EXPO
Exponent, Inc. Industrials - Engineering & Construction Investor Relations →
Exponent, Inc. (EXPO) closed at $66.85 as of 2026-07-31, trading 18.9% below its 200-week moving average of $82.42. This places EXPO in the extreme value zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -25.5% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 52, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.7x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.06 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1828 weeks of data, EXPO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 17 times. On average, these episodes lasted 27 weeks. Historically, investors who bought EXPO at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +25.9%.
With a market cap of $3.2 billion, EXPO is a mid-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 31.2%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 11.3x book value.
Over the past 33.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in EXPO would have grown to $7612, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 13.8% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming EXPO as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 14.4% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: EXPO vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After EXPO Crosses Below the Line?
Across 17 historical episodes, buying EXPO when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +25.8% after 12 months (median +30.0%), compared to +24.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 88% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +25.9% vs +43.9% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment EXPO crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices EXPO would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where EXPO's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $54.65 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $58.73 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $63.46 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $69.02 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $75.65 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from EXPO's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
EXPO has crossed below its 200-week MA 17 times with an average 1-year return of +25.9% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 1991 | Jul 1995 | 208 | 61.3% | -57.8% | +3824.8% |
| Aug 1995 | Dec 1995 | 19 | 25.2% | N/A | +9561.0% |
| Jan 1996 | Apr 1996 | 15 | 14.5% | +14.0% | +11583.1% |
| May 1996 | Jun 1996 | 1 | 3.6% | +8.7% | +10821.1% |
| Sep 1996 | Sep 1996 | 1 | 0.2% | +27.3% | +10560.4% |
| Oct 1996 | Dec 1996 | 8 | 2.0% | +64.8% | +10791.5% |
| Feb 1997 | Apr 1997 | 10 | 26.2% | +79.5% | +11317.5% |
| Jun 1997 | Jun 1997 | 1 | 3.0% | +69.8% | +11583.1% |
| Aug 1998 | Jun 1999 | 43 | 37.5% | +30.1% | +12005.3% |
| Aug 1999 | Dec 1999 | 17 | 21.3% | +27.8% | +9203.2% |
| Dec 1999 | Jan 2000 | 5 | 9.0% | +41.7% | +9654.8% |
| Oct 2000 | Oct 2000 | 1 | 0.8% | +30.9% | +8561.6% |
| Feb 2009 | Feb 2009 | 1 | 6.6% | +30.5% | +1445.9% |
| May 2023 | May 2023 | 1 | 1.7% | +10.3% | -19.2% |
| Jul 2023 | Aug 2023 | 4 | 2.8% | +19.9% | -21.6% |
| Sep 2023 | Apr 2024 | 33 | 19.7% | +17.6% | -21.2% |
| Dec 2024 | Ongoing | 86+ | 36.4% | Ongoing | -26.4% |
| Average | 27 | — | +25.9% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is EXPO below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-07-31, Exponent, Inc. (EXPO) is trading 18.9% below its 200-week moving average of $82.42. The current price is $66.85.
What is EXPO's 200-week moving average price?
Exponent, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $82.42 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when EXPO drops below its 200-week moving average?
EXPO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 17 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +25.9%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 27 weeks on average.
Is EXPO a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about EXPO as of 2026-07-31: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 52. Return on equity is 31.2%. Price-to-book is 11.3x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does EXPO compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.6 years, $100 invested in EXPO would have grown to $7612, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. That's 13.8% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. EXPO has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does EXPO pay a dividend?
Yes. Exponent, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 184.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31