EXPO
Exponent, Inc. Industrials - Engineering & Construction Investor Relations →
Exponent, Inc. (EXPO) closed at $56.89 as of 2026-06-19, trading 31.6% below its 200-week moving average of $83.14. This places EXPO in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -31.5% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 34, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.6x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.88 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1822 weeks of data, EXPO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 17 times. On average, these episodes lasted 26 weeks. Historically, investors who bought EXPO at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +25.9%.
With a market cap of $2.8 billion, EXPO is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 2.7%. Return on equity stands at 27.9%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 8.2x book value.
EXPO passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in EXPO would have grown to $6478, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 13.3% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming EXPO as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 14.4% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: EXPO vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After EXPO Crosses Below the Line?
Across 17 historical episodes, buying EXPO when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +25.8% after 12 months (median +30.0%), compared to +24.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 88% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +25.9% vs +43.9% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment EXPO crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices EXPO would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where EXPO's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-30.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $55.54 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $59.63 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $64.36 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $69.91 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $76.50 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from EXPO's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
EXPO has crossed below its 200-week MA 17 times with an average 1-year return of +25.9% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 1991 | Jul 1995 | 208 | 61.3% | -57.8% | +3240.0% |
| Aug 1995 | Dec 1995 | 19 | 25.2% | N/A | +8121.6% |
| Jan 1996 | Apr 1996 | 15 | 14.5% | +14.0% | +9842.4% |
| May 1996 | Jun 1996 | 1 | 3.6% | +8.7% | +9194.0% |
| Sep 1996 | Sep 1996 | 1 | 0.2% | +27.3% | +8972.1% |
| Oct 1996 | Dec 1996 | 8 | 2.0% | +64.8% | +9168.8% |
| Feb 1997 | Apr 1997 | 10 | 26.2% | +79.5% | +9616.4% |
| Jun 1997 | Jun 1997 | 1 | 3.0% | +69.8% | +9842.4% |
| Aug 1998 | Jun 1999 | 43 | 37.5% | +30.1% | +10201.8% |
| Aug 1999 | Dec 1999 | 17 | 21.3% | +27.8% | +7817.1% |
| Dec 1999 | Jan 2000 | 5 | 9.0% | +41.7% | +8201.4% |
| Oct 2000 | Oct 2000 | 1 | 0.8% | +30.9% | +7271.1% |
| Feb 2009 | Feb 2009 | 1 | 6.6% | +30.5% | +1215.6% |
| May 2023 | May 2023 | 1 | 1.6% | +10.3% | -31.2% |
| Jul 2023 | Aug 2023 | 4 | 2.8% | +19.9% | -33.3% |
| Sep 2023 | Apr 2024 | 33 | 19.7% | +17.6% | -32.7% |
| Dec 2024 | Ongoing | 80+ | 36.3% | Ongoing | -37.4% |
| Average | 26 | — | +25.9% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is EXPO below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-06-19, Exponent, Inc. (EXPO) is trading 31.6% below its 200-week moving average of $83.14. The current price is $56.89.
What is EXPO's 200-week moving average price?
Exponent, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $83.14 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when EXPO drops below its 200-week moving average?
EXPO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 17 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +25.9%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 26 weeks on average.
Is EXPO a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about EXPO as of 2026-06-19: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 34. Free cash flow yield is 2.7%. Return on equity is 27.9%. Price-to-book is 8.2x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does EXPO compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in EXPO would have grown to $6478, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 13.3% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. EXPO has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does EXPO pay a dividend?
Yes. Exponent, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 213.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19