FRO
Frontline Energy Investor Relations →
Frontline (FRO) closed at $39.37 as of 2026-07-31, trading 109.5% above its 200-week moving average of $18.80. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 110.8% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 59, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 0.8x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.84 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1255 weeks of data, FRO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 13 times. On average, these episodes lasted 42 weeks. Historically, investors who bought FRO at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +26.5%.
With a market cap of $8.8 billion, FRO is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 4.3%. Return on equity stands at 35.0%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 3.1x book value.
Over the past 24.1 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in FRO would have grown to $1584, compared to $1270 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 12.2% vs 11.1% for the index — confirming FRO as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 138.3% compound annual rate, with 1 consecutive year of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: FRO vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After FRO Crosses Below the Line?
Across 13 historical episodes, buying FRO when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +25.6% after 12 months (median +2.0%), compared to +21.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 54% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +83.2% vs +35.7% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment FRO crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices FRO would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where FRO's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $25.47 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $34.74 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $54.60 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $127.54 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | N/A | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from FRO's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
FRO has crossed below its 200-week MA 13 times with an average 1-year return of +26.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2002 | Dec 2002 | 24 | 58.2% | +101.3% | +1260.5% |
| Oct 2008 | Oct 2008 | 1 | 10.8% | +1.4% | -27.1% |
| Nov 2008 | Dec 2008 | 7 | 11.9% | -6.4% | -34.3% |
| Jan 2009 | Jan 2010 | 50 | 44.5% | +9.0% | -32.3% |
| Jan 2010 | Mar 2010 | 7 | 12.7% | -8.9% | -37.8% |
| Mar 2010 | Mar 2010 | 1 | 0.5% | -11.1% | -39.2% |
| Jun 2010 | Jul 2010 | 3 | 5.6% | -45.2% | -37.8% |
| Aug 2010 | Oct 2015 | 272 | 89.5% | -72.1% | -39.2% |
| Nov 2015 | Apr 2019 | 178 | 52.8% | -43.8% | +450.9% |
| Mar 2020 | Mar 2020 | 1 | 1.1% | +41.5% | +935.7% |
| Oct 2020 | Nov 2020 | 2 | 6.6% | +62.8% | +955.3% |
| Jan 2022 | Jan 2022 | 2 | 3.2% | +118.8% | +778.4% |
| Mar 2025 | Apr 2025 | 1 | 3.1% | +197.3% | +233.7% |
| Average | 42 | — | +26.5% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FRO below its 200-week moving average?
No. Frontline (FRO) is currently 109.5% above its 200-week moving average of $18.80. It would need to fall to $18.80 to cross below the line.
What is FRO's 200-week moving average price?
Frontline's 200-week moving average is $18.80 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when FRO drops below its 200-week moving average?
FRO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 13 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +26.5%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 42 weeks on average.
Is FRO a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about FRO as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 59. Free cash flow yield is 4.3%. Return on equity is 35.0%. Price-to-book is 3.1x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does FRO compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 24.1 years, $100 invested in FRO would have grown to $1584, compared to $1270 for the S&P 500. That's 12.2% annualized vs 11.1% for the index. FRO has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does FRO pay a dividend?
Yes. Frontline currently pays a dividend yield of 801.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31