FNV
Franco-Nevada Corporation Materials - Gold Royalties & Streaming Investor Relations →
Franco-Nevada Corporation (FNV) closed at $266.00 as of 2026-09-11, trading 67.8% above its 200-week moving average of $158.47. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 68.4% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 70, FNV is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.1x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.95 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 931 weeks of data, FNV has crossed below its 200-week moving average 14 times. On average, these episodes lasted 8 weeks. Historically, investors who bought FNV at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +40.8%.
With a market cap of $51.3 billion, FNV is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 0.9%. Return on equity stands at 19.9%, a solid level. The stock trades at 6.2x book value.
Over the past 17.9 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in FNV would have grown to $2371, compared to $1172 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 19.3% vs 14.7% for the index — confirming FNV as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -100% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: FNV vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After FNV Crosses Below the Line?
Across 14 historical episodes, buying FNV when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +34.9% after 12 months (median +32.0%), compared to +18.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 79% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +62.1% vs +39.9% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment FNV crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices FNV would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where FNV's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-11-03.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $200.20 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $214.47 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $230.94 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $250.15 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $272.85 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | $1.97 | $1.81 | -8.3% |
| 2026-03-10 | $1.67 | $1.85 | +10.9% |
| 2025-11-03 | $1.38 | $1.43 | +3.8% |
| 2025-08-11 | $1.12 | $1.24 | +10.7% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from FNV's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
FNV has crossed below its 200-week MA 14 times with an average 1-year return of +40.8% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2008 | Jan 2009 | 10 | 36.5% | +106.5% | +2271.3% |
| Jun 2013 | Jul 2013 | 4 | 12.7% | +69.6% | +835.5% |
| Dec 2013 | Dec 2013 | 3 | 5.4% | +38.1% | +721.4% |
| Jul 2015 | Sep 2015 | 12 | 12.6% | +76.2% | +555.9% |
| Nov 2015 | Nov 2015 | 1 | 0.6% | +47.5% | +543.9% |
| Dec 2015 | Feb 2016 | 7 | 9.2% | +24.9% | +547.4% |
| Sep 2018 | Sep 2018 | 2 | 1.6% | +60.4% | +371.2% |
| Oct 2018 | Oct 2018 | 1 | 0.3% | +56.1% | +361.1% |
| Sep 2022 | Sep 2022 | 2 | 3.9% | +22.9% | +133.1% |
| Oct 2022 | Oct 2022 | 1 | 3.7% | +21.8% | +139.2% |
| Feb 2023 | Feb 2023 | 1 | 0.2% | -13.1% | +119.4% |
| Sep 2023 | Oct 2023 | 2 | 1.3% | -4.8% | +104.4% |
| Oct 2023 | Oct 2024 | 50 | 20.4% | +6.9% | +118.9% |
| Nov 2024 | Jan 2025 | 12 | 13.0% | +58.1% | +120.2% |
| Average | 8 | — | +40.8% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FNV below its 200-week moving average?
No. Franco-Nevada Corporation (FNV) is currently 67.8% above its 200-week moving average of $158.47. It would need to fall to $158.47 to cross below the line.
What is FNV's 200-week moving average price?
Franco-Nevada Corporation's 200-week moving average is $158.47 as of 2026-09-11. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when FNV drops below its 200-week moving average?
FNV has crossed below its 200-week moving average 14 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +40.8%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 8 weeks on average.
Is FNV a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about FNV as of 2026-09-11: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 70 (overbought). Free cash flow yield is 0.9%. Return on equity is 19.9%. Price-to-book is 6.2x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does FNV compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 17.9 years, $100 invested in FNV would have grown to $2371, compared to $1172 for the S&P 500. That's 19.3% annualized vs 14.7% for the index. FNV has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does FNV pay a dividend?
Yes. Franco-Nevada Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 68.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-11