FIX
Comfort Systems USA, Inc. Industrials - Engineering & Construction Investor Relations →
Comfort Systems USA, Inc. (FIX) closed at $1967.41 as of 2026-06-19, trading 304.2% above its 200-week moving average of $486.69. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 293.3% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 82, FIX is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.3x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.02 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1464 weeks of data, FIX has crossed below its 200-week moving average 14 times. On average, these episodes lasted 32 weeks. Historically, investors who bought FIX at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +17.9%.
With a market cap of $69.2 billion, FIX is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 1.6%. Return on equity stands at 53.3%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 107.2x book value.
FIX passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 28.1 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in FIX would have grown to $10480, compared to $1074 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 18.0% vs 8.8% for the index — confirming FIX as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 59.7% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: FIX vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After FIX Crosses Below the Line?
Across 14 historical episodes, buying FIX when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +23.1% after 12 months (median +12.0%), compared to +17.9% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 57% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +25.7% vs +37.6% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment FIX crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices FIX would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where FIX's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-23.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $1494.04 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $1635.12 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $1805.63 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $2015.83 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $2281.43 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from FIX's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
FIX has crossed below its 200-week MA 14 times with an average 1-year return of +17.9% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1998 | Aug 1998 | 1 | 0.7% | -23.9% | +12415.5% |
| Aug 1998 | Sep 2003 | 263 | 85.9% | -26.3% | +12659.3% |
| Jan 2008 | Jan 2008 | 1 | 3.9% | +9.5% | +24388.4% |
| Oct 2008 | Jul 2009 | 42 | 37.4% | +3.9% | +21475.1% |
| Aug 2009 | Sep 2009 | 2 | 4.7% | -0.3% | +20578.1% |
| Sep 2009 | Dec 2009 | 10 | 8.2% | -2.2% | +20559.7% |
| Jan 2010 | Mar 2010 | 5 | 3.8% | +10.7% | +19628.2% |
| May 2010 | Nov 2010 | 30 | 16.3% | +0.5% | +20983.5% |
| May 2011 | Jan 2012 | 36 | 25.0% | -7.3% | +20884.2% |
| Feb 2012 | Jul 2012 | 22 | 16.0% | +28.0% | +21796.6% |
| Aug 2012 | Sep 2012 | 1 | 2.2% | +48.6% | +21182.8% |
| Oct 2012 | Nov 2012 | 7 | 5.6% | +71.1% | +21182.8% |
| Aug 2019 | Sep 2019 | 4 | 6.2% | +39.0% | +5207.5% |
| Mar 2020 | Jul 2020 | 20 | 26.6% | +98.7% | +5266.3% |
| Average | 32 | — | +17.9% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FIX below its 200-week moving average?
No. Comfort Systems USA, Inc. (FIX) is currently 304.2% above its 200-week moving average of $486.69. It would need to fall to $486.69 to cross below the line.
What is FIX's 200-week moving average price?
Comfort Systems USA, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $486.69 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when FIX drops below its 200-week moving average?
FIX has crossed below its 200-week moving average 14 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +17.9%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 32 weeks on average.
Is FIX a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about FIX as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 82 (overbought). Free cash flow yield is 1.6%. Return on equity is 53.3%. Price-to-book is 107.2x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does FIX compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 28.1 years, $100 invested in FIX would have grown to $10480, compared to $1074 for the S&P 500. That's 18.0% annualized vs 8.8% for the index. FIX has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does FIX pay a dividend?
Yes. Comfort Systems USA, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 14.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19