EXC
Exelon Corporation Utilities - Electric Investor Relations →
Exelon Corporation (EXC) closed at $45.81 as of 2026-06-19, trading 18.9% above its 200-week moving average of $38.54. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 20.0% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 40, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.3x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.81 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2724 weeks of data, EXC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 29 times. On average, these episodes lasted 20 weeks. Historically, investors who bought EXC at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +23.4%.
With a market cap of $46.9 billion, EXC is a large-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at 9.8%. The stock trades at 1.6x book value.
Share count has increased 2.9% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in EXC would have grown to $1756, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. EXC has returned 8.9% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: EXC vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After EXC Crosses Below the Line?
Across 19 historical episodes, buying EXC when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +22.3% after 12 months (median +21.0%), compared to +19.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 79% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +51.5% vs +38.8% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment EXC crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. EXC currently has negative free cash flow, so price-based dislocation levels are not available. The score still tracks yield deviation from baseline.
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from EXC's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
EXC has crossed below its 200-week MA 29 times with an average 1-year return of +23.4% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1974 | Jun 1975 | 60 | 41.2% | -18.8% | +21759.5% |
| Sep 1975 | Oct 1975 | 2 | 0.4% | +47.9% | +24298.4% |
| Nov 1979 | Dec 1979 | 8 | 4.1% | +4.2% | +15126.9% |
| Jan 1980 | May 1980 | 15 | 13.2% | +2.5% | +14662.3% |
| Aug 1980 | Sep 1980 | 2 | 2.8% | +12.6% | +14288.2% |
| Sep 1980 | May 1981 | 36 | 8.5% | +13.1% | +14100.7% |
| Jul 1984 | Jul 1984 | 2 | 8.6% | +67.7% | +9785.9% |
| Aug 1984 | Aug 1984 | 1 | 2.7% | +59.2% | +9895.7% |
| Apr 1990 | Oct 1990 | 30 | 12.1% | +27.3% | +3331.4% |
| Nov 1990 | Nov 1990 | 1 | 0.5% | +50.9% | +3248.7% |
| Apr 1996 | May 1996 | 4 | 2.4% | -14.3% | +1544.8% |
| May 1996 | Jun 1996 | 4 | 3.8% | -16.7% | +1525.1% |
| Jul 1996 | Oct 1996 | 15 | 5.4% | -4.2% | +1533.4% |
| Jan 1997 | Aug 1997 | 29 | 19.3% | -10.7% | +1580.0% |
| Jan 1998 | Apr 1998 | 11 | 14.4% | +109.0% | +1782.1% |
| Oct 2001 | Nov 2001 | 2 | 3.0% | +23.2% | +683.9% |
| Jul 2002 | Jul 2002 | 3 | 7.6% | +30.0% | +590.7% |
| Sep 2002 | Sep 2002 | 3 | 5.1% | +39.8% | +599.8% |
| Oct 2002 | Oct 2002 | 1 | 1.4% | +46.0% | +579.5% |
| Sep 2008 | Mar 2014 | 287 | 34.6% | -17.0% | +115.1% |
| Jul 2014 | Aug 2014 | 6 | 5.2% | +8.2% | +206.8% |
| Mar 2015 | Mar 2015 | 1 | 0.3% | +7.5% | +196.9% |
| Jul 2015 | Jul 2015 | 1 | 2.9% | +25.9% | +207.2% |
| Aug 2015 | Feb 2016 | 23 | 15.3% | +12.2% | +199.4% |
| Nov 2016 | Nov 2016 | 1 | 1.5% | +43.0% | +201.5% |
| Mar 2020 | Oct 2020 | 30 | 20.0% | +21.8% | +121.1% |
| Feb 2021 | Mar 2021 | 2 | 2.7% | +60.0% | +102.2% |
| Jan 2024 | Feb 2024 | 2 | 2.9% | +21.3% | +46.6% |
| Jun 2024 | Jul 2024 | 4 | 3.3% | +27.3% | +41.8% |
| Average | 20 | — | +23.4% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is EXC below its 200-week moving average?
No. Exelon Corporation (EXC) is currently 18.9% above its 200-week moving average of $38.54. It would need to fall to $38.54 to cross below the line.
What is EXC's 200-week moving average price?
Exelon Corporation's 200-week moving average is $38.54 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when EXC drops below its 200-week moving average?
EXC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 29 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +23.4%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 20 weeks on average.
Is EXC a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about EXC as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 40. Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is 9.8%. Price-to-book is 1.6x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does EXC compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in EXC would have grown to $1756, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 8.9% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. EXC has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19