06-19: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 46. Free cash flow yield is 13.0%. Return on equity is -69.1%. Price-to-book is 5.3x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does FWRD compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 31.8 years, $100 invested in FWRD would have grown to $581, compared to $2744 for the S&P 500. That's 5.7% annualized vs 11.0% for the index. FWRD has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19