FRO
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Frontline (FRO) closed at $49.21 as of 2026-09-11, trading 147.8% above its 200-week moving average of $19.86. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 134.6% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 76, FRO is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.2x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.76 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1261 weeks of data, FRO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 13 times. On average, these episodes lasted 42 weeks. Historically, investors who bought FRO at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +26.5%.
With a market cap of $11.0 billion, FRO is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 2.4%. Return on equity stands at 53.9%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 3.5x book value.
Over the past 24.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in FRO would have grown to $1980, compared to $1299 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 13.1% vs 11.2% for the index — confirming FRO as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 138.3% compound annual rate, with 1 consecutive year of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: FRO vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After FRO Crosses Below the Line?
Across 13 historical episodes, buying FRO when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +25.6% after 12 months (median +2.0%), compared to +21.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 54% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +83.2% vs +35.7% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment FRO crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices FRO would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where FRO's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-06-30).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $33.32 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $35.94 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $39.01 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $42.65 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $47.04 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | $2.62 | $2.61 | -0.5% |
| 2026-05-21 | $1.58 | $1.55 | -1.8% |
| 2026-02-27 | $1.13 | $1.03 | -8.6% |
| 2025-11-21 | $0.24 | $0.19 | -20.3% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from FRO's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
FRO has crossed below its 200-week MA 13 times with an average 1-year return of +26.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2002 | Dec 2002 | 24 | 58.2% | +101.3% | +1600.6% |
| Oct 2008 | Oct 2008 | 1 | 10.8% | +1.4% | -8.9% |
| Nov 2008 | Dec 2008 | 7 | 11.9% | -6.4% | -17.9% |
| Jan 2009 | Jan 2010 | 50 | 44.5% | +9.0% | -15.3% |
| Jan 2010 | Mar 2010 | 7 | 12.7% | -8.9% | -22.3% |
| Mar 2010 | Mar 2010 | 1 | 0.5% | -11.1% | -24.0% |
| Jun 2010 | Jul 2010 | 3 | 5.6% | -45.2% | -22.3% |
| Aug 2010 | Oct 2015 | 272 | 89.5% | -72.1% | -24.1% |
| Nov 2015 | Apr 2019 | 178 | 52.8% | -43.8% | +588.6% |
| Mar 2020 | Mar 2020 | 1 | 1.1% | +41.5% | +1194.5% |
| Oct 2020 | Nov 2020 | 2 | 6.6% | +62.8% | +1219.1% |
| Jan 2022 | Jan 2022 | 2 | 3.2% | +118.8% | +997.9% |
| Mar 2025 | Apr 2025 | 1 | 3.1% | +197.3% | +317.1% |
| Average | 42 | — | +26.5% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FRO below its 200-week moving average?
No. Frontline (FRO) is currently 147.8% above its 200-week moving average of $19.86. It would need to fall to $19.86 to cross below the line.
What is FRO's 200-week moving average price?
Frontline's 200-week moving average is $19.86 as of 2026-09-11. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when FRO drops below its 200-week moving average?
FRO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 13 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +26.5%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 42 weeks on average.
Is FRO a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about FRO as of 2026-09-11: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 76 (overbought). Free cash flow yield is 2.4%. Return on equity is 53.9%. Price-to-book is 3.5x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does FRO compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 24.2 years, $100 invested in FRO would have grown to $1980, compared to $1299 for the S&P 500. That's 13.1% annualized vs 11.2% for the index. FRO has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does FRO pay a dividend?
Yes. Frontline currently pays a dividend yield of 1112.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-11