F
Ford Motor Company Consumer Discretionary - Automobiles Investor Relations →
Ford Motor Company (F) closed at $13.21 as of 2026-09-18, trading 22.0% above its 200-week moving average of $10.82. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 29.2% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 39, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.6x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.04 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2785 weeks of data, F has crossed below its 200-week moving average 24 times. On average, these episodes lasted 45 weeks. Historically, investors who bought F at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +2.7%.
With a market cap of $52.7 billion, F is a large-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at -18.3%. The stock trades at 1.5x book value.
Over the past 33.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in F would have grown to $524, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. F has returned 5.0% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 3 open-market purchases totaling $2,182,519.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: F vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After F Crosses Below the Line?
Across 21 historical episodes, buying F when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +5.5% after 12 months (median -7.0%), compared to +11.6% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 43% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +7.7% vs +29.6% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment F crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices F would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where F's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-22.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $11.87 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $13.49 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $15.63 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $18.58 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $22.89 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 | $0.35 | $0.42 | +21.3% |
| 2026-04-29 | $0.19 | $0.66 | +256.6% |
| 2026-02-10 | $0.19 | $0.13 | -32.9% |
| 2025-10-23 | $0.36 | $0.45 | +25.4% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from F's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
F has crossed below its 200-week MA 24 times with an average 1-year return of +2.7% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1973 | Dec 1975 | 137 | 41.2% | -6.0% | +6956.9% |
| Oct 1979 | Aug 1982 | 148 | 42.8% | -23.7% | +5458.6% |
| Jul 1990 | Feb 1992 | 80 | 37.5% | -12.1% | +596.3% |
| Mar 1992 | Mar 1992 | 1 | 0.5% | +42.4% | +598.4% |
| Oct 1992 | Oct 1992 | 1 | 2.4% | +65.0% | +605.3% |
| Dec 2000 | Dec 2000 | 2 | 2.9% | -25.4% | +46.0% |
| May 2001 | Jul 2001 | 6 | 2.6% | -25.7% | +30.9% |
| Aug 2001 | Jun 2004 | 148 | 65.8% | -50.7% | +28.4% |
| Jun 2004 | Nov 2004 | 21 | 10.4% | -28.8% | +93.9% |
| Jan 2005 | Jul 2009 | 235 | 81.4% | -37.3% | +118.0% |
| Jun 2012 | Sep 2012 | 11 | 10.8% | +65.4% | +174.8% |
| Sep 2012 | Oct 2012 | 5 | 5.0% | +77.4% | +165.9% |
| Nov 2012 | Nov 2012 | 1 | 1.0% | +66.9% | +148.4% |
| Jan 2016 | Feb 2016 | 8 | 12.8% | +8.9% | +88.6% |
| Mar 2016 | Apr 2016 | 4 | 5.6% | -6.4% | +75.2% |
| May 2016 | Jul 2016 | 9 | 6.7% | -12.9% | +71.2% |
| Jul 2016 | Nov 2017 | 70 | 16.6% | -6.8% | +76.8% |
| Jan 2018 | May 2018 | 19 | 13.4% | -23.4% | +74.5% |
| Jun 2018 | Apr 2019 | 44 | 28.4% | -8.5% | +73.1% |
| May 2019 | Jun 2019 | 5 | 6.8% | -39.7% | +92.3% |
| Jul 2019 | Nov 2020 | 70 | 54.5% | -25.7% | +94.6% |
| Oct 2023 | Dec 2023 | 6 | 10.1% | +19.2% | +60.2% |
| Jul 2024 | Jun 2025 | 49 | 21.1% | +10.6% | +35.0% |
| Jul 2025 | Aug 2025 | 1 | 2.8% | +42.4% | +29.5% |
| Average | 45 | — | +2.7% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is F below its 200-week moving average?
No. Ford Motor Company (F) is currently 22.0% above its 200-week moving average of $10.82. It would need to fall to $10.82 to cross below the line.
What is F's 200-week moving average price?
Ford Motor Company's 200-week moving average is $10.82 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when F drops below its 200-week moving average?
F has crossed below its 200-week moving average 24 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +2.7%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 45 weeks on average.
Is F a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about F as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 39. Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is -18.3%. Price-to-book is 1.5x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does F compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.8 years, $100 invested in F would have grown to $524, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That's 5.0% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. F has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does F pay a dividend?
Yes. Ford Motor Company currently pays a dividend yield of 441.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18