EXR
Extra Space Storage Inc. Real Estate - REIT - Industrial Investor Relations →
Extra Space Storage Inc. (EXR) closed at $136.71 as of 2026-09-18, trading 1.6% above its 200-week moving average of $134.49. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 1.2% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 33, indicating neutral momentum.
A big jump in activity this week — 2.0x the usual volume, and the price went up. Significantly more people than usual decided to buy. This kind of surge, especially on a stock already below its 200-week average, can be an early sign that sentiment is shifting.
Over the past 1104 weeks of data, EXR has crossed below its 200-week moving average 18 times. On average, these episodes lasted 9 weeks. Historically, investors who bought EXR at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +11.4%.
With a market cap of $30.2 billion, EXR is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 5.0%. Return on equity stands at 7.0%. The stock trades at 2.2x book value.
Share count has increased 57.7% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 21.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in EXR would have grown to $2007, compared to $907 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 15.2% vs 10.9% for the index — confirming EXR as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 14.6% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: EXR vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After EXR Crosses Below the Line?
Across 18 historical episodes, buying EXR when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +6.0% after 12 months (median +9.0%), compared to +10.1% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 64% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +26.0% vs +25.8% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment EXR crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices EXR would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where EXR's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-28.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $131.90 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $136.72 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $141.90 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $147.48 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $153.52 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 | $1.15 | $1.25 | +8.6% |
| 2026-04-28 | $1.10 | $1.14 | +3.4% |
| 2026-02-19 | $1.15 | $1.36 | +17.9% |
| 2025-10-29 | $1.19 | $0.78 | -34.2% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from EXR's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
EXR has crossed below its 200-week MA 18 times with an average 1-year return of +11.4% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2007 | Aug 2007 | 2 | 4.7% | +17.5% | +1992.5% |
| Nov 2007 | Jan 2008 | 11 | 6.8% | -16.5% | +1891.1% |
| Feb 2008 | Feb 2008 | 2 | 0.5% | -41.2% | +1892.5% |
| Oct 2008 | Mar 2010 | 73 | 61.6% | -11.5% | +2010.0% |
| Mar 2020 | Mar 2020 | 1 | 6.3% | +63.9% | +120.5% |
| May 2020 | May 2020 | 1 | 4.5% | +82.8% | +114.8% |
| Jul 2023 | Dec 2023 | 19 | 24.9% | +36.2% | +24.6% |
| Feb 2024 | Feb 2024 | 1 | 1.2% | +16.0% | +10.1% |
| Mar 2024 | Mar 2024 | 2 | 1.4% | +8.4% | +9.4% |
| Apr 2024 | May 2024 | 4 | 7.2% | -0.9% | +8.4% |
| May 2024 | May 2024 | 1 | 1.2% | +6.5% | +6.9% |
| Dec 2024 | Jan 2025 | 5 | 2.5% | -7.4% | +0.7% |
| Mar 2025 | Jun 2025 | 16 | 11.0% | +0.9% | +0.9% |
| Jul 2025 | Oct 2025 | 13 | 8.2% | +4.7% | -2.3% |
| Oct 2025 | Jan 2026 | 11 | 10.0% | N/A | +7.2% |
| Jan 2026 | Feb 2026 | 2 | 2.1% | N/A | +2.5% |
| Mar 2026 | Apr 2026 | 3 | 6.9% | N/A | +7.3% |
| May 2026 | May 2026 | 1 | 1.0% | N/A | +2.1% |
| Average | 9 | — | +11.4% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is EXR below its 200-week moving average?
No. Extra Space Storage Inc. (EXR) is currently 1.6% above its 200-week moving average of $134.49. It would need to fall to $134.49 to cross below the line.
What is EXR's 200-week moving average price?
Extra Space Storage Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $134.49 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when EXR drops below its 200-week moving average?
EXR has crossed below its 200-week moving average 18 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +11.4%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 9 weeks on average.
Is EXR a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about EXR as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 33. Free cash flow yield is 5.0%. Return on equity is 7.0%. Price-to-book is 2.2x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does EXR compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 21.2 years, $100 invested in EXR would have grown to $2007, compared to $907 for the S&P 500. That's 15.2% annualized vs 10.9% for the index. EXR has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does EXR pay a dividend?
Yes. Extra Space Storage Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 474.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18