ET
Energy Transfer LP Energy - Pipelines Investor Relations →
Energy Transfer LP (ET) closed at $21.14 as of 2026-09-18, trading 47.9% above its 200-week moving average of $14.29. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 51.4% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 81, ET is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.3x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.83 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1028 weeks of data, ET has crossed below its 200-week moving average 15 times. On average, these episodes lasted 21 weeks. The average one-year return after crossing below was -5.0%, suggesting these dips have not historically been reliable buying opportunities for this stock.
With a market cap of $72.8 billion, ET is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 4.3%. Return on equity stands at 14.6%. The stock trades at 2.3x book value.
Share count has increased 11.2% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 19.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ET would have grown to $1044, compared to $760 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 12.6% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming ET as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 3 open-market purchases totaling $55,273,520.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: ET vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After ET Crosses Below the Line?
Across 15 historical episodes, buying ET when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -4.4% after 12 months (median -5.0%), compared to +5.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 33% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +16.1% vs +26.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ET crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices ET would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where ET's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-11-04.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $18.53 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $19.23 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $19.99 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $20.81 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $21.69 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | $0.37 | $0.59 | +60.4% |
| 2026-05-05 | $0.37 | $0.35 | -6.8% |
| 2026-02-17 | $0.30 | $0.33 | +8.4% |
| 2025-11-05 | $0.28 | $0.28 | +1.8% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
the write-ups I read Simply Wall St · Visual company reports and write-ups. Free tier covers five reports a month. referral
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from ET's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
ET has crossed below its 200-week MA 15 times with an average 1-year return of +-5.0% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2008 | Mar 2008 | 2 | 1.8% | -27.2% | +969.6% |
| Jun 2008 | Apr 2009 | 44 | 53.2% | -4.6% | +987.4% |
| May 2009 | May 2009 | 1 | 3.4% | +35.8% | +1065.1% |
| Jun 2009 | Jul 2009 | 4 | 4.6% | +42.3% | +1080.3% |
| Nov 2015 | Dec 2016 | 58 | 70.0% | +2.7% | +186.5% |
| Jan 2017 | Jan 2017 | 3 | 3.9% | +3.4% | +154.8% |
| Mar 2017 | Mar 2017 | 1 | 1.0% | -10.3% | +152.1% |
| Apr 2017 | May 2018 | 59 | 21.1% | -14.3% | +153.6% |
| Jun 2018 | Jul 2018 | 3 | 0.9% | -11.1% | +149.1% |
| Oct 2018 | Mar 2019 | 20 | 23.3% | -11.9% | +172.6% |
| May 2019 | Jun 2019 | 2 | 3.3% | -33.9% | +188.9% |
| Aug 2019 | Sep 2019 | 4 | 3.2% | -44.1% | +188.3% |
| Sep 2019 | May 2021 | 88 | 64.7% | -52.3% | +196.5% |
| Jul 2021 | Sep 2021 | 11 | 8.1% | +8.5% | +229.6% |
| Oct 2021 | Jan 2022 | 13 | 12.9% | +41.5% | +230.0% |
| Average | 21 | — | +-5.0% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ET below its 200-week moving average?
No. Energy Transfer LP (ET) is currently 47.9% above its 200-week moving average of $14.29. It would need to fall to $14.29 to cross below the line.
What is ET's 200-week moving average price?
Energy Transfer LP's 200-week moving average is $14.29 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when ET drops below its 200-week moving average?
ET has crossed below its 200-week moving average 15 times in our data. The average one-year return after these crossings was -5.0%, meaning the dips were not reliable buying signals for this particular stock. These episodes lasted 21 weeks on average.
Is ET a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about ET as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 81 (overbought). Free cash flow yield is 4.3%. Return on equity is 14.6%. Price-to-book is 2.3x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does ET compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 19.8 years, $100 invested in ET would have grown to $1044, compared to $760 for the S&P 500. That's 12.6% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. ET has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does ET pay a dividend?
Yes. Energy Transfer LP currently pays a dividend yield of 643.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18