FDX
FedEx Corporation Industrials - Logistics Investor Relations →
FedEx Corporation (FDX) closed at $369.23 as of 2026-02-02, trading 58.6% above its 200-week moving average of $232.80. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 39.0% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 91, FDX is in overbought territory.
Over the past 2447 weeks of data, FDX has crossed below its 200-week moving average 38 times. On average, these episodes lasted 14 weeks. Historically, investors who bought FDX at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +26.3%.
With a market cap of $87.1 billion, FDX is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 5.3%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 15.9%, a solid level. The stock trades at 3.1x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 8.4% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in FDX would have grown to $3258, compared to $2849 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 11.1% vs 10.6% for the index — confirming FDX as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -1% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Growth of $100: FDX vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After FDX Crosses Below the Line?
Across 27 historical episodes, buying FDX when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +21.2% after 12 months (median +25.0%), compared to +4.1% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 83% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +48.5% vs +18.2% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment FDX crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
FDX has crossed below its 200-week MA 38 times with an average 1-year return of +26.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1979 | Jul 1979 | 13 | 14.4% | +70.3% | +30169.6% |
| Apr 1984 | Apr 1984 | 4 | 7.9% | +18.3% | +6023.0% |
| May 1984 | May 1984 | 1 | 0.3% | +35.5% | +5923.0% |
| Nov 1984 | Nov 1984 | 1 | 2.9% | +59.7% | +5619.5% |
| Dec 1984 | Dec 1984 | 1 | 1.2% | +72.5% | +5468.5% |
| Jan 1985 | Jan 1985 | 1 | 4.4% | +91.9% | +5619.5% |
| Mar 1985 | Mar 1985 | 2 | 0.5% | +110.3% | +5345.2% |
| Nov 1987 | Jan 1989 | 64 | 29.1% | -6.2% | +3589.1% |
| Feb 1989 | Aug 1989 | 27 | 21.4% | -11.1% | +3380.3% |
| Sep 1989 | Mar 1990 | 27 | 17.1% | -29.4% | +3315.8% |
| May 1990 | Jan 1992 | 86 | 40.1% | -16.7% | +3931.8% |
| Jan 1992 | Feb 1992 | 2 | 3.3% | +29.4% | +4116.1% |
| Apr 1992 | Jun 1992 | 9 | 9.5% | +14.2% | +4252.9% |
| Jul 1992 | Oct 1992 | 15 | 18.6% | +27.4% | +4202.2% |
| Sep 1998 | Oct 1998 | 2 | 5.6% | +69.2% | +1946.7% |
| May 2000 | May 2000 | 1 | 1.2% | +17.5% | +1263.8% |
| Jun 2000 | Jun 2000 | 1 | 1.7% | +10.4% | +1258.8% |
| Apr 2001 | Apr 2001 | 1 | 2.2% | +45.1% | +1130.0% |
| May 2001 | May 2001 | 1 | 0.6% | +34.3% | +1100.6% |
| Jun 2001 | Jun 2001 | 2 | 3.6% | +47.7% | +1114.8% |
| Sep 2001 | Oct 2001 | 5 | 12.1% | +38.9% | +1238.6% |
| Nov 2007 | Nov 2007 | 1 | 3.3% | -34.6% | +383.5% |
| Dec 2007 | Mar 2010 | 118 | 62.2% | -35.8% | +371.8% |
| May 2010 | Sep 2010 | 20 | 16.2% | +15.7% | +435.8% |
| Aug 2011 | Oct 2011 | 9 | 14.1% | +23.8% | +504.6% |
| Nov 2011 | Nov 2011 | 1 | 2.2% | +16.0% | +480.4% |
| Jan 2016 | Jan 2016 | 2 | 2.1% | +48.6% | +239.6% |
| Feb 2016 | Feb 2016 | 2 | 1.4% | +49.7% | +235.2% |
| Dec 2018 | Apr 2019 | 17 | 17.2% | -8.6% | +127.7% |
| Apr 2019 | Aug 2020 | 68 | 43.9% | -32.0% | +126.9% |
| Apr 2022 | May 2022 | 4 | 3.6% | +17.8% | +98.8% |
| May 2022 | May 2022 | 1 | 2.4% | +16.7% | +99.4% |
| Sep 2022 | Jan 2023 | 20 | 26.8% | +61.4% | +146.2% |
| Mar 2023 | Mar 2023 | 1 | 0.8% | +25.7% | +95.8% |
| Mar 2025 | Jun 2025 | 15 | 10.7% | N/A | +63.2% |
| Jul 2025 | Aug 2025 | 5 | 5.2% | N/A | +64.8% |
| Sep 2025 | Sep 2025 | 1 | 0.7% | N/A | +64.0% |
| Oct 2025 | Oct 2025 | 1 | 1.5% | N/A | +65.2% |
| Average | 14 | — | +26.3% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02