FWRD
Forward Air Corporation Industrials - Integrated Freight & Logistics Investor Relations →
Forward Air Corporation (FWRD) closed at $15.47 as of 2026-03-20, trading 71.8% below its 200-week moving average of $54.88. This places FWRD in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -71.4% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 29, FWRD is in oversold territory.
Over the past 14 weeks, down-weeks have had more trading volume than up-weeks (0.63 buyers-vs-sellers ratio). That means when people are active, they're more often selling than buying. Sellers are still more in control than buyers.
Over the past 1639 weeks of data, FWRD has crossed below its 200-week moving average 19 times. On average, these episodes lasted 26 weeks. Historically, investors who bought FWRD at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +39.5%.
With a market cap of $488 million, FWRD is a small-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 13.5%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at -63.3%. The stock trades at 4.3x book value.
Share count has increased 18.4% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 31.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in FWRD would have grown to $660, compared to $2377 for the S&P 500. FWRD has returned 6.2% annualized vs 10.6% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 1 open-market purchase totaling $4,034,950. Notably, these purchases occurred while FWRD is trading below its 200-week moving average — insiders are buying when the market is most pessimistic.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -58.9% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: FWRD vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After FWRD Crosses Below the Line?
Across 19 historical episodes, buying FWRD when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +32.5% after 12 months (median +21.0%), compared to +14.5% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 68% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +88.9% vs +31.3% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment FWRD crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
FWRD has crossed below its 200-week MA 19 times with an average 1-year return of +39.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 1994 | Jul 1997 | 137 | 44.7% | -31.8% | +611.7% |
| Aug 1998 | Sep 1998 | 4 | 18.0% | +360.5% | +694.3% |
| Jul 2002 | Jul 2003 | 51 | 36.9% | +37.2% | +33.8% |
| Sep 2003 | Oct 2003 | 2 | 9.3% | +46.4% | +7.4% |
| Oct 2003 | Feb 2004 | 14 | 11.6% | +41.6% | -2.9% |
| Sep 2007 | Nov 2007 | 8 | 9.4% | -5.7% | -38.1% |
| Dec 2007 | Feb 2008 | 6 | 12.9% | -13.9% | -35.6% |
| Feb 2008 | Mar 2008 | 1 | 6.2% | -42.8% | -37.3% |
| Sep 2008 | Jun 2010 | 90 | 54.6% | -21.1% | -40.2% |
| Jun 2010 | Jul 2010 | 1 | 1.5% | +28.1% | -34.2% |
| Aug 2010 | Nov 2010 | 12 | 7.6% | +3.4% | -31.9% |
| Aug 2011 | Aug 2011 | 1 | 9.1% | +44.5% | -27.0% |
| Sep 2011 | Oct 2011 | 2 | 5.1% | +36.6% | -30.0% |
| Jan 2016 | Jan 2016 | 2 | 0.8% | +21.4% | -58.9% |
| Feb 2016 | Mar 2016 | 4 | 9.9% | +33.9% | -54.9% |
| Sep 2016 | Nov 2016 | 7 | 7.1% | +30.4% | -60.6% |
| Mar 2020 | Aug 2020 | 21 | 23.1% | +84.2% | -68.5% |
| Sep 2020 | Sep 2020 | 1 | 1.7% | +58.4% | -71.1% |
| Aug 2023 | Ongoing | 137+ | 85.1% | Ongoing | -79.9% |
| Average | 26 | — | +39.5% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FWRD below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-03-20, Forward Air Corporation (FWRD) is trading 71.8% below its 200-week moving average of $54.88. The current price is $15.47.
What is FWRD's 200-week moving average price?
Forward Air Corporation's 200-week moving average is $54.88 as of 2026-03-20. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when FWRD drops below its 200-week moving average?
FWRD has crossed below its 200-week moving average 19 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +39.5%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 26 weeks on average.
Is FWRD a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about FWRD as of 2026-03-20: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 29 (oversold). Free cash flow yield is 13.5%. Return on equity is -63.3%. Price-to-book is 4.3x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does FWRD compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 31.5 years, $100 invested in FWRD would have grown to $660, compared to $2377 for the S&P 500. That's 6.2% annualized vs 10.6% for the index. FWRD has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-03-20