FCEL
FuelCell Energy Inc. Industrials - Fuel Cells Investor Relations →
FuelCell Energy Inc. (FCEL) closed at $24.04 as of 2026-06-19, trading 31.5% below its 200-week moving average of $35.09. This places FCEL in the extreme value zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -52.4% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 76, FCEL is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.6x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.37 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1725 weeks of data, FCEL has crossed below its 200-week moving average 29 times. On average, these episodes lasted 45 weeks. Historically, investors who bought FCEL at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +10.6%.
With a market cap of $1625 million, FCEL is a small-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at -30.7%. The stock trades at 2.1x book value.
Share count has increased 240.8% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 33.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in FCEL would have grown to $0, compared to $2995 for the S&P 500. FCEL has returned -15.7% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: FCEL vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After FCEL Crosses Below the Line?
Across 29 historical episodes, buying FCEL when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +13.4% after 12 months (median -19.0%), compared to +9.6% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 34% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +145.8% vs +31.2% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment FCEL crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. FCEL currently has negative free cash flow, so price-based dislocation levels are not available. The score still tracks yield deviation from baseline.
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from FCEL's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
FCEL has crossed below its 200-week MA 29 times with an average 1-year return of +10.6% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1993 | Aug 1993 | 13 | 14.2% | +12.5% | -99.7% |
| Dec 1993 | Jan 1994 | 4 | 13.6% | -7.6% | -99.7% |
| Feb 1994 | Mar 1994 | 3 | 8.4% | +7.5% | -99.7% |
| May 1994 | May 1994 | 3 | 4.1% | -8.1% | -99.7% |
| Jun 1994 | Aug 1994 | 8 | 4.1% | -18.6% | -99.7% |
| Aug 1994 | Aug 1994 | 1 | 6.3% | -7.3% | -99.7% |
| Oct 1994 | Aug 1995 | 47 | 25.0% | -7.0% | -99.7% |
| Sep 1995 | Oct 1995 | 4 | 7.9% | +34.6% | -99.6% |
| Nov 1995 | Nov 1995 | 1 | 0.7% | +14.3% | -99.7% |
| Mar 1996 | Mar 1996 | 1 | 3.7% | +17.1% | -99.7% |
| Nov 1996 | Dec 1996 | 3 | 7.9% | +40.0% | -99.7% |
| Dec 1996 | Dec 1996 | 1 | 6.3% | +46.4% | -99.7% |
| Mar 1997 | Sep 1997 | 24 | 23.7% | +142.4% | -99.7% |
| Aug 1998 | Oct 1998 | 8 | 22.9% | +123.9% | -99.7% |
| Nov 1998 | Nov 1998 | 2 | 0.2% | +174.5% | -99.7% |
| Jan 1999 | Jun 1999 | 24 | 36.3% | +275.9% | -99.7% |
| Sep 2001 | Sep 2001 | 1 | 0.2% | -44.4% | -100.0% |
| May 2002 | Apr 2004 | 101 | 67.6% | -51.0% | -100.0% |
| Apr 2004 | Aug 2005 | 70 | 49.8% | -51.7% | -100.0% |
| Sep 2005 | Jan 2006 | 19 | 20.5% | -18.2% | -99.9% |
| Feb 2006 | Feb 2006 | 1 | 4.2% | -24.9% | -99.9% |
| Jun 2006 | Dec 2007 | 78 | 40.7% | -25.5% | -99.9% |
| Jan 2008 | May 2008 | 19 | 33.8% | -52.3% | -99.9% |
| Jun 2008 | Dec 2013 | 286 | 80.3% | -42.7% | -99.9% |
| Jan 2015 | Dec 2020 | 311 | 99.5% | -64.1% | -99.6% |
| Apr 2021 | May 2021 | 4 | 20.0% | -58.0% | -91.7% |
| Jun 2021 | Nov 2021 | 20 | 34.6% | -60.7% | -90.9% |
| Nov 2021 | Mar 2022 | 14 | 48.3% | -49.8% | -89.0% |
| Mar 2022 | Ongoing | 222+ | 95.4% | Ongoing | -87.1% |
| Average | 45 | — | +10.6% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FCEL below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-06-19, FuelCell Energy Inc. (FCEL) is trading 31.5% below its 200-week moving average of $35.09. The current price is $24.04.
What is FCEL's 200-week moving average price?
FuelCell Energy Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $35.09 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when FCEL drops below its 200-week moving average?
FCEL has crossed below its 200-week moving average 29 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +10.6%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 45 weeks on average.
Is FCEL a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about FCEL as of 2026-06-19: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 76 (overbought). Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is -30.7%. Price-to-book is 2.1x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does FCEL compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.2 years, $100 invested in FCEL would have grown to $0, compared to $2995 for the S&P 500. That's -15.7% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. FCEL has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19