FTI
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TechnipFMC plc (FTI) closed at $65.17 as of 2026-06-19, trading 125.1% above its 200-week moving average of $28.95. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 146.9% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 53, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.1x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.77 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1257 weeks of data, FTI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 6 times. On average, these episodes lasted 75 weeks. Historically, investors who bought FTI at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +29.5%.
With a market cap of $26.0 billion, FTI is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 4.0%. Return on equity stands at 33.4%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 7.7x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 9.4% over the past three years. FTI passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 24.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in FTI would have grown to $1794, compared to $1083 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 12.7% vs 10.4% for the index — confirming FTI as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 95.3% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: FTI vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After FTI Crosses Below the Line?
Across 6 historical episodes, buying FTI when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +21.7% after 12 months (median +30.0%), compared to +14.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 83% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +74.7% vs +31.2% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment FTI crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices FTI would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where FTI's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-23.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $59.33 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $71.48 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $89.88 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $121.05 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $185.30 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from FTI's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
FTI has crossed below its 200-week MA 6 times with an average 1-year return of +29.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2002 | Aug 2002 | 3 | 0.9% | +24.4% | +2195.2% |
| Sep 2002 | Oct 2002 | 3 | 4.7% | +29.4% | +2201.8% |
| Oct 2002 | Oct 2002 | 1 | 0.2% | +15.1% | +2184.8% |
| Oct 2008 | May 2009 | 30 | 35.3% | +88.2% | +523.8% |
| Jun 2009 | Jul 2009 | 2 | 6.1% | +49.7% | +424.8% |
| Nov 2014 | Oct 2022 | 412 | 75.9% | -30.1% | +100.1% |
| Average | 75 | — | +29.5% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FTI below its 200-week moving average?
No. TechnipFMC plc (FTI) is currently 125.1% above its 200-week moving average of $28.95. It would need to fall to $28.95 to cross below the line.
What is FTI's 200-week moving average price?
TechnipFMC plc's 200-week moving average is $28.95 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when FTI drops below its 200-week moving average?
FTI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 6 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +29.5%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 75 weeks on average.
Is FTI a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about FTI as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 53. Free cash flow yield is 4.0%. Return on equity is 33.4%. Price-to-book is 7.7x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does FTI compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 24.2 years, $100 invested in FTI would have grown to $1794, compared to $1083 for the S&P 500. That's 12.7% annualized vs 10.4% for the index. FTI has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does FTI pay a dividend?
Yes. TechnipFMC plc currently pays a dividend yield of 30.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19