EXPE
Expedia Group Inc. Consumer Discretionary - Travel Services Investor Relations →
Expedia Group Inc. (EXPE) closed at $294.74 as of 2026-07-31, trading 84.1% above its 200-week moving average of $160.13. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 63.4% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 65, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.2x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.91 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1049 weeks of data, EXPE has crossed below its 200-week moving average 17 times. On average, these episodes lasted 16 weeks. Historically, investors who bought EXPE at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +8.1%.
With a market cap of $35.4 billion, EXPE is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 9.8%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 71.5%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 61.4x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 20.1% over the past three years.
Over the past 20.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in EXPE would have grown to $1511, compared to $848 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 14.4% vs 11.2% for the index — confirming EXPE as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 3.8% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: EXPE vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After EXPE Crosses Below the Line?
Across 17 historical episodes, buying EXPE when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +12.5% after 12 months (median +11.0%), compared to +7.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 59% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +35.9% vs +29.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment EXPE crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices EXPE would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where EXPE's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-08-06.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $180.02 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $197.51 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $218.77 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $245.16 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $278.78 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from EXPE's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
EXPE has crossed below its 200-week MA 17 times with an average 1-year return of +8.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2006 | Dec 2006 | 23 | 34.0% | +95.4% | +1411.2% |
| Mar 2008 | Mar 2008 | 4 | 7.3% | -69.3% | +976.1% |
| May 2008 | Jul 2009 | 62 | 69.8% | -30.9% | +945.8% |
| May 2010 | Jul 2010 | 7 | 11.3% | +38.5% | +1015.5% |
| Feb 2011 | Mar 2011 | 6 | 6.4% | +8.2% | +950.3% |
| Dec 2011 | Jan 2012 | 4 | 7.0% | +102.0% | +983.7% |
| Feb 2018 | Mar 2018 | 4 | 6.1% | +27.1% | +194.3% |
| Mar 2018 | May 2018 | 7 | 4.6% | +15.8% | +187.7% |
| Nov 2018 | Nov 2018 | 2 | 3.8% | -17.5% | +159.0% |
| Dec 2018 | Jan 2019 | 6 | 6.9% | +1.1% | +175.0% |
| Mar 2019 | Apr 2019 | 1 | 0.7% | -48.9% | +153.9% |
| May 2019 | Jun 2019 | 4 | 4.3% | -40.9% | +154.4% |
| Nov 2019 | Nov 2020 | 53 | 59.4% | +2.7% | +196.7% |
| May 2022 | May 2022 | 1 | 4.8% | -22.4% | +139.5% |
| Jun 2022 | Nov 2023 | 75 | 32.3% | -4.1% | +159.1% |
| Apr 2024 | Aug 2024 | 18 | 15.7% | +17.4% | +131.3% |
| Sep 2024 | Sep 2024 | 1 | 0.9% | +63.6% | +125.6% |
| Average | 16 | — | +8.1% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is EXPE below its 200-week moving average?
No. Expedia Group Inc. (EXPE) is currently 84.1% above its 200-week moving average of $160.13. It would need to fall to $160.13 to cross below the line.
What is EXPE's 200-week moving average price?
Expedia Group Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $160.13 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when EXPE drops below its 200-week moving average?
EXPE has crossed below its 200-week moving average 17 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +8.1%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 16 weeks on average.
Is EXPE a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about EXPE as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 65. Free cash flow yield is 9.8%. Return on equity is 71.5%. Price-to-book is 61.4x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does EXPE compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 20.2 years, $100 invested in EXPE would have grown to $1511, compared to $848 for the S&P 500. That's 14.4% annualized vs 11.2% for the index. EXPE has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does EXPE pay a dividend?
Yes. Expedia Group Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 60.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31