FRME

First Merchants Corporation Financial Services - Banks - Regional Investor Relations →

NO
23.4% ABOVE
↑ Moving away Was 16.0% last week
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%+
Buy Threshold $34.31
14-Week RSI 86

First Merchants Corporation (FRME) closed at $42.34 as of 2026-02-02, trading 23.4% above its 200-week moving average of $34.31. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 16.0% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 86, FRME is in overbought territory.

Over the past 1863 weeks of data, FRME has crossed below its 200-week moving average 27 times. On average, these episodes lasted 14 weeks. Historically, investors who bought FRME at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +9.3%.

With a market cap of $2.7 billion, FRME is a mid-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 9.5%. The stock trades at 1.0x book value.

Share count has increased 8.5% over three years, indicating dilution.

Over the past 33.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in FRME would have grown to $1020, compared to $2849 for the S&P 500. FRME has returned 7.3% annualized vs 10.6% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.

Free cash flow has been growing at a 7.3% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.

Growth of $100: FRME vs S&P 500

Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.

What Happens After FRME Crosses Below the Line?

Across 25 historical episodes, buying FRME when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +4.9% after 12 months (median +13.0%), compared to +1.4% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 70% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +5.0% vs -1.0% for the index.

Each line shows $100 invested at the moment FRME crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.

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Historical Touches

FRME has crossed below its 200-week MA 27 times with an average 1-year return of +9.3% after recovery.

Crossed BelowRecoveredWeeksMax Depth1-Year ReturnReturn Since Touch
Jul 1990Jul 199012.8%+14.0%+1939.8%
Jul 1990Feb 19913016.8%+13.9%+1898.1%
Mar 1991May 199173.6%+70.6%+2039.4%
Mar 2000May 20001012.8%+10.2%+386.0%
Jun 2000Aug 200082.9%+11.6%+387.1%
Jan 2001Jan 200114.7%+25.5%+378.7%
Feb 2001Feb 200120.6%+12.7%+355.5%
Mar 2001Mar 200110.2%+21.6%+351.0%
May 2001May 200110.6%+33.3%+348.6%
May 2001Jun 200120.6%+38.3%+345.9%
Jul 2001Jul 200110.5%+30.8%+344.1%
Jun 2006Jun 200613.3%+13.3%+217.0%
Jul 2006Jul 200621.6%+10.2%+211.4%
Aug 2006Aug 200611.0%+5.1%+208.5%
Feb 2007Mar 200711.7%+21.4%+199.3%
Apr 2007Apr 200712.7%+18.7%+200.7%
Jul 2007Jan 20082721.5%-11.7%+207.2%
Jun 2008Sep 20081422.2%-55.9%+203.6%
Sep 2008Feb 201217669.1%-64.5%+230.0%
May 2019Jun 201913.7%-13.8%+59.1%
Aug 2019Aug 201910.6%-26.7%+50.7%
Feb 2020Dec 20204138.1%+24.4%+49.2%
Jul 2022Jul 202211.2%-13.2%+37.0%
Mar 2023Dec 20233830.3%-1.3%+36.0%
Jan 2024Apr 2024134.7%+36.9%+35.3%
May 2024Jul 202479.9%+16.2%+35.6%
Apr 2025Apr 202512.3%N/A+27.6%
Average14+9.3%

Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02