EXEL
Exelixis Inc. Healthcare - Biotechnology Investor Relations →
Exelixis Inc. (EXEL) closed at $51.91 as of 2026-06-19, trading 77.1% above its 200-week moving average of $29.31. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 82.3% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 84, EXEL is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.4x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.84 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1317 weeks of data, EXEL has crossed below its 200-week moving average 23 times. On average, these episodes lasted 31 weeks. Historically, investors who bought EXEL at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +36.9%.
With a market cap of $13.0 billion, EXEL is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 4.8%. Return on equity stands at 41.0%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 6.8x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 19.0% over the past three years. EXEL passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 25.3 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in EXEL would have grown to $598, compared to $1011 for the S&P 500. EXEL has returned 7.3% annualized vs 9.6% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 55.6% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: EXEL vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After EXEL Crosses Below the Line?
Across 23 historical episodes, buying EXEL when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +43.3% after 12 months (median +15.0%), compared to +12.2% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 65% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +54.5% vs +25.2% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment EXEL crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices EXEL would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where EXEL's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-08-04.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $39.79 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $42.19 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $44.91 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $47.99 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $51.53 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from EXEL's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
EXEL has crossed below its 200-week MA 23 times with an average 1-year return of +36.9% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2001 | Dec 2004 | 194 | 81.4% | +58.7% | +497.5% |
| Jan 2005 | Jul 2005 | 26 | 31.0% | +20.8% | +502.9% |
| Aug 2005 | Oct 2005 | 12 | 9.6% | -6.0% | +544.8% |
| Aug 2006 | Aug 2006 | 3 | 7.4% | +32.2% | +585.7% |
| Nov 2007 | Dec 2007 | 5 | 11.9% | -61.5% | +472.3% |
| Dec 2007 | Dec 2010 | 155 | 72.1% | -44.4% | +485.2% |
| Aug 2011 | Aug 2011 | 1 | 4.8% | -28.8% | +744.1% |
| Sep 2011 | Jul 2012 | 43 | 36.7% | -10.2% | +738.6% |
| Jul 2012 | Dec 2013 | 73 | 28.9% | -5.9% | +830.3% |
| Mar 2014 | Jul 2015 | 69 | 75.5% | -24.9% | +1435.8% |
| Jan 2016 | Jan 2016 | 1 | 4.9% | +337.6% | +1127.2% |
| Feb 2016 | Apr 2016 | 10 | 13.1% | +425.7% | +1136.0% |
| Sep 2019 | Feb 2020 | 20 | 15.6% | +32.4% | +188.4% |
| Feb 2020 | Apr 2020 | 8 | 24.1% | +16.5% | +179.2% |
| Aug 2020 | Sep 2020 | 1 | 3.7% | -4.4% | +151.1% |
| Oct 2020 | Jan 2021 | 10 | 13.2% | +5.0% | +153.5% |
| Feb 2021 | Mar 2021 | 1 | 0.5% | -6.8% | +139.7% |
| Jun 2021 | Sep 2021 | 13 | 22.4% | +18.1% | +184.3% |
| Nov 2021 | Feb 2022 | 17 | 23.8% | -15.0% | +168.1% |
| May 2022 | Jun 2022 | 6 | 13.3% | -4.5% | +158.5% |
| Aug 2022 | Jul 2023 | 51 | 25.2% | +10.5% | +166.5% |
| Oct 2023 | Oct 2023 | 1 | 0.0% | +38.0% | +157.0% |
| Feb 2024 | Feb 2024 | 2 | 1.4% | +65.6% | +156.7% |
| Average | 31 | — | +36.9% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is EXEL below its 200-week moving average?
No. Exelixis Inc. (EXEL) is currently 77.1% above its 200-week moving average of $29.31. It would need to fall to $29.31 to cross below the line.
What is EXEL's 200-week moving average price?
Exelixis Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $29.31 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when EXEL drops below its 200-week moving average?
EXEL has crossed below its 200-week moving average 23 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +36.9%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 31 weeks on average.
Is EXEL a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about EXEL as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 84 (overbought). Free cash flow yield is 4.8%. Return on equity is 41.0%. Price-to-book is 6.8x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does EXEL compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 25.3 years, $100 invested in EXEL would have grown to $598, compared to $1011 for the S&P 500. That's 7.3% annualized vs 9.6% for the index. EXEL has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19