FICO
Fair Isaac Corporation Technology - Analytics Investor Relations →
Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) closed at $1127.62 as of 2026-03-20, trading 9.6% below its 200-week moving average of $1246.81. This places FICO in the deep value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -9.0% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 15, FICO is in oversold territory.
Over the past 14 weeks, down-weeks have had more trading volume than up-weeks (0.60 buyers-vs-sellers ratio). That means when people are active, they're more often selling than buying. Sellers are still more in control than buyers.
Over the past 1969 weeks of data, FICO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 21 times. On average, these episodes lasted 16 weeks. Historically, investors who bought FICO at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +14.3%.
With a market cap of $26.7 billion, FICO is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 2.1%. The stock trades at -14.8x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 5.5% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in FICO would have grown to $51176, compared to $2683 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 20.6% vs 10.4% for the index — confirming FICO as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 13.7% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: FICO vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After FICO Crosses Below the Line?
Across 15 historical episodes, buying FICO when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +18.1% after 12 months (median +25.0%), compared to +1.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 60% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +47.3% vs -0.3% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment FICO crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
FICO has crossed below its 200-week MA 21 times with an average 1-year return of +14.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 1988 | Sep 1988 | 10 | 21.2% | -3.7% | +149875.8% |
| May 1989 | Jul 1989 | 10 | 25.1% | +1.7% | +171182.7% |
| Aug 1989 | Aug 1989 | 3 | 5.3% | -22.7% | +136926.2% |
| Sep 1989 | Oct 1989 | 6 | 8.5% | -25.4% | +130777.6% |
| Nov 1989 | Feb 1991 | 65 | 24.1% | -10.7% | +141684.1% |
| Jan 1998 | Feb 1998 | 4 | 5.8% | +62.2% | +13341.4% |
| Aug 1998 | Oct 1998 | 8 | 12.7% | -4.3% | +12566.4% |
| Apr 1999 | Jul 1999 | 13 | 11.0% | +11.4% | +11638.9% |
| Jul 1999 | Oct 1999 | 14 | 26.5% | +34.8% | +10765.2% |
| Apr 2000 | Apr 2000 | 2 | 3.3% | +58.0% | +10440.8% |
| Oct 2000 | Oct 2000 | 1 | 2.5% | +87.7% | +10174.2% |
| Jul 2004 | Sep 2004 | 10 | 7.5% | +46.4% | +4460.6% |
| Jul 2006 | Sep 2006 | 10 | 5.4% | +14.9% | +3193.6% |
| Apr 2007 | May 2007 | 4 | 3.0% | -25.9% | +3096.5% |
| Jun 2007 | Jun 2007 | 2 | 0.2% | -37.3% | +3025.5% |
| Aug 2007 | Aug 2007 | 3 | 1.2% | -33.6% | +3058.9% |
| Sep 2007 | Oct 2007 | 6 | 7.1% | -28.3% | +3068.5% |
| Nov 2007 | Jan 2011 | 165 | 69.3% | -61.6% | +3019.6% |
| Sep 2011 | Oct 2011 | 2 | 3.1% | +112.5% | +5141.0% |
| May 2022 | May 2022 | 2 | 6.2% | +109.2% | +222.3% |
| Mar 2026 | Ongoing | 2+ | 9.6% | Ongoing | -0.3% |
| Average | 16 | — | +14.3% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FICO below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-03-20, Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) is trading 9.6% below its 200-week moving average of $1246.81. The current price is $1127.62.
What is FICO's 200-week moving average price?
Fair Isaac Corporation's 200-week moving average is $1246.81 as of 2026-03-20. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when FICO drops below its 200-week moving average?
FICO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 21 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +14.3%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 16 weeks on average.
Is FICO a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about FICO as of 2026-03-20: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 15 (oversold). Free cash flow yield is 2.1%. Price-to-book is -14.8x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does FICO compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.2 years, $100 invested in FICO would have grown to $51176, compared to $2683 for the S&P 500. That's 20.6% annualized vs 10.4% for the index. FICO has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-03-20