FIX
Comfort Systems USA, Inc. Industrials - Engineering & Construction Investor Relations →
Comfort Systems USA, Inc. (FIX) closed at $1651.37 as of 2026-09-18, trading 179.9% above its 200-week moving average of $589.97. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 190.4% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 39, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.2x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.76 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1477 weeks of data, FIX has crossed below its 200-week moving average 14 times. On average, these episodes lasted 32 weeks. Historically, investors who bought FIX at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +17.9%.
With a market cap of $58.1 billion, FIX is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 3.2%. Return on equity stands at 55.3%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 90.0x book value.
FIX passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 28.3 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in FIX would have grown to $8801, compared to $1094 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 17.1% vs 8.8% for the index — confirming FIX as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 59.7% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: FIX vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After FIX Crosses Below the Line?
Across 14 historical episodes, buying FIX when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +23.1% after 12 months (median +12.0%), compared to +17.9% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 57% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +25.7% vs +37.6% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment FIX crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices FIX would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where FIX's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-22.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $1513.76 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $1679.15 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $1885.11 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $2148.66 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $2497.88 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | $10.46 | $12.53 | +19.9% |
| 2026-04-23 | $6.81 | $10.51 | +54.4% |
| 2026-02-19 | $6.75 | $9.37 | +38.7% |
| 2025-10-23 | $6.29 | $8.25 | +31.3% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from FIX's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
FIX has crossed below its 200-week MA 14 times with an average 1-year return of +17.9% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1998 | Aug 1998 | 1 | 0.7% | -23.9% | +10410.5% |
| Aug 1998 | Sep 2003 | 263 | 85.9% | -26.3% | +10615.3% |
| Jan 2008 | Jan 2008 | 1 | 3.9% | +9.5% | +20465.3% |
| Oct 2008 | Jul 2009 | 42 | 37.5% | +3.9% | +18018.8% |
| Aug 2009 | Sep 2009 | 2 | 4.7% | -0.3% | +17265.4% |
| Sep 2009 | Dec 2009 | 10 | 8.2% | -2.2% | +17250.0% |
| Jan 2010 | Mar 2010 | 5 | 3.9% | +10.7% | +16467.7% |
| May 2010 | Nov 2010 | 30 | 16.4% | +0.5% | +17605.9% |
| May 2011 | Jan 2012 | 36 | 25.0% | -7.3% | +17522.5% |
| Feb 2012 | Jul 2012 | 22 | 16.0% | +28.0% | +18288.7% |
| Aug 2012 | Sep 2012 | 1 | 2.2% | +48.6% | +17773.3% |
| Oct 2012 | Nov 2012 | 7 | 5.7% | +71.1% | +17773.3% |
| Aug 2019 | Sep 2019 | 4 | 6.2% | +39.3% | +4357.3% |
| Mar 2020 | Jul 2020 | 20 | 26.3% | +99.0% | +4406.6% |
| Average | 32 | — | +17.9% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FIX below its 200-week moving average?
No. Comfort Systems USA, Inc. (FIX) is currently 179.9% above its 200-week moving average of $589.97. It would need to fall to $589.97 to cross below the line.
What is FIX's 200-week moving average price?
Comfort Systems USA, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $589.97 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when FIX drops below its 200-week moving average?
FIX has crossed below its 200-week moving average 14 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +17.9%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 32 weeks on average.
Is FIX a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about FIX as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 39. Free cash flow yield is 3.2%. Return on equity is 55.3%. Price-to-book is 90.0x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does FIX compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 28.3 years, $100 invested in FIX would have grown to $8801, compared to $1094 for the S&P 500. That's 17.1% annualized vs 8.8% for the index. FIX has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does FIX pay a dividend?
Yes. Comfort Systems USA, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 22.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18