FFIN
First Financial Bankshares Inc. Financial Services - Banking Investor Relations →
First Financial Bankshares Inc. (FFIN) closed at $32.81 as of 2026-09-18, trading 4.9% above its 200-week moving average of $31.28. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 5.3% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 47, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.6x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.13 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1667 weeks of data, FFIN has crossed below its 200-week moving average 22 times. On average, these episodes lasted 11 weeks. Historically, investors who bought FFIN at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +23.2%.
With a market cap of $4.7 billion, FFIN is a mid-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 14.4%. The stock trades at 2.3x book value.
Over the past 32 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in FFIN would have grown to $7234, compared to $2806 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 14.3% vs 11.0% for the index — confirming FFIN as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -2.5% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: FFIN vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After FFIN Crosses Below the Line?
Across 22 historical episodes, buying FFIN when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +18.2% after 12 months (median +19.0%), compared to +13.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 65% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +63.5% vs +23.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment FFIN crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices FFIN would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where FFIN's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-22.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $31.85 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $33.88 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $36.18 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $38.82 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $41.87 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-16 | $0.50 | $0.50 | -0.8% |
| 2026-04-16 | $0.47 | $0.50 | +5.8% |
| 2026-01-22 | $0.48 | $0.51 | +5.8% |
| 2025-10-23 | $0.47 | $0.36 | -23.4% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
the write-ups I read Simply Wall St · Visual company reports and write-ups. Free tier covers five reports a month. referral
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from FFIN's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
FFIN has crossed below its 200-week MA 22 times with an average 1-year return of +23.2% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1994 | Jun 1995 | 36 | 21.4% | +49.3% | +7134.2% |
| Dec 1999 | Aug 2000 | 36 | 17.8% | +8.6% | +2629.9% |
| Sep 2000 | Sep 2000 | 1 | 2.3% | +30.8% | +2509.8% |
| Oct 2000 | Oct 2000 | 3 | 3.1% | +26.0% | +2445.8% |
| Dec 2000 | Dec 2000 | 1 | 0.1% | +21.4% | +2414.0% |
| Jan 2001 | Jan 2001 | 1 | 0.0% | +24.9% | +2403.7% |
| Mar 2009 | Mar 2009 | 1 | 1.5% | +48.7% | +654.0% |
| Aug 2011 | Oct 2011 | 11 | 14.2% | +17.6% | +482.8% |
| Nov 2011 | Nov 2011 | 1 | 4.8% | +31.6% | +499.6% |
| May 2012 | Jun 2012 | 1 | 2.1% | +83.3% | +462.5% |
| Jan 2016 | Feb 2016 | 2 | 1.7% | +66.9% | +206.8% |
| Mar 2020 | Mar 2020 | 1 | 2.4% | +102.1% | +52.7% |
| Oct 2022 | Sep 2024 | 97 | 37.0% | -27.7% | -2.0% |
| Sep 2024 | Oct 2024 | 1 | 2.0% | -4.8% | -4.3% |
| Oct 2024 | Nov 2024 | 2 | 1.5% | -12.1% | -4.9% |
| Dec 2024 | Jan 2025 | 4 | 4.7% | -12.9% | -6.2% |
| Mar 2025 | Jun 2025 | 12 | 12.3% | -15.5% | -4.9% |
| Jun 2025 | Jun 2025 | 1 | 0.2% | -3.8% | -3.1% |
| Jul 2025 | Aug 2025 | 2 | 2.1% | +5.7% | -0.6% |
| Sep 2025 | Feb 2026 | 19 | 8.9% | N/A | -1.3% |
| Feb 2026 | Apr 2026 | 9 | 10.4% | N/A | +8.2% |
| May 2026 | May 2026 | 1 | 3.1% | N/A | +6.9% |
| Average | 11 | — | +23.2% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FFIN below its 200-week moving average?
No. First Financial Bankshares Inc. (FFIN) is currently 4.9% above its 200-week moving average of $31.28. It would need to fall to $31.28 to cross below the line.
What is FFIN's 200-week moving average price?
First Financial Bankshares Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $31.28 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when FFIN drops below its 200-week moving average?
FFIN has crossed below its 200-week moving average 22 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +23.2%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 11 weeks on average.
Is FFIN a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about FFIN as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 47. Return on equity is 14.4%. Price-to-book is 2.3x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does FFIN compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 32 years, $100 invested in FFIN would have grown to $7234, compared to $2806 for the S&P 500. That's 14.3% annualized vs 11.0% for the index. FFIN has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does FFIN pay a dividend?
Yes. First Financial Bankshares Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 268.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18