EXC
Exelon Corporation Utilities - Electric Investor Relations →
Exelon Corporation (EXC) closed at $42.07 as of 2026-09-18, trading 8.2% above its 200-week moving average of $38.88. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 11.1% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 34, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.1x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.00 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2737 weeks of data, EXC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 28 times. On average, these episodes lasted 21 weeks. Historically, investors who bought EXC at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +22.2%.
With a market cap of $43.3 billion, EXC is a large-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at 9.7%. The stock trades at 1.5x book value.
Share count has increased 2.9% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 33.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in EXC would have grown to $1628, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. EXC has returned 8.6% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: EXC vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After EXC Crosses Below the Line?
Across 19 historical episodes, buying EXC when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +22.3% after 12 months (median +21.0%), compared to +19.2% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 79% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +51.9% vs +38.7% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment EXC crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. EXC currently has negative free cash flow, so price-based dislocation levels are not available. The score still tracks yield deviation from baseline.
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | $0.45 | $0.43 | -3.9% |
| 2026-05-06 | $0.89 | $0.91 | +2.6% |
| 2026-02-12 | $0.55 | $0.59 | +8.0% |
| 2025-11-04 | $0.78 | $0.86 | +10.5% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from EXC's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
EXC has crossed below its 200-week MA 28 times with an average 1-year return of +22.2% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1974 | Jun 1975 | 60 | 41.3% | -18.8% | +20166.0% |
| Sep 1975 | Oct 1975 | 2 | 0.6% | +47.9% | +22519.8% |
| Nov 1979 | Dec 1979 | 8 | 3.2% | +4.5% | +13586.2% |
| Jan 1980 | May 1980 | 15 | 13.4% | +2.5% | +13586.2% |
| Aug 1980 | Sep 1980 | 1 | 0.9% | +13.1% | +12942.5% |
| Sep 1980 | May 1981 | 35 | 8.7% | +13.1% | +13065.5% |
| Jul 1984 | Jul 1984 | 2 | 8.8% | +67.7% | +9065.2% |
| Apr 1990 | Oct 1990 | 30 | 12.3% | +27.3% | +3081.2% |
| Nov 1990 | Nov 1990 | 1 | 0.7% | +50.9% | +3004.6% |
| Apr 1996 | May 1996 | 4 | 2.5% | -14.3% | +1424.9% |
| May 1996 | Jun 1996 | 4 | 3.9% | -16.7% | +1406.6% |
| Jul 1996 | Oct 1996 | 15 | 4.9% | -4.2% | +1414.3% |
| Jan 1997 | Aug 1997 | 29 | 19.4% | -10.7% | +1457.6% |
| Jan 1998 | Apr 1998 | 11 | 14.5% | +109.0% | +1644.9% |
| Oct 2001 | Nov 2001 | 2 | 3.0% | +23.2% | +626.8% |
| Jul 2002 | Jul 2002 | 3 | 7.7% | +30.0% | +540.3% |
| Sep 2002 | Sep 2002 | 3 | 5.1% | +39.8% | +548.8% |
| Oct 2002 | Oct 2002 | 1 | 1.5% | +46.0% | +529.9% |
| Sep 2008 | Mar 2014 | 287 | 34.6% | -17.0% | +99.4% |
| Jul 2014 | Aug 2014 | 6 | 5.3% | +8.2% | +184.4% |
| Mar 2015 | Mar 2015 | 2 | 0.4% | +7.5% | +175.3% |
| Jul 2015 | Jul 2015 | 1 | 3.0% | +25.9% | +184.8% |
| Aug 2015 | Feb 2016 | 23 | 15.4% | +12.2% | +177.6% |
| Nov 2016 | Nov 2016 | 1 | 0.6% | +41.6% | +176.8% |
| Mar 2020 | Oct 2020 | 30 | 20.0% | +21.8% | +105.0% |
| Feb 2021 | Mar 2021 | 1 | 2.8% | +61.3% | +87.5% |
| Jan 2024 | Feb 2024 | 3 | 2.9% | +21.3% | +35.9% |
| Jun 2024 | Jul 2024 | 4 | 3.4% | +27.3% | +31.5% |
| Average | 21 | — | +22.2% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is EXC below its 200-week moving average?
No. Exelon Corporation (EXC) is currently 8.2% above its 200-week moving average of $38.88. It would need to fall to $38.88 to cross below the line.
What is EXC's 200-week moving average price?
Exelon Corporation's 200-week moving average is $38.88 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when EXC drops below its 200-week moving average?
EXC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 28 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +22.2%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 21 weeks on average.
Is EXC a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about EXC as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 34. Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is 9.7%. Price-to-book is 1.5x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does EXC compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.8 years, $100 invested in EXC would have grown to $1628, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That's 8.6% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. EXC has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does EXC pay a dividend?
Yes. Exelon Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 399.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18