FMBH
First Mid Bancshares, Inc. Financial Services - Banks - Regional Investor Relations →
First Mid Bancshares, Inc. (FMBH) closed at $52.09 as of 2026-07-31, trading 54.5% above its 200-week moving average of $33.72. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 51.8% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 80, FMBH is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.3x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.13 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1380 weeks of data, FMBH has crossed below its 200-week moving average 15 times. On average, these episodes lasted 28 weeks. Historically, investors who bought FMBH at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +8.1%.
With a market cap of $1386 million, FMBH is a small-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 10.0%. The stock trades at 1.3x book value.
Share count has increased 17.3% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 26.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in FMBH would have grown to $925, compared to $867 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 8.8% vs 8.5% for the index — confirming FMBH as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 26.8% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: FMBH vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After FMBH Crosses Below the Line?
Across 15 historical episodes, buying FMBH when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +9.5% after 12 months (median +12.0%), compared to +7.5% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 67% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +30.7% vs +25.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment FMBH crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices FMBH would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where FMBH's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $41.01 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $42.95 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $45.07 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $47.41 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $50.01 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from FMBH's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
FMBH has crossed below its 200-week MA 15 times with an average 1-year return of +8.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2000 | Jul 2001 | 73 | 18.6% | +0.8% | +825.2% |
| Dec 2007 | May 2008 | 18 | 8.5% | -10.1% | +218.1% |
| Jun 2008 | Jan 2012 | 185 | 36.9% | -26.5% | +204.3% |
| Jun 2014 | Jun 2014 | 2 | 0.7% | +2.6% | +247.7% |
| Jul 2014 | Jul 2014 | 2 | 5.8% | +18.3% | +265.6% |
| Nov 2014 | May 2015 | 26 | 13.3% | +10.7% | +241.6% |
| May 2015 | May 2015 | 1 | 2.5% | +30.5% | +240.2% |
| Jun 2015 | Jun 2015 | 1 | 2.4% | +29.4% | +238.8% |
| Aug 2019 | Aug 2019 | 1 | 2.3% | -13.9% | +101.3% |
| Feb 2020 | Nov 2020 | 42 | 37.9% | +10.0% | +88.6% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 2 | 4.5% | -14.2% | +80.7% |
| Dec 2022 | Nov 2023 | 50 | 31.3% | +10.0% | +76.3% |
| Jan 2024 | May 2024 | 14 | 8.1% | +26.3% | +80.2% |
| May 2024 | Jul 2024 | 7 | 6.6% | +12.4% | +71.7% |
| Mar 2025 | Apr 2025 | 3 | 6.2% | +35.5% | +70.5% |
| Average | 28 | — | +8.1% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FMBH below its 200-week moving average?
No. First Mid Bancshares, Inc. (FMBH) is currently 54.5% above its 200-week moving average of $33.72. It would need to fall to $33.72 to cross below the line.
What is FMBH's 200-week moving average price?
First Mid Bancshares, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $33.72 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when FMBH drops below its 200-week moving average?
FMBH has crossed below its 200-week moving average 15 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +8.1%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 28 weeks on average.
Is FMBH a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about FMBH as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 80 (overbought). Return on equity is 10.0%. Price-to-book is 1.3x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does FMBH compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 26.5 years, $100 invested in FMBH would have grown to $925, compared to $867 for the S&P 500. That's 8.8% annualized vs 8.5% for the index. FMBH has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does FMBH pay a dividend?
Yes. First Mid Bancshares, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 200.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31