FOLD
Amicus Therapeutics Inc. Healthcare - Biotechnology Investor Relations →
Amicus Therapeutics Inc. (FOLD) closed at $14.49 as of 2026-05-01, trading 32.9% above its 200-week moving average of $10.91. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 33.1% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 84, FOLD is in overbought territory.
Over the past 939 weeks of data, FOLD has crossed below its 200-week moving average 19 times. On average, these episodes lasted 30 weeks. Historically, investors who bought FOLD at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +0.8%.
With a market cap of $4.5 billion, FOLD is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 1.1%. Return on equity stands at -11.6%. The stock trades at 16.4x book value.
Share count has increased 10.6% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 18 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in FOLD would have grown to $139, compared to $714 for the S&P 500. FOLD has returned 1.9% annualized vs 11.5% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: FOLD vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After FOLD Crosses Below the Line?
Across 19 historical episodes, buying FOLD when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +0.2% after 12 months (median -5.0%), compared to +18.9% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 37% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +18.7% vs +36.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment FOLD crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices FOLD would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where FOLD's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2025-12-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $13.01 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $13.93 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $14.99 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $16.23 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $17.68 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from FOLD's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
FOLD has crossed below its 200-week MA 19 times with an average 1-year return of +0.8% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 2008 | Jul 2008 | 9 | 20.8% | -22.7% | +45.8% |
| Oct 2008 | Jan 2012 | 173 | 78.2% | -61.0% | +15.9% |
| Feb 2012 | Jul 2012 | 20 | 27.2% | -54.4% | +128.5% |
| Jul 2012 | Oct 2012 | 12 | 15.9% | -61.7% | +154.7% |
| Oct 2012 | Aug 2014 | 94 | 55.8% | -56.3% | +178.7% |
| Feb 2016 | Feb 2016 | 1 | 10.8% | +16.3% | +171.9% |
| Jun 2016 | Jul 2016 | 7 | 11.6% | +39.8% | +139.5% |
| Oct 2016 | Nov 2016 | 1 | 3.2% | +135.0% | +136.0% |
| Nov 2016 | Feb 2017 | 13 | 25.0% | +135.0% | +149.8% |
| Nov 2018 | Dec 2018 | 8 | 21.8% | -15.6% | +36.8% |
| Aug 2019 | Apr 2020 | 35 | 26.1% | +38.9% | +39.7% |
| Jun 2020 | Jun 2020 | 1 | 2.0% | -2.8% | +32.6% |
| Feb 2021 | Aug 2022 | 77 | 47.9% | -27.8% | +15.3% |
| Aug 2022 | Dec 2022 | 18 | 14.2% | +13.8% | +28.2% |
| Mar 2023 | May 2023 | 12 | 5.4% | +7.5% | +26.7% |
| Oct 2023 | Dec 2023 | 10 | 13.5% | -4.3% | +30.8% |
| Jan 2024 | Jan 2024 | 1 | 1.1% | -21.8% | +20.4% |
| Mar 2024 | Oct 2024 | 31 | 23.9% | -22.5% | +26.2% |
| Nov 2024 | Dec 2025 | 57 | 47.2% | -19.3% | +31.8% |
| Average | 30 | — | +0.8% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FOLD below its 200-week moving average?
No. Amicus Therapeutics Inc. (FOLD) is currently 32.9% above its 200-week moving average of $10.91. It would need to fall to $10.91 to cross below the line.
What is FOLD's 200-week moving average price?
Amicus Therapeutics Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $10.91 as of 2026-05-01. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when FOLD drops below its 200-week moving average?
FOLD has crossed below its 200-week moving average 19 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +0.8%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 30 weeks on average.
Is FOLD a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about FOLD as of 2026-05-01: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 84 (overbought). Free cash flow yield is 1.1%. Return on equity is -11.6%. Price-to-book is 16.4x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does FOLD compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 18 years, $100 invested in FOLD would have grown to $139, compared to $714 for the S&P 500. That's 1.9% annualized vs 11.5% for the index. FOLD has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-05-01