EXPI
eXp World Holdings, Inc. Real Estate - Real Estate Services Investor Relations →
eXp World Holdings, Inc. (EXPI) closed at $4.69 as of 2026-06-19, trading 58.7% below its 200-week moving average of $11.36. This places EXPI in the extreme value zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -59.4% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 39, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.4x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.15 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 609 weeks of data, EXPI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 5 times. On average, these episodes lasted 49 weeks. Historically, investors who bought EXPI at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +502.3%.
With a market cap of $1073 million, EXPI is a small-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 10.8%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at -10.1%. The stock trades at 4.5x book value.
Share count has increased 5.4% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 11.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in EXPI would have grown to $4239, compared to $440 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 37.6% vs 13.4% for the index — confirming EXPI as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -18.3% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: EXPI vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After EXPI Crosses Below the Line?
Across 5 historical episodes, buying EXPI when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +373.4% after 12 months (median +204.0%), compared to +26.4% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 60% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +485.6% vs +40.8% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment EXPI crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices EXPI would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where EXPI's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $3.89 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $4.43 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $5.15 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $6.15 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $7.63 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from EXPI's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
EXPI has crossed below its 200-week MA 5 times with an average 1-year return of +502.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2014 | Mar 2015 | 22 | 57.9% | +192.0% | +3969.1% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 6 | 15.3% | +1311.5% | +38.8% |
| May 2020 | May 2020 | 1 | 2.3% | +534.8% | +21.4% |
| Apr 2022 | Jul 2023 | 66 | 44.8% | -29.0% | -70.0% |
| Aug 2023 | Ongoing | 149+ | 59.5% | Ongoing | -74.3% |
| Average | 49 | — | +502.3% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is EXPI below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-06-19, eXp World Holdings, Inc. (EXPI) is trading 58.7% below its 200-week moving average of $11.36. The current price is $4.69.
What is EXPI's 200-week moving average price?
eXp World Holdings, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $11.36 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when EXPI drops below its 200-week moving average?
EXPI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 5 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +502.3%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 49 weeks on average.
Is EXPI a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about EXPI as of 2026-06-19: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 39. Free cash flow yield is 10.8%. Return on equity is -10.1%. Price-to-book is 4.5x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does EXPI compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 11.8 years, $100 invested in EXPI would have grown to $4239, compared to $440 for the S&P 500. That's 37.6% annualized vs 13.4% for the index. EXPI has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does EXPI pay a dividend?
Yes. eXp World Holdings, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 3.02%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19