FIX

Comfort Systems USA, Inc. Industrials - Engineering & Construction Investor Relations →

NO
304.2% ABOVE
↑ Moving away Was 293.3% last week
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%+
Buy Threshold $486.69
14-Week RSI 82
Rel. Volume (14w) This week's trading vs. the 14-week average 1.3x
Buyers vs. Sellers (14w) Are up-weeks or down-weeks getting more volume? 1.02

Comfort Systems USA, Inc. (FIX) closed at $1967.41 as of 2026-06-19, trading 304.2% above its 200-week moving average of $486.69. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 293.3% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 82, FIX is in overbought territory.

Trading volume is running at 1.3x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.02 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.

Over the past 1464 weeks of data, FIX has crossed below its 200-week moving average 14 times. On average, these episodes lasted 32 weeks. Historically, investors who bought FIX at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +17.9%.

With a market cap of $69.2 billion, FIX is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 1.6%. Return on equity stands at 53.3%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 107.2x book value.

FIX passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.

Over the past 28.1 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in FIX would have grown to $10480, compared to $1074 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 18.0% vs 8.8% for the index — confirming FIX as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.

Free cash flow has been growing at a 59.7% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.

Business Health

Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.

Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)

Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy

Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)

ROIC Return on invested capital (%)

FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal

Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)

Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)

Growth of $100: FIX vs S&P 500

Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.

What Happens After FIX Crosses Below the Line?

Across 14 historical episodes, buying FIX when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +23.1% after 12 months (median +12.0%), compared to +17.9% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 57% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +25.7% vs +37.6% for the index.

Each line shows $100 invested at the moment FIX crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.

Bean Score Experimental

The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices FIX would reach each dislocation threshold.

Current Bean Score -0.20σ
Current FCF Yield 2.13%
Baseline Yield 2.77%
Historical σ 0.23pp

Dislocation Price Levels

Prices where FIX's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-23.

LevelσPriceSignal
Deep Value+2σ$1494.04Unusually cheap — potential buy zone
Value+1σ$1635.12Cheap vs. own history
Fair Value+0σ$1805.63Historical mean behavior
Expensive-1σ$2015.83Expensive vs. own history
Deep Expensive-2σ$2281.43Unusually expensive — potential trim zone

Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end

Data depth: 2 quarterly baselines, 22 price observations — Limited history (4+ quarters preferred for reliability)

Signal Accuracy Collecting Data

The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"

11 / 13 weeks minimum

Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.

Dislocation Scores Experimental

Each score measures deviation from FIX's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.

Yield Dislocation -1.79σ Dividend yield vs own 10-yr norm
Drawdown Score -3.96σ Distance from line vs own history
Sector-Relative -1.75σ Vs sector median this week
Buyback Acceleration -0.6pp YoY share change vs own 3-yr pace (− = accelerating)
Insider Intensity N/A TTM buys / market cap, percentile of buyers
FCF Yield vs History -3.6pp Vs own recent annual mean
Earnings Quality Stable Accrual gap trend (+2.4pp of revenue)

Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.

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Historical Touches

FIX has crossed below its 200-week MA 14 times with an average 1-year return of +17.9% after recovery.

Crossed BelowRecoveredWeeksMax Depth1-Year ReturnReturn Since Touch
Aug 1998Aug 199810.7%-23.9%+12415.5%
Aug 1998Sep 200326385.9%-26.3%+12659.3%
Jan 2008Jan 200813.9%+9.5%+24388.4%
Oct 2008Jul 20094237.4%+3.9%+21475.1%
Aug 2009Sep 200924.7%-0.3%+20578.1%
Sep 2009Dec 2009108.2%-2.2%+20559.7%
Jan 2010Mar 201053.8%+10.7%+19628.2%
May 2010Nov 20103016.3%+0.5%+20983.5%
May 2011Jan 20123625.0%-7.3%+20884.2%
Feb 2012Jul 20122216.0%+28.0%+21796.6%
Aug 2012Sep 201212.2%+48.6%+21182.8%
Oct 2012Nov 201275.6%+71.1%+21182.8%
Aug 2019Sep 201946.2%+39.0%+5207.5%
Mar 2020Jul 20202026.6%+98.7%+5266.3%
Average32+17.9%

Frequently Asked Questions

Is FIX below its 200-week moving average?

No. Comfort Systems USA, Inc. (FIX) is currently 304.2% above its 200-week moving average of $486.69. It would need to fall to $486.69 to cross below the line.

What is FIX's 200-week moving average price?

Comfort Systems USA, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $486.69 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.

What happens when FIX drops below its 200-week moving average?

FIX has crossed below its 200-week moving average 14 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +17.9%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 32 weeks on average.

Is FIX a good value right now?

Here's what our data says about FIX as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 82 (overbought). Free cash flow yield is 1.6%. Return on equity is 53.3%. Price-to-book is 107.2x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.

How does FIX compare to the S&P 500?

Over the past 28.1 years, $100 invested in FIX would have grown to $10480, compared to $1074 for the S&P 500. That's 18.0% annualized vs 8.8% for the index. FIX has outperformed the broader market over this period.

Does FIX pay a dividend?

Yes. Comfort Systems USA, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 14.00%.

Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Data as of week of 2026-06-19