FMBH
First Mid Bancshares, Inc. Financial Services - Banks - Regional Investor Relations →
First Mid Bancshares, Inc. (FMBH) closed at $45.86 as of 2026-06-19, trading 38.3% above its 200-week moving average of $33.15. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 41.0% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 74, FMBH is in overbought territory.
A big spike in selling this week — 2.1x the usual volume, and the price dropped. Sometimes this kind of heavy selling marks the end of a decline. The idea is that the last reluctant holders have finally sold, leaving fewer sellers left to push the price lower.
Over the past 1374 weeks of data, FMBH has crossed below its 200-week moving average 15 times. On average, these episodes lasted 28 weeks. Historically, investors who bought FMBH at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +8.3%.
With a market cap of $1221 million, FMBH is a small-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 9.8%. The stock trades at 1.1x book value.
Share count has increased 17.3% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 26.4 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in FMBH would have grown to $814, compared to $867 for the S&P 500. FMBH has returned 8.3% annualized vs 8.5% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 26.8% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: FMBH vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After FMBH Crosses Below the Line?
Across 15 historical episodes, buying FMBH when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +9.7% after 12 months (median +12.0%), compared to +7.5% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 67% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +30.9% vs +25.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment FMBH crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices FMBH would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where FMBH's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-23.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $40.76 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $42.63 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $44.66 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $46.91 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $49.39 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from FMBH's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
FMBH has crossed below its 200-week MA 15 times with an average 1-year return of +8.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2000 | Jul 2001 | 73 | 18.6% | +0.8% | +714.5% |
| Dec 2007 | May 2008 | 18 | 8.4% | -10.1% | +180.1% |
| Jun 2008 | Jan 2012 | 184 | 36.8% | -24.2% | +172.6% |
| Jun 2014 | Jun 2014 | 2 | 0.7% | +2.6% | +206.1% |
| Jul 2014 | Jul 2014 | 2 | 5.7% | +18.3% | +221.8% |
| Nov 2014 | May 2015 | 26 | 13.3% | +10.7% | +200.8% |
| May 2015 | May 2015 | 1 | 2.4% | +30.5% | +199.5% |
| Jun 2015 | Jun 2015 | 1 | 2.3% | +29.4% | +198.3% |
| Aug 2019 | Aug 2019 | 1 | 2.2% | -13.9% | +77.2% |
| Feb 2020 | Nov 2020 | 42 | 37.8% | +10.0% | +66.1% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 2 | 4.4% | -14.2% | +59.1% |
| Dec 2022 | Nov 2023 | 50 | 31.2% | +10.0% | +55.2% |
| Jan 2024 | May 2024 | 14 | 8.1% | +26.3% | +58.6% |
| May 2024 | Jul 2024 | 7 | 6.5% | +12.4% | +51.1% |
| Mar 2025 | Apr 2025 | 3 | 6.2% | +35.5% | +50.1% |
| Average | 28 | — | +8.3% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FMBH below its 200-week moving average?
No. First Mid Bancshares, Inc. (FMBH) is currently 38.3% above its 200-week moving average of $33.15. It would need to fall to $33.15 to cross below the line.
What is FMBH's 200-week moving average price?
First Mid Bancshares, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $33.15 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when FMBH drops below its 200-week moving average?
FMBH has crossed below its 200-week moving average 15 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +8.3%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 28 weeks on average.
Is FMBH a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about FMBH as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 74 (overbought). Return on equity is 9.8%. Price-to-book is 1.1x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does FMBH compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 26.4 years, $100 invested in FMBH would have grown to $814, compared to $867 for the S&P 500. That's 8.3% annualized vs 8.5% for the index. FMBH has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does FMBH pay a dividend?
Yes. First Mid Bancshares, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 217.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19