ESTC
Elastic N.V. Technology - Search Software Investor Relations →
Elastic N.V. (ESTC) closed at $86.96 as of 2026-09-18, trading 6.8% above its 200-week moving average of $81.45. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 2.6% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 68, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.3x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.99 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 367 weeks of data, ESTC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 8 times. On average, these episodes lasted 26 weeks. The average one-year return after crossing below was -9.0%, suggesting these dips have not historically been reliable buying opportunities for this stock.
With a market cap of $9.1 billion, ESTC is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 5.5%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 33.1%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 7.0x book value.
Share count has increased 7.6% over three years, indicating dilution. ESTC passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 7.1 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ESTC would have grown to $102, compared to $284 for the S&P 500. ESTC has returned 0.2% annualized vs 15.9% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 1 open-market purchase totaling $710,230.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 113.7% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: ESTC vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After ESTC Crosses Below the Line?
Across 8 historical episodes, buying ESTC when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -9.7% after 12 months (median -20.0%), compared to +13.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 33% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +35.0% vs +38.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ESTC crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices ESTC would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where ESTC's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-11-19.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $70.93 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $77.08 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $84.40 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $93.26 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $104.20 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | $0.58 | $0.70 | +19.9% |
| 2026-05-28 | $0.56 | $0.61 | +8.4% |
| 2026-02-26 | $0.65 | $0.73 | +13.0% |
| 2025-11-20 | $0.58 | $0.64 | +11.1% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from ESTC's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
ESTC has crossed below its 200-week MA 8 times with an average 1-year return of +-9.0% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2019 | May 2020 | 31 | 38.0% | +69.2% | +22.1% |
| Jan 2022 | Nov 2023 | 98 | 51.2% | -45.8% | -8.0% |
| Apr 2024 | Apr 2024 | 3 | 3.2% | -21.9% | -10.8% |
| Aug 2024 | Nov 2024 | 12 | 29.7% | +11.6% | +14.1% |
| Mar 2025 | May 2025 | 7 | 19.1% | -47.1% | -5.1% |
| May 2025 | Sep 2025 | 14 | 15.2% | -20.0% | +7.5% |
| Oct 2025 | Oct 2025 | 1 | 3.8% | N/A | +7.1% |
| Nov 2025 | Aug 2026 | 38 | 47.4% | N/A | +24.2% |
| Average | 26 | — | +-9.0% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ESTC below its 200-week moving average?
No. Elastic N.V. (ESTC) is currently 6.8% above its 200-week moving average of $81.45. It would need to fall to $81.45 to cross below the line.
What is ESTC's 200-week moving average price?
Elastic N.V.'s 200-week moving average is $81.45 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when ESTC drops below its 200-week moving average?
ESTC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 8 times in our data. The average one-year return after these crossings was -9.0%, meaning the dips were not reliable buying signals for this particular stock. These episodes lasted 26 weeks on average.
Is ESTC a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about ESTC as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 68. Free cash flow yield is 5.5%. Return on equity is 33.1%. Price-to-book is 7.0x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does ESTC compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 7.1 years, $100 invested in ESTC would have grown to $102, compared to $284 for the S&P 500. That's 0.2% annualized vs 15.9% for the index. ESTC has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18