FLO
Flowers Foods, Inc. Consumer Defensive - Packaged Foods Investor Relations →
Flowers Foods, Inc. (FLO) closed at $11.96 as of 2026-02-02, trading 39.3% below its 200-week moving average of $19.71. This places FLO in the extreme value zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -42.2% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 54, indicating neutral momentum.
Over the past 2346 weeks of data, FLO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 17 times. On average, these episodes lasted 19 weeks. Historically, investors who bought FLO at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +32.7%.
With a market cap of $2.5 billion, FLO is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 7.7%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 13.7%. The stock trades at 1.8x book value.
Over the past 33.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in FLO would have grown to $4308, compared to $2849 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 12.0% vs 10.6% for the index — confirming FLO as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 28% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Growth of $100: FLO vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After FLO Crosses Below the Line?
Across 14 historical episodes, buying FLO when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +21.8% after 12 months (median +10.0%), compared to +16.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 85% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +50.3% vs +23.9% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment FLO crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
FLO has crossed below its 200-week MA 17 times with an average 1-year return of +32.7% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1981 | Mar 1981 | 3 | 3.9% | +23.6% | +37547.6% |
| Sep 1981 | Sep 1981 | 3 | 3.3% | +94.6% | +35851.8% |
| Aug 1990 | Jun 1991 | 42 | 29.7% | -3.6% | +5174.2% |
| Jul 1991 | Dec 1991 | 25 | 14.3% | +17.5% | +5178.9% |
| Mar 1992 | Mar 1992 | 3 | 3.4% | +23.3% | +5247.0% |
| Aug 1999 | May 2000 | 40 | 31.0% | +36.9% | +1676.6% |
| Oct 2000 | Mar 2001 | 24 | 16.0% | +104.0% | +1438.3% |
| Jan 2003 | Jan 2003 | 1 | 2.7% | +136.0% | +991.9% |
| Feb 2016 | May 2016 | 12 | 17.9% | +36.9% | +12.6% |
| May 2016 | Dec 2016 | 31 | 24.7% | +3.0% | -6.1% |
| Feb 2017 | Mar 2017 | 2 | 0.6% | +14.7% | -11.3% |
| May 2017 | Sep 2017 | 21 | 8.3% | +23.2% | -10.2% |
| Oct 2017 | Nov 2017 | 1 | 1.0% | +5.9% | -9.7% |
| Dec 2018 | Dec 2018 | 2 | 1.4% | +25.5% | -12.9% |
| Aug 2023 | Apr 2024 | 33 | 12.1% | +5.1% | -40.9% |
| May 2024 | Sep 2024 | 14 | 7.6% | -23.9% | -43.1% |
| Sep 2024 | Ongoing | 71+ | 49.2% | Ongoing | -42.2% |
| Average | 19 | — | +32.7% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02