FANG
Diamondback Energy Inc. Energy - Oil & Gas E&P Investor Relations →
Diamondback Energy Inc. (FANG) closed at $192.42 as of 2026-09-18, trading 24.6% above its 200-week moving average of $154.38. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 33.0% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 50, indicating neutral momentum.
A big spike in selling this week — 3.4x the usual volume, and the price dropped. Sometimes this kind of heavy selling marks the end of a decline. The idea is that the last reluctant holders have finally sold, leaving fewer sellers left to push the price lower.
Over the past 679 weeks of data, FANG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 10 times. On average, these episodes lasted 12 weeks. Historically, investors who bought FANG at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +1.3%.
With a market cap of $53.9 billion, FANG is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 9.3%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 3.5%. The stock trades at 1.4x book value.
Share count has increased 58.2% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 13.1 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in FANG would have grown to $550, compared to $564 for the S&P 500. FANG has returned 13.9% annualized vs 14.1% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -100% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: FANG vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After FANG Crosses Below the Line?
Across 10 historical episodes, buying FANG when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -1.7% after 12 months (median -5.0%), compared to +12.9% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 44% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was -1.3% vs +43.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment FANG crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices FANG would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where FANG's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-11-02.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $158.98 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $169.99 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $182.64 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $197.33 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $214.58 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 | $5.98 | $6.48 | +8.3% |
| 2026-05-04 | $3.75 | $4.23 | +12.8% |
| 2026-02-23 | $2.00 | $1.74 | -13.2% |
| 2025-11-03 | $2.94 | $3.08 | +4.6% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from FANG's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
FANG has crossed below its 200-week MA 10 times with an average 1-year return of +1.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2018 | Dec 2018 | 3 | 7.9% | -7.5% | +172.1% |
| Feb 2019 | Feb 2019 | 1 | 0.8% | -22.6% | +161.2% |
| Mar 2019 | Mar 2019 | 1 | 2.3% | -48.5% | +163.9% |
| May 2019 | Jun 2019 | 3 | 2.5% | -55.7% | +156.5% |
| Jul 2019 | May 2021 | 96 | 81.6% | -58.3% | +158.0% |
| Jul 2021 | Sep 2021 | 9 | 17.9% | +44.7% | +205.2% |
| Mar 2025 | Apr 2025 | 2 | 8.6% | +61.4% | +62.0% |
| May 2025 | Jun 2025 | 2 | 1.5% | +51.5% | +46.1% |
| Sep 2025 | Sep 2025 | 3 | 2.7% | +47.1% | +42.1% |
| Oct 2025 | Oct 2025 | 2 | 2.1% | N/A | +40.9% |
| Average | 12 | — | +1.3% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FANG below its 200-week moving average?
No. Diamondback Energy Inc. (FANG) is currently 24.6% above its 200-week moving average of $154.38. It would need to fall to $154.38 to cross below the line.
What is FANG's 200-week moving average price?
Diamondback Energy Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $154.38 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when FANG drops below its 200-week moving average?
FANG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 10 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +1.3%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 12 weeks on average.
Is FANG a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about FANG as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 50. Free cash flow yield is 9.3%. Return on equity is 3.5%. Price-to-book is 1.4x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does FANG compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 13.1 years, $100 invested in FANG would have grown to $550, compared to $564 for the S&P 500. That's 13.9% annualized vs 14.1% for the index. FANG has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does FANG pay a dividend?
Yes. Diamondback Energy Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 223.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18