FLO
Flowers Foods, Inc. Consumer Defensive - Packaged Foods Investor Relations →
Flowers Foods, Inc. (FLO) closed at $5.94 as of 2026-09-18, trading 63.6% below its 200-week moving average of $16.32. This places FLO in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -62.9% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 33, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.7x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.91 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2378 weeks of data, FLO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 17 times. On average, these episodes lasted 21 weeks. Historically, investors who bought FLO at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +32.4%.
With a market cap of $1260 million, FLO is a small-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 19.1%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 5.4%. The stock trades at 0.9x book value.
This stock also meets the Yartseva multibagger criteria as a small-cap with strong free cash flow yield and reasonable book value.
Over the past 33.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in FLO would have grown to $2281, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. FLO has returned 9.7% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 18.5% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: FLO vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After FLO Crosses Below the Line?
Across 14 historical episodes, buying FLO when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +21.4% after 12 months (median +10.0%), compared to +15.4% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 85% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +27.8% vs +27.2% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment FLO crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices FLO would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where FLO's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-11-05.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $6.09 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $6.77 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $7.62 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $8.72 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $10.19 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | $0.22 | $0.21 | -5.8% |
| 2026-05-21 | $0.27 | $0.29 | +8.2% |
| 2026-02-12 | $0.15 | $0.22 | +45.6% |
| 2025-11-06 | $0.23 | $0.23 | -1.4% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from FLO's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
FLO has crossed below its 200-week MA 17 times with an average 1-year return of +32.4% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1981 | Mar 1981 | 3 | 3.9% | +23.6% | +19834.9% |
| Sep 1981 | Sep 1981 | 3 | 3.3% | +94.6% | +18937.0% |
| Aug 1990 | Jun 1991 | 42 | 28.8% | -3.6% | +2692.8% |
| Jul 1991 | Dec 1991 | 25 | 14.4% | +17.5% | +2695.3% |
| Mar 1992 | Mar 1992 | 3 | 3.5% | +23.3% | +2731.3% |
| Jul 1999 | May 2000 | 41 | 31.0% | +33.0% | +805.5% |
| Oct 2000 | Mar 2001 | 24 | 16.1% | +104.0% | +714.6% |
| Jan 2003 | Jan 2003 | 1 | 2.7% | +136.0% | +478.2% |
| Feb 2016 | May 2016 | 12 | 18.0% | +36.9% | -40.4% |
| May 2016 | Dec 2016 | 31 | 24.7% | +3.0% | -50.3% |
| Feb 2017 | Feb 2017 | 1 | 0.7% | +14.7% | -53.0% |
| May 2017 | Sep 2017 | 21 | 8.3% | +23.2% | -52.4% |
| Oct 2017 | Nov 2017 | 1 | 1.0% | +5.9% | -52.2% |
| Dec 2018 | Dec 2018 | 2 | 1.4% | +25.5% | -53.9% |
| Aug 2023 | Apr 2024 | 33 | 12.1% | +4.1% | -69.0% |
| May 2024 | Sep 2024 | 14 | 7.6% | -23.9% | -69.9% |
| Sep 2024 | Ongoing | 103+ | 63.6% | Ongoing | -69.4% |
| Average | 21 | — | +32.4% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FLO below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-09-18, Flowers Foods, Inc. (FLO) is trading 63.6% below its 200-week moving average of $16.32. The current price is $5.94.
What is FLO's 200-week moving average price?
Flowers Foods, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $16.32 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when FLO drops below its 200-week moving average?
FLO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 17 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +32.4%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 21 weeks on average.
Is FLO a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about FLO as of 2026-09-18: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 33. Free cash flow yield is 19.1%. Return on equity is 5.4%. Price-to-book is 0.9x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does FLO compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.8 years, $100 invested in FLO would have grown to $2281, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That's 9.7% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. FLO has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does FLO pay a dividend?
Yes. Flowers Foods, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 842.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18