EXE
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Expand Energy Corporation (EXE) closed at $94.03 as of 2026-07-31, trading 6.5% above its 200-week moving average of $88.26. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 3.8% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 47, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.4x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.05 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 237 weeks of data, EXE has crossed below its 200-week moving average 3 times. On average, these episodes lasted 1 weeks. Historically, investors who bought EXE at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +39.2%.
With a market cap of $21.8 billion, EXE is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 6.7%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 14.9%. The stock trades at 1.1x book value.
Share count has increased 77.6% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 4.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in EXE would have grown to $175, compared to $176 for the S&P 500. EXE has returned 13.0% annualized vs 13.2% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -10.6% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: EXE vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After EXE Crosses Below the Line?
Across 1 historical episodes, buying EXE when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +30.0% after 12 months (median +30.0%), compared to +18.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 100% of those episodes were profitable after one year.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment EXE crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices EXE would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where EXE's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $87.98 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $92.53 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $97.58 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $103.21 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $109.53 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from EXE's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
EXE has crossed below its 200-week MA 3 times with an average 1-year return of +39.2% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2024 | Sep 2024 | 1 | 0.4% | +39.2% | +39.3% |
| Jun 2026 | Jun 2026 | 1 | 1.3% | N/A | +8.1% |
| Jul 2026 | Jul 2026 | 2 | 1.0% | N/A | +7.8% |
| Average | 1 | — | +39.2% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is EXE below its 200-week moving average?
No. Expand Energy Corporation (EXE) is currently 6.5% above its 200-week moving average of $88.26. It would need to fall to $88.26 to cross below the line.
What is EXE's 200-week moving average price?
Expand Energy Corporation's 200-week moving average is $88.26 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when EXE drops below its 200-week moving average?
EXE has crossed below its 200-week moving average 3 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +39.2%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 1 weeks on average.
Is EXE a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about EXE as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 47. Free cash flow yield is 6.7%. Return on equity is 14.9%. Price-to-book is 1.1x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does EXE compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 4.6 years, $100 invested in EXE would have grown to $175, compared to $176 for the S&P 500. That's 13.0% annualized vs 13.2% for the index. EXE has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does EXE pay a dividend?
Yes. Expand Energy Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 245.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31