FWRD
Forward Air Corporation Industrials - Integrated Freight & Logistics Investor Relations →
Forward Air Corporation (FWRD) closed at $29.89 as of 2026-02-02, trading 47.6% below its 200-week moving average of $57.01. This places FWRD in the extreme value zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -51.3% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 83, FWRD is in overbought territory.
Over the past 1633 weeks of data, FWRD has crossed below its 200-week moving average 19 times. On average, these episodes lasted 26 weeks. Historically, investors who bought FWRD at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +39.5%.
With a market cap of $934 million, FWRD is a small-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 6.5%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at -52.9%. The stock trades at 6.7x book value.
Share count has increased 10.4% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 31.4 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in FWRD would have grown to $1276, compared to $2525 for the S&P 500. FWRD has returned 8.4% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -100% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Growth of $100: FWRD vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After FWRD Crosses Below the Line?
Across 19 historical episodes, buying FWRD when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +32.5% after 12 months (median +21.0%), compared to +14.5% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 68% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +88.9% vs +31.3% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment FWRD crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
FWRD has crossed below its 200-week MA 19 times with an average 1-year return of +39.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 1994 | Jul 1997 | 137 | 44.7% | -31.8% | +1275.2% |
| Aug 1998 | Sep 1998 | 4 | 18.0% | +360.5% | +1434.6% |
| Jul 2002 | Jul 2003 | 51 | 36.9% | +37.2% | +158.5% |
| Sep 2003 | Oct 2003 | 2 | 9.3% | +46.4% | +107.6% |
| Oct 2003 | Feb 2004 | 14 | 11.6% | +41.6% | +87.7% |
| Sep 2007 | Nov 2007 | 8 | 9.4% | -5.7% | +19.6% |
| Dec 2007 | Feb 2008 | 6 | 12.9% | -13.9% | +24.5% |
| Feb 2008 | Mar 2008 | 1 | 6.2% | -42.8% | +21.1% |
| Sep 2008 | Jun 2010 | 90 | 54.6% | -21.1% | +15.5% |
| Jun 2010 | Jul 2010 | 1 | 1.5% | +28.1% | +27.2% |
| Aug 2010 | Nov 2010 | 12 | 7.6% | +3.4% | +31.5% |
| Aug 2011 | Aug 2011 | 1 | 9.1% | +44.5% | +41.0% |
| Sep 2011 | Oct 2011 | 2 | 5.1% | +36.6% | +35.2% |
| Jan 2016 | Jan 2016 | 2 | 0.8% | +21.4% | -20.6% |
| Feb 2016 | Mar 2016 | 4 | 9.9% | +33.9% | -12.9% |
| Sep 2016 | Nov 2016 | 7 | 7.1% | +30.4% | -23.8% |
| Mar 2020 | Aug 2020 | 21 | 23.1% | +84.2% | -39.1% |
| Sep 2020 | Sep 2020 | 1 | 1.7% | +58.4% | -44.1% |
| Aug 2023 | Ongoing | 131+ | 85.1% | Ongoing | -61.2% |
| Average | 26 | — | +39.5% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02