EXP
Eagle Materials Inc. Basic Materials - Building Materials Investor Relations →
Eagle Materials Inc. (EXP) closed at $176.82 as of 2026-09-18, trading 15.7% below its 200-week moving average of $209.72. This places EXP in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -11.8% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 33, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.6x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.02 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1644 weeks of data, EXP has crossed below its 200-week moving average 24 times. On average, these episodes lasted 16 weeks. Historically, investors who bought EXP at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +14.8%.
With a market cap of $5.4 billion, EXP is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 0.5%. Return on equity stands at 27.0%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 3.7x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 12.7% over the past three years.
Over the past 31.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in EXP would have grown to $6135, compared to $2624 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 13.9% vs 10.9% for the index — confirming EXP as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -22.9% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: EXP vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After EXP Crosses Below the Line?
Across 23 historical episodes, buying EXP when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +18.9% after 12 months (median +22.0%), compared to +2.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 75% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +66.5% vs +19.7% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment EXP crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices EXP would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where EXP's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-29.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $177.63 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $199.84 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $228.41 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $266.51 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $319.87 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | $3.38 | $3.29 | -2.8% |
| 2026-05-19 | $1.57 | $1.91 | +21.7% |
| 2026-01-29 | $3.36 | $3.22 | -4.1% |
| 2025-10-30 | $4.35 | $4.23 | -2.7% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from EXP's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
EXP has crossed below its 200-week MA 24 times with an average 1-year return of +14.8% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 1995 | Jun 1995 | 1 | 2.2% | +30.9% | +6635.2% |
| Feb 2000 | Apr 2000 | 9 | 21.6% | +9.8% | +2671.4% |
| Jun 2000 | Jun 2001 | 55 | 27.3% | +2.1% | +2438.1% |
| Aug 2001 | Oct 2001 | 11 | 14.2% | +21.7% | +2219.3% |
| Nov 2001 | Jan 2002 | 10 | 8.4% | +15.2% | +2213.9% |
| Feb 2002 | Feb 2002 | 3 | 2.7% | +3.6% | +2246.8% |
| Oct 2002 | Oct 2002 | 1 | 1.4% | +59.9% | +2214.4% |
| Nov 2007 | Nov 2007 | 1 | 1.5% | -51.2% | +496.1% |
| Dec 2007 | Apr 2010 | 121 | 57.2% | -49.1% | +482.4% |
| May 2010 | Jan 2011 | 39 | 25.7% | -5.8% | +563.2% |
| May 2011 | May 2011 | 1 | 0.9% | +35.2% | +620.9% |
| Jun 2011 | Jun 2011 | 1 | 1.8% | +28.5% | +634.8% |
| Jul 2011 | Dec 2011 | 23 | 37.1% | +60.6% | +690.3% |
| Oct 2015 | Apr 2016 | 25 | 29.1% | +18.6% | +184.3% |
| Sep 2016 | Sep 2016 | 2 | 2.8% | +39.0% | +148.7% |
| Sep 2018 | Apr 2019 | 28 | 32.5% | +5.1% | +116.0% |
| May 2019 | Jun 2019 | 1 | 0.6% | -22.0% | +113.1% |
| Jul 2019 | Sep 2019 | 10 | 6.7% | -16.6% | +114.6% |
| Feb 2020 | Oct 2020 | 35 | 50.2% | +36.1% | +111.7% |
| Oct 2020 | Nov 2020 | 3 | 4.2% | +74.6% | +114.0% |
| Mar 2026 | Apr 2026 | 6 | 13.0% | N/A | -9.8% |
| May 2026 | May 2026 | 2 | 3.7% | N/A | -8.9% |
| Jul 2026 | Aug 2026 | 3 | 1.1% | N/A | -14.0% |
| Aug 2026 | Ongoing | 5+ | 15.7% | Ongoing | -14.5% |
| Average | 16 | — | +14.8% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is EXP below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-09-18, Eagle Materials Inc. (EXP) is trading 15.7% below its 200-week moving average of $209.72. The current price is $176.82.
What is EXP's 200-week moving average price?
Eagle Materials Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $209.72 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when EXP drops below its 200-week moving average?
EXP has crossed below its 200-week moving average 24 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +14.8%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 16 weeks on average.
Is EXP a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about EXP as of 2026-09-18: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 33. Free cash flow yield is 0.5%. Return on equity is 27.0%. Price-to-book is 3.7x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does EXP compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 31.6 years, $100 invested in EXP would have grown to $6135, compared to $2624 for the S&P 500. That's 13.9% annualized vs 10.9% for the index. EXP has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does EXP pay a dividend?
Yes. Eagle Materials Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 57.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18