F
Ford Motor Company Consumer Discretionary - Automobiles Investor Relations →
Ford Motor Company (F) closed at $14.06 as of 2026-06-19, trading 31.7% above its 200-week moving average of $10.68. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 39.1% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 61, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.1x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.16 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2772 weeks of data, F has crossed below its 200-week moving average 24 times. On average, these episodes lasted 45 weeks. Historically, investors who bought F at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +1.0%.
With a market cap of $56.0 billion, F is a large-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at -14.8%. The stock trades at 1.5x book value.
Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in F would have grown to $556, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. F has returned 5.3% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: F vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After F Crosses Below the Line?
Across 21 historical episodes, buying F when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +3.3% after 12 months (median -7.0%), compared to +10.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 40% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +3.8% vs +28.8% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment F crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices F would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where F's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-29.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $9.39 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $10.50 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $11.93 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $13.79 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $16.34 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from F's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
F has crossed below its 200-week MA 24 times with an average 1-year return of +1.0% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1973 | Dec 1975 | 137 | 42.6% | -6.0% | +7330.5% |
| Oct 1979 | Aug 1982 | 148 | 43.7% | -23.7% | +5752.9% |
| Jul 1990 | Feb 1992 | 80 | 37.4% | -13.1% | +633.2% |
| Mar 1992 | Mar 1992 | 1 | 0.4% | +42.4% | +635.3% |
| Oct 1992 | Oct 1992 | 1 | 2.3% | +65.0% | +642.6% |
| Dec 2000 | Dec 2000 | 2 | 2.9% | -25.4% | +53.8% |
| Jun 2001 | Jul 2001 | 5 | 2.6% | -28.6% | +41.2% |
| Jul 2001 | Jun 2004 | 149 | 65.8% | -48.4% | +35.8% |
| Jun 2004 | Nov 2004 | 21 | 10.4% | -28.8% | +104.2% |
| Jan 2005 | Jul 2009 | 235 | 81.4% | -37.3% | +129.5% |
| Jun 2012 | Sep 2012 | 11 | 10.8% | +65.4% | +189.4% |
| Sep 2012 | Oct 2012 | 5 | 5.0% | +77.4% | +179.9% |
| Nov 2012 | Nov 2012 | 1 | 0.9% | +66.9% | +161.6% |
| Jan 2016 | Feb 2016 | 8 | 12.8% | +8.9% | +98.6% |
| Mar 2016 | Apr 2016 | 4 | 5.5% | -6.4% | +84.5% |
| May 2016 | Jul 2016 | 9 | 6.6% | -12.9% | +80.3% |
| Jul 2016 | Nov 2017 | 70 | 16.5% | -5.8% | +88.2% |
| Jan 2018 | May 2018 | 19 | 13.4% | -23.4% | +83.7% |
| Jun 2018 | Apr 2019 | 44 | 28.3% | -8.5% | +82.3% |
| May 2019 | Jun 2019 | 5 | 6.7% | -39.7% | +102.4% |
| Jul 2019 | Nov 2020 | 69 | 54.4% | -24.6% | +107.9% |
| Oct 2023 | Dec 2023 | 6 | 10.1% | +19.2% | +68.7% |
| Jul 2024 | Jun 2025 | 49 | 21.0% | +10.6% | +42.2% |
| Jul 2025 | Aug 2025 | 1 | 2.7% | N/A | +36.4% |
| Average | 45 | — | +1.0% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is F below its 200-week moving average?
No. Ford Motor Company (F) is currently 31.7% above its 200-week moving average of $10.68. It would need to fall to $10.68 to cross below the line.
What is F's 200-week moving average price?
Ford Motor Company's 200-week moving average is $10.68 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when F drops below its 200-week moving average?
F has crossed below its 200-week moving average 24 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +1.0%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 45 weeks on average.
Is F a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about F as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 61. Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is -14.8%. Price-to-book is 1.5x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does F compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in F would have grown to $556, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 5.3% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. F has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does F pay a dividend?
Yes. Ford Motor Company currently pays a dividend yield of 416.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19