FDX
FedEx Corporation Industrials - Logistics Investor Relations →
FedEx Corporation (FDX) closed at $326.20 as of 2026-06-19, trading 62.6% above its 200-week moving average of $200.60. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 69.3% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 67, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 0.8x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.97 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2466 weeks of data, FDX has crossed below its 200-week moving average 38 times. On average, these episodes lasted 14 weeks. Historically, investors who bought FDX at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +27.2%.
With a market cap of $77.8 billion, FDX is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 1.1%. Return on equity stands at 15.9%, a solid level. The stock trades at 2.6x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 8.4% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in FDX would have grown to $3586, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 11.3% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming FDX as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -1% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: FDX vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After FDX Crosses Below the Line?
Across 27 historical episodes, buying FDX when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +23.5% after 12 months (median +29.0%), compared to +4.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 83% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +48.5% vs +18.2% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment FDX crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices FDX would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where FDX's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-06-23.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $254.22 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $290.26 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $338.22 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $405.17 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $505.15 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from FDX's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
FDX has crossed below its 200-week MA 38 times with an average 1-year return of +27.2% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1979 | Jul 1979 | 13 | 14.4% | +70.3% | +33221.3% |
| Apr 1984 | Apr 1984 | 4 | 7.9% | +18.3% | +6640.3% |
| May 1984 | May 1984 | 1 | 0.3% | +35.5% | +6530.3% |
| Nov 1984 | Nov 1984 | 1 | 2.9% | +59.7% | +6196.2% |
| Dec 1984 | Dec 1984 | 1 | 1.2% | +72.5% | +6029.9% |
| Jan 1985 | Jan 1985 | 1 | 4.4% | +91.9% | +6196.2% |
| Mar 1985 | Mar 1985 | 2 | 0.5% | +110.3% | +5894.1% |
| Nov 1987 | Jan 1989 | 64 | 29.1% | -6.2% | +3961.0% |
| Feb 1989 | Aug 1989 | 27 | 21.4% | -11.1% | +3731.2% |
| Sep 1989 | Mar 1990 | 27 | 17.1% | -29.4% | +3660.2% |
| May 1990 | Jan 1992 | 86 | 40.1% | -16.7% | +4338.3% |
| Jan 1992 | Feb 1992 | 2 | 3.3% | +29.4% | +4541.2% |
| Apr 1992 | Jun 1992 | 9 | 9.5% | +14.2% | +4691.8% |
| Jul 1992 | Oct 1992 | 15 | 18.6% | +27.4% | +4635.9% |
| Sep 1998 | Oct 1998 | 2 | 5.6% | +69.2% | +2153.0% |
| May 2000 | May 2000 | 1 | 1.2% | +17.5% | +1401.3% |
| Jun 2000 | Jun 2000 | 1 | 1.7% | +10.4% | +1395.8% |
| Apr 2001 | Apr 2001 | 1 | 2.2% | +45.1% | +1254.0% |
| May 2001 | May 2001 | 1 | 0.6% | +34.3% | +1221.6% |
| Jun 2001 | Jun 2001 | 2 | 3.6% | +47.7% | +1237.3% |
| Sep 2001 | Oct 2001 | 5 | 12.1% | +38.9% | +1373.5% |
| Nov 2007 | Nov 2007 | 1 | 3.3% | -34.6% | +432.2% |
| Dec 2007 | Mar 2010 | 118 | 62.2% | -35.8% | +419.4% |
| May 2010 | Sep 2010 | 20 | 16.2% | +15.7% | +489.9% |
| Aug 2011 | Oct 2011 | 9 | 14.1% | +23.8% | +565.5% |
| Nov 2011 | Nov 2011 | 1 | 2.2% | +16.0% | +538.9% |
| Jan 2016 | Jan 2016 | 2 | 2.1% | +48.6% | +273.9% |
| Feb 2016 | Feb 2016 | 2 | 1.4% | +49.7% | +269.0% |
| Dec 2018 | Apr 2019 | 17 | 17.2% | -8.6% | +150.6% |
| Apr 2019 | Aug 2020 | 68 | 43.9% | -32.0% | +149.8% |
| Apr 2022 | May 2022 | 4 | 3.6% | +17.8% | +118.9% |
| May 2022 | May 2022 | 1 | 2.4% | +16.7% | +119.6% |
| Sep 2022 | Jan 2023 | 20 | 26.8% | +61.4% | +171.1% |
| Mar 2023 | Mar 2023 | 1 | 0.8% | +25.7% | +115.5% |
| Mar 2025 | Jun 2025 | 15 | 10.7% | +59.3% | +79.7% |
| Jul 2025 | Aug 2025 | 5 | 5.2% | N/A | +81.4% |
| Sep 2025 | Sep 2025 | 1 | 0.7% | N/A | +80.6% |
| Oct 2025 | Oct 2025 | 1 | 1.5% | N/A | +81.9% |
| Average | 14 | — | +27.2% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FDX below its 200-week moving average?
No. FedEx Corporation (FDX) is currently 62.6% above its 200-week moving average of $200.60. It would need to fall to $200.60 to cross below the line.
What is FDX's 200-week moving average price?
FedEx Corporation's 200-week moving average is $200.60 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when FDX drops below its 200-week moving average?
FDX has crossed below its 200-week moving average 38 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +27.2%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 14 weeks on average.
Is FDX a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about FDX as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 67. Free cash flow yield is 1.1%. Return on equity is 15.9%. Price-to-book is 2.6x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does FDX compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in FDX would have grown to $3586, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 11.3% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. FDX has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19