ETHE
Grayscale Ethereum Trust Financial - Crypto ETF Investor Relations →
Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE) closed at $21.22 as of 2026-09-18, trading 14.1% above its 200-week moving average of $18.59. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 10.3% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 87, ETHE is in overbought territory.
A big jump in activity this week — 2.4x the usual volume, and the price went up. Significantly more people than usual decided to buy. This kind of surge, especially on a stock already below its 200-week average, can be an early sign that sentiment is shifting.
Over the past 331 weeks of data, ETHE has crossed below its 200-week moving average 6 times. On average, these episodes lasted 21 weeks. Historically, investors who bought ETHE at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +108.6%.
Over the past 6.4 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ETHE would have grown to $178, compared to $274 for the S&P 500. ETHE has returned 9.4% annualized vs 17.0% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Growth of $100: ETHE vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After ETHE Crosses Below the Line?
Across 6 historical episodes, buying ETHE when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +152.2% after 12 months (median +100.0%), compared to +22.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 75% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +101.7% vs +26.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ETHE crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from ETHE's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
ETHE has crossed below its 200-week MA 6 times with an average 1-year return of +108.6% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2020 | Jul 2020 | 2 | 8.3% | +161.4% | +209.9% |
| Aug 2020 | Nov 2020 | 13 | 48.1% | +308.8% | +220.6% |
| May 2022 | Nov 2023 | 78 | 69.1% | -42.5% | +71.1% |
| Mar 2025 | May 2025 | 8 | 26.5% | +6.7% | +33.4% |
| Feb 2026 | Apr 2026 | 9 | 11.4% | N/A | +27.9% |
| May 2026 | Aug 2026 | 14 | 29.9% | N/A | +18.4% |
| Average | 21 | — | +108.6% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ETHE below its 200-week moving average?
No. Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE) is currently 14.1% above its 200-week moving average of $18.59. It would need to fall to $18.59 to cross below the line.
What is ETHE's 200-week moving average price?
Grayscale Ethereum Trust's 200-week moving average is $18.59 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when ETHE drops below its 200-week moving average?
ETHE has crossed below its 200-week moving average 6 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +108.6%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 21 weeks on average.
Is ETHE a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about ETHE as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 87 (overbought). This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does ETHE compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 6.4 years, $100 invested in ETHE would have grown to $178, compared to $274 for the S&P 500. That's 9.4% annualized vs 17.0% for the index. ETHE has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does ETHE pay a dividend?
Yes. Grayscale Ethereum Trust currently pays a dividend yield of 111.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18