ETSY
Etsy Inc. Consumer Discretionary - E-Commerce Investor Relations →
Etsy Inc. (ETSY) closed at $57.82 as of 2026-02-02, trading 23.2% below its 200-week moving average of $75.24. This places ETSY in the extreme value zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -29.9% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 44, indicating neutral momentum.
Over the past 516 weeks of data, ETSY has crossed below its 200-week moving average 8 times. On average, these episodes lasted 28 weeks. Historically, investors who bought ETSY at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +114.6%.
With a market cap of $5.7 billion, ETSY is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 9.5%, which is notably high. The stock trades at -5.1x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 14.6% over the past three years.
Over the past 10 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ETSY would have grown to $667, compared to $396 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 20.9% vs 14.8% for the index — confirming ETSY as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 4.5% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Growth of $100: ETSY vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After ETSY Crosses Below the Line?
Across 8 historical episodes, buying ETSY when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +80.1% after 12 months (median +42.0%), compared to +24.5% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 75% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +194.1% vs +42.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ETSY crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
ETSY has crossed below its 200-week MA 8 times with an average 1-year return of +114.6% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2016 | Aug 2016 | 19 | 36.3% | +11.6% | +553.3% |
| Oct 2016 | Nov 2016 | 2 | 7.6% | +44.9% | +405.0% |
| Nov 2016 | Jan 2017 | 5 | 4.9% | +42.3% | +388.8% |
| Feb 2017 | May 2017 | 11 | 21.4% | +152.3% | +467.4% |
| Mar 2020 | Mar 2020 | 1 | 5.1% | +579.7% | +82.5% |
| Apr 2022 | Nov 2022 | 32 | 37.3% | +3.7% | -41.2% |
| Dec 2022 | Jan 2023 | 2 | 2.5% | -32.3% | -51.7% |
| Feb 2023 | Ongoing | 155+ | 60.2% | Ongoing | -53.4% |
| Average | 28 | — | +114.6% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02