FMC
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FMC Corporation (FMC) closed at $10.09 as of 2026-09-18, trading 80.1% below its 200-week moving average of $50.76. This places FMC in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -77.8% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 40, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.6x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.93 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2378 weeks of data, FMC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 24 times. On average, these episodes lasted 24 weeks. Historically, investors who bought FMC at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +9.3%.
With a market cap of $1264 million, FMC is a small-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 13.1%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at -88.4%. The stock trades at 0.8x book value.
This stock also meets the Yartseva multibagger criteria as a small-cap with strong free cash flow yield and reasonable book value.
Over the past 33.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in FMC would have grown to $254, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. FMC has returned 2.8% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -100% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: FMC vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After FMC Crosses Below the Line?
Across 20 historical episodes, buying FMC when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -3.8% after 12 months (median -13.0%), compared to +15.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 37% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +18.7% vs +30.1% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment FMC crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices FMC would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where FMC's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-28.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $7.83 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $10.49 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $15.87 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $32.62 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | N/A | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | $0.22 | $0.26 | +17.0% |
| 2026-04-29 | $-0.38 | $-0.23 | +39.6% |
| 2026-02-04 | $1.20 | $1.20 | -0.2% |
| 2025-10-29 | $0.85 | $0.89 | +4.1% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from FMC's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
FMC has crossed below its 200-week MA 24 times with an average 1-year return of +9.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1981 | Aug 1982 | 50 | 15.5% | +6.4% | +2201.5% |
| Apr 1990 | May 1990 | 5 | 8.4% | +22.3% | +280.8% |
| Jun 1990 | Jul 1990 | 4 | 5.1% | +31.2% | +272.2% |
| Aug 1990 | Feb 1991 | 26 | 28.4% | +38.1% | +256.1% |
| Apr 1991 | Apr 1991 | 2 | 1.3% | +29.9% | +243.7% |
| Apr 1997 | Apr 1997 | 1 | 0.6% | +30.0% | +102.9% |
| Dec 1997 | Feb 1998 | 8 | 6.6% | -13.7% | +92.6% |
| Jun 1998 | Jul 1999 | 55 | 29.6% | +1.1% | +79.0% |
| Jul 1999 | Jul 1999 | 1 | 0.9% | -13.7% | +82.5% |
| Aug 1999 | Aug 2000 | 51 | 40.5% | -0.2% | +86.6% |
| Aug 2001 | Dec 2001 | 21 | 25.4% | -19.8% | +98.8% |
| Jan 2002 | Jan 2002 | 1 | 2.6% | -14.1% | +105.7% |
| Jun 2002 | Dec 2003 | 78 | 52.6% | -34.3% | +103.9% |
| Oct 2008 | Oct 2008 | 3 | 22.5% | +69.1% | -3.7% |
| Nov 2008 | Dec 2008 | 4 | 13.8% | +50.2% | -14.4% |
| Feb 2009 | Mar 2009 | 4 | 13.1% | +42.8% | -21.9% |
| Jul 2009 | Jul 2009 | 1 | 3.9% | +45.6% | -23.8% |
| Oct 2014 | Oct 2014 | 1 | 4.8% | -26.1% | -71.5% |
| Nov 2014 | Dec 2014 | 3 | 3.0% | -21.4% | -72.3% |
| Mar 2015 | Apr 2015 | 2 | 1.3% | -28.0% | -73.7% |
| May 2015 | Nov 2016 | 79 | 41.5% | -14.5% | -73.8% |
| Mar 2020 | Mar 2020 | 1 | 5.6% | +71.4% | -81.4% |
| May 2023 | May 2023 | 1 | 0.8% | -38.4% | -88.9% |
| Jun 2023 | Ongoing | 169+ | 82.0% | Ongoing | -89.1% |
| Average | 24 | — | +9.3% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FMC below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-09-18, FMC Corporation (FMC) is trading 80.1% below its 200-week moving average of $50.76. The current price is $10.09.
What is FMC's 200-week moving average price?
FMC Corporation's 200-week moving average is $50.76 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when FMC drops below its 200-week moving average?
FMC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 24 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +9.3%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 24 weeks on average.
Is FMC a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about FMC as of 2026-09-18: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 40. Free cash flow yield is 13.1%. Return on equity is -88.4%. Price-to-book is 0.8x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does FMC compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.8 years, $100 invested in FMC would have grown to $254, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That's 2.8% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. FMC has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does FMC pay a dividend?
Yes. FMC Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 317.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18