FCNCA
First Citizens BancShares Inc. Financial Services - Banking Investor Relations →
First Citizens BancShares Inc. (FCNCA) closed at $2111.89 as of 2026-09-18, trading 25.9% above its 200-week moving average of $1677.83. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 30.0% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 50, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.4x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.91 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2034 weeks of data, FCNCA has crossed below its 200-week moving average 16 times. On average, these episodes lasted 28 weeks. Historically, investors who bought FCNCA at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +30.0%.
With a market cap of $23.8 billion, FCNCA is a large-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 10.7%. The stock trades at 1.2x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 16.3% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in FCNCA would have grown to $4602, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 12.0% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming FCNCA as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -10% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: FCNCA vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After FCNCA Crosses Below the Line?
Across 13 historical episodes, buying FCNCA when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +34.0% after 12 months (median +23.0%), compared to +17.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 62% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +43.8% vs +26.9% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment FCNCA crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices FCNCA would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where FCNCA's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-22.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $2073.90 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $2127.31 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $2183.53 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $2242.82 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $2305.41 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | $40.16 | $57.09 | +42.2% |
| 2026-04-23 | $39.23 | $44.86 | +14.3% |
| 2026-01-23 | $43.79 | $51.27 | +17.1% |
| 2025-10-23 | $41.49 | $44.62 | +7.5% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
the write-ups I read Simply Wall St · Visual company reports and write-ups. Free tier covers five reports a month. referral
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from FCNCA's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
FCNCA has crossed below its 200-week MA 16 times with an average 1-year return of +30.0% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 1987 | Mar 1988 | 26 | 28.1% | +2.4% | +8843.1% |
| May 1988 | Jun 1988 | 7 | 2.4% | -5.2% | +9086.6% |
| Oct 1988 | Aug 1991 | 146 | 36.0% | -13.2% | +9043.0% |
| Mar 1999 | Apr 1999 | 3 | 2.2% | -15.8% | +3188.2% |
| Jul 1999 | Jan 2001 | 75 | 31.6% | -22.8% | +3044.4% |
| Aug 2007 | Aug 2007 | 1 | 0.8% | -5.0% | +1367.7% |
| Oct 2007 | Dec 2009 | 112 | 54.3% | -3.7% | +1348.4% |
| Aug 2011 | Oct 2011 | 11 | 12.4% | +8.4% | +1390.3% |
| Nov 2011 | Nov 2011 | 1 | 1.2% | +7.1% | +1307.5% |
| May 2012 | Jun 2012 | 5 | 2.3% | +21.4% | +1258.3% |
| Jul 2012 | Sep 2012 | 7 | 2.2% | +27.5% | +1265.7% |
| Sep 2012 | Oct 2012 | 6 | 2.4% | +24.6% | +1253.3% |
| Nov 2012 | Jan 2013 | 9 | 6.9% | +34.2% | +1253.8% |
| Mar 2020 | Jul 2020 | 19 | 28.9% | +146.8% | +516.8% |
| Aug 2020 | Oct 2020 | 9 | 24.0% | +120.5% | +459.2% |
| Mar 2023 | Mar 2023 | 3 | 19.7% | +153.0% | +247.3% |
| Average | 28 | — | +30.0% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FCNCA below its 200-week moving average?
No. First Citizens BancShares Inc. (FCNCA) is currently 25.9% above its 200-week moving average of $1677.83. It would need to fall to $1677.83 to cross below the line.
What is FCNCA's 200-week moving average price?
First Citizens BancShares Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $1677.83 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when FCNCA drops below its 200-week moving average?
FCNCA has crossed below its 200-week moving average 16 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +30.0%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 28 weeks on average.
Is FCNCA a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about FCNCA as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 50. Return on equity is 10.7%. Price-to-book is 1.2x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does FCNCA compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.8 years, $100 invested in FCNCA would have grown to $4602, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That's 12.0% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. FCNCA has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does FCNCA pay a dividend?
Yes. First Citizens BancShares Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 40.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18