FLO
Flowers Foods, Inc. Consumer Defensive - Packaged Foods Investor Relations →
Flowers Foods, Inc. (FLO) closed at $7.78 as of 2026-06-19, trading 55.8% below its 200-week moving average of $17.60. This places FLO in the extreme value zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -56.6% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 42, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.1x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.03 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2365 weeks of data, FLO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 17 times. On average, these episodes lasted 20 weeks. Historically, investors who bought FLO at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +32.7%.
With a market cap of $1649 million, FLO is a small-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 14.6%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 5.4%. The stock trades at 1.2x book value.
This stock also meets the Yartseva multibagger criteria as a small-cap with strong free cash flow yield and reasonable book value.
Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in FLO would have grown to $2927, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. FLO has returned 10.6% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 18.5% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: FLO vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After FLO Crosses Below the Line?
Across 14 historical episodes, buying FLO when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +21.8% after 12 months (median +10.0%), compared to +16.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 85% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +40.0% vs +26.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment FLO crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices FLO would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where FLO's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-08-14.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $6.59 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $7.15 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $7.80 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $8.60 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $9.57 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from FLO's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
FLO has crossed below its 200-week MA 17 times with an average 1-year return of +32.7% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1981 | Mar 1981 | 3 | 3.9% | +23.6% | +25475.9% |
| Sep 1981 | Sep 1981 | 3 | 3.3% | +94.6% | +24323.8% |
| Aug 1990 | Jun 1991 | 42 | 29.7% | -3.6% | +3483.1% |
| Jul 1991 | Dec 1991 | 25 | 14.3% | +17.5% | +3486.2% |
| Mar 1992 | Mar 1992 | 3 | 3.4% | +23.3% | +3532.5% |
| Aug 1999 | May 2000 | 40 | 31.0% | +36.9% | +1107.0% |
| Oct 2000 | Mar 2001 | 24 | 16.0% | +104.0% | +945.1% |
| Jan 2003 | Jan 2003 | 1 | 2.7% | +136.0% | +641.8% |
| Feb 2016 | May 2016 | 12 | 17.9% | +36.9% | -23.5% |
| May 2016 | Dec 2016 | 31 | 24.7% | +3.0% | -36.2% |
| Feb 2017 | Mar 2017 | 2 | 0.6% | +14.7% | -39.8% |
| May 2017 | Sep 2017 | 21 | 8.3% | +23.2% | -39.0% |
| Oct 2017 | Nov 2017 | 1 | 1.0% | +5.9% | -38.6% |
| Dec 2018 | Dec 2018 | 2 | 1.4% | +25.5% | -40.8% |
| Aug 2023 | Apr 2024 | 33 | 12.1% | +5.1% | -59.8% |
| May 2024 | Sep 2024 | 14 | 7.6% | -23.9% | -61.4% |
| Sep 2024 | Ongoing | 90+ | 60.7% | Ongoing | -60.8% |
| Average | 20 | — | +32.7% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FLO below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-06-19, Flowers Foods, Inc. (FLO) is trading 55.8% below its 200-week moving average of $17.60. The current price is $7.78.
What is FLO's 200-week moving average price?
Flowers Foods, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $17.60 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when FLO drops below its 200-week moving average?
FLO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 17 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +32.7%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 20 weeks on average.
Is FLO a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about FLO as of 2026-06-19: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 42. Free cash flow yield is 14.6%. Return on equity is 5.4%. Price-to-book is 1.2x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does FLO compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in FLO would have grown to $2927, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 10.6% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. FLO has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does FLO pay a dividend?
Yes. Flowers Foods, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 658.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19