ETHE
Grayscale Ethereum Trust Financial - Crypto ETF Investor Relations →
Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE) closed at $15.05 as of 2026-07-31, trading 17.6% below its 200-week moving average of $18.25. This places ETHE in the extreme value zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -17.6% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 32, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.1x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.82 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 324 weeks of data, ETHE has crossed below its 200-week moving average 6 times. On average, these episodes lasted 20 weeks. Historically, investors who bought ETHE at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +108.6%.
Over the past 6.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ETHE would have grown to $126, compared to $268 for the S&P 500. ETHE has returned 3.8% annualized vs 17.1% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Growth of $100: ETHE vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After ETHE Crosses Below the Line?
Across 6 historical episodes, buying ETHE when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +152.2% after 12 months (median +100.0%), compared to +22.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 75% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +101.7% vs +26.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ETHE crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from ETHE's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
ETHE has crossed below its 200-week MA 6 times with an average 1-year return of +108.6% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2020 | Jul 2020 | 2 | 8.3% | +161.4% | +119.2% |
| Aug 2020 | Nov 2020 | 13 | 48.1% | +308.8% | +126.8% |
| May 2022 | Nov 2023 | 78 | 69.1% | -42.5% | +21.0% |
| Mar 2025 | May 2025 | 8 | 26.5% | +6.7% | -5.6% |
| Feb 2026 | Apr 2026 | 9 | 11.4% | N/A | -9.5% |
| May 2026 | Ongoing | 12+ | 29.9% | Ongoing | -16.2% |
| Average | 20 | — | +108.6% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ETHE below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-07-31, Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE) is trading 17.6% below its 200-week moving average of $18.25. The current price is $15.05.
What is ETHE's 200-week moving average price?
Grayscale Ethereum Trust's 200-week moving average is $18.25 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when ETHE drops below its 200-week moving average?
ETHE has crossed below its 200-week moving average 6 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +108.6%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 20 weeks on average.
Is ETHE a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about ETHE as of 2026-07-31: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 32. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does ETHE compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 6.2 years, $100 invested in ETHE would have grown to $126, compared to $268 for the S&P 500. That's 3.8% annualized vs 17.1% for the index. ETHE has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does ETHE pay a dividend?
Yes. Grayscale Ethereum Trust currently pays a dividend yield of 139.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31